Accelerated snowmelt from a near-record snowpack due to above normal temperatures and precipitation produced high and fast flow on drainages in several west-central counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Accelerated snowmelt from a near-record snowpack due to above normal temperatures and precipitation produced high and fast flow on drainages in several west-central counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 3, 11:00 AM MST, 0 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1200 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A remnant low circulation that has been bringing unsettled weather to the CWA the last several days is spinning over northwest Colorado, right along the Wyoming border to the southeast of Rock Springs. This is evident on satellite imagery. There is another low circulation that has been over Colorado the last couple days but seems to be getting absorbed in the flow, although there are hints of it south of Colorado Springs at this time on satellite. The northern low is allowing showers to continue across northeast utah into northwest Colorado, basically from the eastern Uintas to the Flattops with showers moving to the southeast. Looks like a bit of a remnant MCV moving with that line of showers. Anticipate this band of showers to progress in central portions of the CWA. Plenty of clouds and showers look to be inundating the Front Range as moisture advects up from the south in between the low circulations over Colorado and the persistent high pressure circulation over the northern High Plains and Upper Midwest states. A shortwave ridge is trying to squeeze in over our CWA today, between another shortwave trough moving over the northern Great Basin and the negatively tilted trough over eastern Colorado. The flow looks to switch to westerly across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado where some drier air is trying to sneak in with this narrow shortwave ridge. Hi res CAMs and most models seem to hint at a downturn in convective activity today and Sunday as a result. However, enough remnant moisture remains and it hasn't really vacated the region. Plus, with the added forcing with the lingering troughiness and approaching shortwave trough over northern Utah, thinking convection is a bit underdone by the models. Storms look to develop over all high terrain this afternoon, with the western Colorado mountains and eastern Uintas favored. Some storms may drift into surrounding valleys late in the day but coverage in valleys at least looks less than previous days. Potential exists for some heavy rainers with less of a concern for gusty outflow winds as the profile has become more saturated. On Sunday, a couple new players enter the arena, which could make things interesting for the coming week. First, a large cutoff low approaches the SoCal coast which ends up forming an Omega block into the coming week with a trough over the west and east and the high pressure ridge across the Central CONUS. Now, if that's not enough, models are starting to indicate a low forming over Texas- Oklahoma underneath the high pressure still remaining over the Dakotas and Minnesota. This creates a Rex block over the central portion of the CONUS, which looks to remain in place through at least Wednesday of the coming week. Our CWA will become pinched between these features, allowing moisture to continue to stream or remain in place over the Divide and Front Range of Colorado. So, while drier air will intrude from the west on Sunday, enough moisture remains for some storms to form over the Divide mountains Sunday afternoon, but much less coverage than previous days. While we will see below normal temperatures today, they should return to near normal by Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 322 AM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 The CWA will be sandwiched between an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure centered over southern Canada and stagnant lows located over the northeast U.S. and just off the California coast. The location of these features forces a very thin and weak ridge to form over the CWA and despite said feature, models still indicate some isolated to scattered showers, maybe a quick storm, mainly over the San Juans and along the Divide, though a chance does exist for other higher terrain portions of the CWA on Monday. The low off the SoCal coast comes ashore during the day Monday and stays in the same general area through Wednesday. Nor does the low really strengthen or weaken which is corroborated by cluster guidance essentially showing the same thing. Of note during that period, both the deterministic EC and GFS show an uptick in precip Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to that low tapping into some subtropical moisture. Some upper level divergence also appears overhead which will aid in better lift causing the more widespread precip. PWATs start to lower Thursday which will cause a downturn in convection for about the southern half of the CWA with some showers and storms possible up north. Model discrepancies then pop up Friday heading into the weekend so we'll have to wait and see how things shake out. Temperatures will vary from near normal to below through the period depending on cloud cover and precip. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Persistent cloudiness will continue along the continental divide today with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing on the high terrain of western Colorado. Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and visibility reductions from these showers will pose aviation challenges at mountain terminals. Valleys will likely see a few short lived storms drift off of the terrain. Gusty outflows will be the concern with any of these valley showers. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Snowmelt rates are progged to slow down this weekend due to cooler temperatures and even snow in the forecast above 10,500 - 11,000 feet. Most main stems and tributaries follow in line, with a downward tick in water levels and forecast flows for the next few days. However, lower basins with snow below 11,000 feet could continue to see rising river and stream flows due to the widespread showers generating rain on snow. The Grand Mesa in particular, continues to rapidly melt its snowpack, captured by the filled lakes and reservoirs atop the Mesa and strong flows draining below. Thus, some drainages here (i.e. Surface Creek and Plateau Creek) are still at risk of exceeding bankfull conditions, despite the cooler weather. Unsettled weather continues to flood our PoP grids into next week, yet temperatures return to normal by Monday. Anticipate spring runoff to ramp back up again along snow fed streams/creeks, starting with the fresh few inches of snow received over the last several days in this moist, unsettled and cooler pattern. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...LTB HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 350 AM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-041000- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 350 AM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers will persist this morning across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over most high terrain with some storms drifting into adjacent valleys late in the day. Expect a bit of a downturn in storm coverage compared to previous days as slightly drier air tries to work in from the west. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with storms. Rivers and creeks will continue to run high due to snowmelt for much of the area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Unsettled weather with daily thunderstorm activity looks to remain in the picture at least into the middle of next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A family rafting on the Colorado River became separated when their boat capsized due the fast and high flows as a result of recent snowmelt. First responders were able to locate all of the victims, but one minor was unresponsive to CPR.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flood, Eagle | 2023-06-03 | 8 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1095326.