Drought began to show itself in mid July in North Central Minnesota. From there, it spread into Lakes country by the end of the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Drought began to show itself in mid July in North Central Minnesota. From there, it spread into Lakes country by the end of the month. Highest classification was D2.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 9:50 PM CST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1050 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Smoke remains relatively widespread across the area this evening, with isolated light showers near Lake of the Woods. Winds are expected to diminish through the remainder of the evening, then shift to the south heading into Tuesday morning. Overall, the forecast remains on track this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Key Message -There is a threat for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and early evening, although the exact details are still uncertain Fairly thick cumulus still exists over most of the FA, but is thickest to the east of the Red River Valley. Bemidji reported a stray shower, but there haven't been too many showers showing up on radar or surface observations yet. Wind speeds were a little higher east of the Valley and lower from Devils Lake to Valley City. Moving into tonight, the cumulus will fade away and wind speeds look to become light. It will be cooler around the Lake of the Woods region, with exact cloud amounts being more uncertain for other areas. The cloud uncertainty tonight revolves around the fact that some CAMs develop showers and storms over Saskatchewan and northwest North Dakota tonight, then show them moving as far east as eastern North Dakota late (as they weaken). This would spread more cloud cover across the state of North Dakota late tonight and possibly Tuesday morning. For Tuesday into Tuesday night, SPC has placed central North Dakota eastward to the western edge of the Valley in a marginal risk for severe weather. As mentioned before, the details surrounding this are still uncertain. Some of the general components are an approaching 500mb low, with a short wave out ahead of it. The shear actually looks pretty good this time around, with the potential for over 40 knots (better to the south than the north). The HREF shows CAPE values pushing up into central North Dakota by early afternoon, getting into our western FA by late afternoon, then the values quickly weaken during the early evening. The GFS ensemble shows about a 40 percent chance of reaching 2000 J/kg of CAPE from Carrington to Jamestown at 00z Wednesday. Do not see much of a low level jet, which could help to sustain any stronger activity into the overnight period. There are a couple of scenarios. First, morning cloud cover could help to hold down the temperature rise on Tuesday. The HRRR has been showing the overnight convection weakening over eastern North Dakota Tuesday morning, but it also develops additional showers and storms over the central Dakotas during the mid to late morning hours. Don't think that would limit the later afternoon convection all that much though, but the first scenario would be longer lasting clouds and the possibility for longer lasting convection Tuesday morning. Another scenario would be that the overnight convection dies out Tuesday morning with heating developing through the day. Storms break out again in the 3 to 5 pm time frame from Devils Lake to Jamestown, moving into eastern North Dakota during the early evening, producing some severe storms. The HREF develops some UH tracks greater than 75 in that Devils Lake to Jamestown corridor around 23z (6 pm), moving them toward the western Valley by 03z (10 pm). We have been messaging the 3 pm to 9 pm time frame for severe storms, and this is still within that ballpark. Lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday night, as the daytime convection continues to drift to the east. It is possible some storms may yet be severe in the early evening, but any of those should weaken in the later evening and overnight. Weakening means the severe threat should end, but the showers and storms should track through the entire area, giving most of the FA about a 30-40 percent chance of seeing 0.25 inch amounts. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Key Messages -A 500mb low traverses the FA Wednesday/Wednesday night, bringing more precipitation chances -Northwest flow sets up Thursday through Sunday, with more subtle waves possible (chances for precipitation) at times The 500mb low will track across the FA Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is a cold pool aloft, so expect some morning sun leading to thicker afternoon clouds and the chance for showers and storms. Severe weather does not look likely, but these lows can produce funnels under the right circumstances. Later shifts can take a closer look at that. For Thursday through Sunday, as the 500mb low pushes off to the east and ridging builds over the Rockies, flow over the FA turns to the northwest. By Monday, the western ridge flattens, with a more zonal pattern ensuing. The main highlights for this period will be that any waves during this period will be more subtle, but they could produce precipitation. Confidence is just too low to narrow that down this far out. The other thing is that temperatures look to return to near or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 MVFR conditions persist at KGFK and KDVL tonight due to low level smoke. Other sites are currently VFR, but could experience brief reductions into the MVFR category due to smoke, mainly this evening and overnight. Look for winds to become southerly Tuesday, with smoke expected to diminish slightly through the late morning and into the afternoon. Look for a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible for portions of the region, primarily from the Red River Valley and points west. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...Lynch SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon AVIATION...Lynch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-027-030-039-053- 182330- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina- Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Traill-Cass-Richland- 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Areas of wildfire smoke may result in unhealthy air quality for sensitive groups through Tuesday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Lightning from scattered thunderstorms is anticipated Tuesday evening into the overnight. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054-182330- Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Steele-Barnes- Ransom-Sargent-Western Walsh- 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Areas of wildfire smoke may result in unhealthy air quality for sensitive groups through Tuesday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated severe storms are possible from 3 pm to 9 pm Tuesday, with 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph being the main hazards. An isolated tornado is possible, as is localized flooding with any strong to severe storm. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Drought Monitor went to D2 in Northern Beltrami county from July 18th through the end of the month.
Drought Monitor went to D2 in Southern Beltrami county from July 18th through the end of the month.
Drought Monitor went to D2 in Hubbard county from July 25th through the end of the month.
Drought Monitor went to D2 in Wadena county from July 25th through the end of the month.
Drought Monitor went to D2 in Eastern Otter Tail county from July 25th through the end of the month.
Drought Monitor went to D2 in Grant county from July 25th through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1118986, 1118987, 1118988, 1118989, 1118990, 1118991.