Multiple bands of thunderstorms occurred during the evening hours. The storms occurred in the warm sector of a surface low centered over northeast Kansas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Multiple bands of thunderstorms occurred during the evening hours. The storms occurred in the warm sector of a surface low centered over northeast Kansas. The storms were far removed from the primary surface fronts, but a 500 mb shortwave rotating northeast toward the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley provided strong forcing for storms. The storms produced locally heavy rainfall that caused minor flooding of roads.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 5:33 PM CST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 533 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 A little lift assistance with the passing front, some shear enhancement with the upper jet max rotating thru, and some potential Cape spells a marginal risk of severe for portions of the FA this afternoon. Storm chances will wane with nightfall but linger into the evening, not gone completely til the very slow fropa is completed. After that, seasonally cooler and drier air returns more early January "normal" temperatures to the forecast, with 50s/40s replacing 70s/60s for highs, and 30s/20s replacing the most recent 40s for lows. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 Mainly dry conditions are expected in the long term with near to slightly above normal temperatures. The upper level flow will primarily feature a progressive zonal flow with embedded weak shortwaves. The first disturbance is depicted moving from the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday with an associated surface low. Return flow moisture looks fairly limited with this, so QPF amounts look quite light (generally no more than 0.10-0.20"). The Canadian ensemble mean is the most aggressive with the QPF and still only has 0.33" to 0.40". This seems overdone though, so leaning towards the lighter side of the envelope. Guidance differs somewhat on the exit timing, with some suggesting the rain being done by sunset on Saturday and others lingering it into Sunday morning. Ensemble members are all over the place regarding the timing of another weak shortwave sometime early next week, so have kept most of this time period dry for now until we get better agreement. Whatever materializes, shouldn't have much of an impact, with only light QPF expected. && .AVIATION... Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 MVFR cigs are moving eastward out of the Quad State region this evening. Isolated showers may pop up around Evansville and areas to the south early this evening. Should this happen, a thunderstorm is a possibility but the overall probability is low enough to leave thunder out for now. Cigs lift during the evening, then 4-5 kft clouds move in around early morning. Skies clear up late tomorrow. Winds drop to around 5 kts overnight, shifting to the west, then increase tomorrow to 10-12 kts, gusting to 16-20 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...ATL AVIATION...ATL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 544 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-042345- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 544 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 /644 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight across southwest Indiana and western Kentucky. The main hazards with any storms will be brief heavy downpours and dangerous lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. York
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
453 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW HOPKINSVILLE 36.84N 87.53W
01/03/2023 CHRISTIAN KY TRAINED SPOTTER
ROOF TORN OFF PART OF HOUSE. SEVERAL TREES
UPROOTED. DAMAGE WAS ALONG PYLE LN NEAR COX
MILL ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
&&
SPThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported minor flooding of low-lying roads in southern portions of the county. Rainfall amounts were generally between 2 and 3 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1070960.