A stagnant pattern with weak easterly flow led to a diurnal development of thunderstorms, with one water-loaded storm collapsing with a burst of locally damaging wind gusts.
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The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
A stagnant pattern with weak easterly flow led to a diurnal development of thunderstorms, with one water-loaded storm collapsing with a burst of locally damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 3, 1:13 PM CST, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Key Messages: 1. The hot and dry pattern continues with daily highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. 2. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will continue daily. While coverage will vary, severe weather is not expected. .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 This Evening/Tonight: The warm and breezy day continues! Taking a look across the area, very summer-like conditions are on tap this afternoon with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Expect conditions to gradually continue to warm this afternoon with highs expected to be in mid to upper 80s and low 90s across the area. Taking a look at satellite imagery, a stratocumulus field has started to develop across the area in response to some weak instability aloft. As we continue into the afternoon, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will likely develop as we reach peak heating across the area. Nonetheless, coverage is still a bit uncertain; decided to follow the trend of high resolution guidance and decrease POPs to the 20-30 range since activity is expected to be widely scattered. While severe weather is not expected, a few stronger thunderstorm could produce small hail and an occasionally strong wind gust up to 45 mph. Expect the shower and thunderstorm activity to continue until about sunset before weakening. Otherwise, breezy southeasterly flow this afternoon will gradually weaken after sunset becoming more easterly overnight. Lows are expected to dip into the low to mid 60s as temperatures gradually decrease . Sunday: Looking into the latter part of the weekend, another warm and mostly dry day will be likely be on tap. Taking a look aloft, upper level ridging continues to circulate over the northerly plains as a closed low pressure system dips southward over the eastern CONUS. Otherwise, Sunday should be very similar to today with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s with light easterly flow in place. Another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon as peak heating is achieved. However with weak instability (CAPE < 1000 J/kg) and weak shear (< 20 kts), severe weather is not expected. A few stronger thunderstorm could produce some small hail and an occasionally strong wind gust up to 45 mph. Just like today, expect coverage to decrease as you get closer to sunset. Nonetheless expect accumulation between a few hundredths to a tenth across the area. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Monday-Wednesday: As we head into the new week, an interesting pattern sets up with many synoptic scale features in play. First, the broad upper-level ridging is expected to become almost stationary over us due to the two separate low pressure systems spinning off both coasts. This should keep any significant precipitation chances at bay for the next several days. Second, a backdoor cold front will swing through the northern plains on Monday bringing slightly cooler air into the region over the next two days. Third, as the low pressure system on the east coast begins to strengthen; a piece of it breaks off and becomes a closed low situated over Kansas and Oklahoma. While this feature is quite subtle, this will eventually set up a weak "Rex Block" between the northern and central plains. With this in place, the warm and mostly dry pattern is all but confirmed. Otherwise, southerly to southeasterly flow will continue with daily isolated to scattered precipitation chances in the afternoons and evenings. Looking into temperatures, Monday will be the warmest day with highs expected to be in mid to upper 80s and low 90s. As we head into Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will take slight dip as due to the passage of the previously mentioned cold front. As a result, highs are only expected to be in the low to upper 80s with the warmest conditions occurring west of I-29. Thursday-Saturday: Heading into the latter part of the week, the aforementioned upper-level ridging starts to slightly break down with more defined waves moving through the Four Corner States and Ohio River Valley. This will allow for a few quick shortwave to swing into the northern plains from the northeast starting as early as Friday. While this could help to increase the overall coverage of shower activity, weak instability (CAPE < 1000 J/kg) and weak shear (< 20 kts) will keep any significant development at bay. At best, most areas could see a few hundredths of QPF with some areas getting closer to a tenth. Otherwise, southerly to southeasterly flow will continue with daily highs sitting in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s across the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, a stratocumulus field is starting to develop across the area as diurnal heating continues. As head into the afternoon, expect the "cu field" to become more widespread as our daily dose of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms begins to develop. While the developing storms shouldn't pose any significant aviation threat, some stronger storms could produce gusts in the 30-40 kt range. Otherwise, southeasterly flow will become marginally breezy throughout the afternoon before decoupling overnight and becoming more easterly. Light easterly flow will then continue throughout the day tomorrow to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...Gumbs LONG TERM...Gumbs AVIATION...Gumbs
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-040845- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook- Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton- Union- 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not anticipated. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms continue through the weekend and into early next week. Severe weather is not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 122 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:29 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed up to 10 large trees in a grove. A gazebo was blown at least 200 feet through a garage door and the winds displaced deck furniture up to 500 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1111358.