Precipitation deficits over the previous several months yielded D2 drought in Atchison County MO going into February. D2 drought finally improved by Feb 21st.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
Precipitation deficits over the previous several months yielded D2 drought in Atchison County MO going into February. D2 drought finally improved by Feb 21st.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:39 PM CST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1039 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 .Discussion... Issued at 324 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2023 Key Messages: - Temperatures Returning Normal This Week - Dry Forecast Through The Weekend - Temperatures May Reach Above Normal This Weekend Discussion: The western two-thirds of the CONUS is under a split-flow regime with the the 300mb and 500mb jet coupling over Iowa and Missouri. A general trough axis can be drawn from the Nebraska Panhandle southwest to the Baja Peninsula. There are two distinct vorticity maxima though, one located off the Colorado Front Range and the second associated with short-wave that is working on becoming a closed-low into the desert southwest. A broad 1034mb surface high pressure has been keeping conditions dry for most of the Midwest and Plains along and north of Interstate 70 toward the Canadian Border. The surface high pressure spans from west-central Kansas across Missouri into the western Great Lakes Region. The winds have been fairly light this afternoon as the forecast area sits in the middle of the high pressure. This has largely put an end to the CAA regime. Daytime insolation has helped temperatures into the upper 20s. There is an elevated thermal boundary (~850mb) across southeast Kansas into southern Missouri. This aligns with the area of the right entrance region of the coupled jet streaks and stronger dCVA, promoting lift from eastern Oklahoma to the western Ohio River Valley. The expansive cloud cover can be viewed on GOES 16 satellite imagery. Some cirrus clouds have been advected off the top of these showers into our area but has not been enough to keep temperatures down. For our counties,most of the troposphere including the boundary layer remains extremely dry and therefore no precipitation or drizzle will be able to punch through. Light flurries have been added through about 00z in our far southern counties, as the radar returns indicated a small band moving through that area. Any activity that is spotted will be very isolated. Tonight, the northern vorticity maxima begins to eject from the general trough axis region and will promote subtle H5 height falls across the region overnight and push the surface high pressure toward the east- southeast. However this should be fairly inconsequential with respect to sensible weather. This will actually help keep the activity along the elevated thermal boundary southeast of our forecast area. Light winds and clear skies will allow for stronger radiational cooling this evening along and north of Interstate 70. Expecting air temperatures to drop into the low to mid teens. A few locations may drop into the single digits. Low lying and drainage flow areas could potentially see temperatures tank as long the cloud cover in the south is kept in the south. With dewpoints in the single digits and below zero in a few spots, not expecting fog despite the cooling and calm winds. Tomorrow morning (Wednesday), the subtle vort max will push off to the east trailing the exiting jet streak. Another short-wave perturbation drops H5 heights over the High Plains and again the trough axis realigns with the axis associated with the southern trough (could be closed low system by Wednesday morning). As the trough axis moves toward the east, there will be a weak response at the surface over the Southern Plains, though the positive tilt to the southern trough is not quite creating a robust dCVA regime for textbook surface cyclogenesis. It will however be enough to start turning surface to 850mb southwesterly elevating H5 heights from the southern Plains to the southwestern Ozarks, and generates an area of weak diffluence. In addition this also creates more low-level convergence south of Interstate 44, that will continue to produce precipitation across Arkansas and maybe into southern Missouri. The northern vorticity max eventually arrives in our eastern Kansas Counties by early afternoon, and helps keep the developing activity to the south of the area in place there. We may see more cirrus clouds advect off the top and arrive but should not result in overcast conditions. The push of WAA will actually be strong enough to counter the northern vorticity maxima, and most guidance is depicting subtle H5 height rises through the afternoon then. The competing nature of these two areas of forcing will keep flow over our forecast area mostly zonal, though perhaps a bit brisk meanwhile keeping diffluence and better lifting mechanisms well south of the area. Temperatures for Wednesday afternoon are expected to be the upper 30s. A few locations in the far south may hit 40 if there are no high clouds that attempt to move in. Early in the week, there was a decent amount of spread with respect to the propagation speed of the northern stream and southern stream. For the most part, deterministic GFS and ECMWF are now in decent agreement that this largely sticks and moves together while it is west of the Mississippi River Valley. Thursday, the southern trough begins to work across the center of the southern Plains toward the Gulf Coast. Weak H5 height falls begin across the area again on Thursday and a modest vorticity max may move across the area. The positive tilt of the southern trough though will push the weak surface cyclone far to the east, and result in little moisture advection into our forecast area. An area of diffluent flow develops over Arkansas and extends into southern Missouri. There is a low-level mass convergence response over Arkansas that extends just north of the Missouri Stateline. The bulk of the forcing though will be kept well southward, where the Q-vector convergence is strongest ahead of the stronger dCVA with the southern trough. The combination of no forcing and no moisture return again keeps our forecast area dry. 12z GEFS and other ensemble suite probabilities for at least 0.01 inch of QPF is only 10 percent in our far southeast, and less than 5 percent elsewhere. Thursday, prior to the northern part of the trough axis clearing the region, southwesterly 925-850mb flow should allow for decent WAA through the morning that should help temperatures into the mid 40s. The one scenario though where the temperatures don't rise as drastically would be if a stronger vorticity maxima than is currently progged digs and brings colder air in by not allowing the 925-850mb winds to be southwesterly. The NBM spread in max temps for Thursday surprisingly is not as great as expected given the potential for that colder air to sink south, with a range at MCI of 44-49F. The GEFS ensemble spread is bit larger, with the lowest member around 33 and the highest member around 47F at MCI. For the most part, the amount of spread is the same for other locations as well. For Thursday, will stick with temperatures near the NBM 50th percentile, which provides upper 30s across the far north and upper 40s across our southern counties. Another factor that could play into Thursday temperatures would be potential for cloud cover. Friday afternoon, the trough axis should clear the Mississippi River Valley and amplified H5 ridge develops back toward the Rockies. Overall, this ridge axis should be quite progressive with more active flow back out over the Pacific. This will result in stronger mid to upper-level northwesterly flow across much of the Midwest, with strong AVA denoting a region of subsidence developing strong surface high pressure. This will sink southward with the northwesterly flow through the day on Friday and result in CAA regime across most of the forecast area, sending temperatures back into the mid 30s. This cool down will be brief though as the overall synoptic pattern becomes quite progressive with a few short-waves coming ashore. By Saturday, the H5 ridge axis shoots across the Central Plains and turns lower-level flow southwesterly, and boosts temperatures back into at least the upper 40s, and the upper range of NBM and other ensemble suites indicates some potential for mid 50s. Beyond next Sunday, most guidance points toward the warming trend continuing, with most of the short-wave perturbations focused north of the area before a strong PV anomaly sinks southward Monday. However there is some spread among model guidance that indicates a weak thermal boundary could move through and perhaps provide cooler temperatures. This progressive flow pattern will also allow precipitation potential to return by Monday, with ensemble probabilities for at least 0.01 inch of QPF reaching around 40 percent. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1036 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2023 VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with just ocnl few-sct high clouds this TAF cycle. Winds will be lgt out of the south thru 15Z when they will increase to around 10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && Discussion...Krull Aviation...73
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 342 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-010945- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 342 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Wind chill values will be near zero Tuesday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
February began with D2 drought across much of Atchison County, MO. Precipitation in early to mid February finally ended the D2 drought by the Feb 21st US Drought Monitor update.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1081508.