Drought remains in 5 counties in NW MN, with one being majority removed from D2 in the last outlook of December.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Drought remains in 5 counties in NW MN, with one being majority removed from D2 in the last outlook of December.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 4, 10:22 PM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1022 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 946 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 The SPS was allowed to drop off as visibilities have improved. Additional fog may develop where skies are clear west of the valley. This will be the primary extent of impacts for the overnight hours. UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 An SPS was issued for areas of dense fog across the northern Red River Valley. There is high confidence the fog will stick around overnight, but the main question is how severe visibility reductions will be. If 1/4SM reports expand, the probability of a dense fog advisory will increase. For now, an SPS was put in place through 10 PM to cover where fog will most likely be 1/4SM in some locations. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 254 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 Key Messages -Fog looks to be an issue again tonight The fog really never went away across the northern Red River Valley this afternoon. Grafton seems to be the worst right now (~2 miles) and it may be backing into Grand Forks again (the GF airport is down to 2 miles). Current satellite imagery shows the mid level clouds clearing slowly from north to south, making the low clouds from Grand Forks to Pembina visible again. Guidance seems to be zeroing in on this area with fog again early tonight (it is actually there already). This clear/cloudy boundary was the initiator last night, and it may be the same way again tonight. So have fog lingering late this afternoon into the evening in the northern Valley, then have it spreading slowly southward overnight. Not really seeing the same signal for areas east of west of the Valley. After morning fog Tuesday, looking like there may be more breaks of sun throughout the day. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 254 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 Key Messages: -Mid-week warmth -There is a system possible Thursday night to Friday night Ensembles remain firm with the upper ridge mid week with well above average temps across the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. EFI backs this as it shows us nearing the climatological max Wednesday into Thursday for 500mb temps and upper 90th percentile at the surface. The source of this unseasonably warm air will be a downsloping airmass from the Rockies slowly moving east under the ridge. NBM guidance shows high confidence in 850mb temps nearing 10C by Wednesday afternoon with a 25th to 75th percentile spread of 7-11C, thus any slight overachieving will likely result in sfc temps near 50F. Exactly how warm may depend on the strength and direction of the surface winds. This not only would approach daily records but would also be a rarity for the month of December in general across eastern North Dakota. Ridging (Wed/Thu) will be short lived however as a westerly jet streak surges into the Pacific NW late week degrading the ridge while pushing it east. This will transition us to zonal flow then quickly into troughing (Thu night through Fri night). Increased precipitation chances are likely across southern Canada and along the Canadian border through ND/MN Thu night to Fri night. The bigger question may be how much further south this precipitation gets, with the ECMWF ensemble covering the entire FA and the GFS ensemble keeping it north of highway 2 (the NBM is between the two). The ECMWF solution results in more precipitation for the FA (also stronger winds), while the GFS solution is much less with both. Precipitation type is also an issue, as this would likely mostly fall as rain, though some snow could be possible as colder air wraps in. Looking toward the weekend and beyond, the WPC cluster analysis is all over the place. So overall confidence for the weekend into early next week is low. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1020 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 Aviation challenges will continue through 12z. Low level clouds will continue to present IFR to LIFR cigs. Additionally, fog may intensify overnight tonight at DVL and lower the flight category to IFR as well. It's really difficult to determine how significant aviation impacts will be at all TAF sites tonight, but for now expect at least MVFR to IFR flight categories for all TAF sites (DVL is the only site with a chance to really maintain VFR conditions overnight tonight). After 12z, flight conditions will improve to VFR with generally light winds below 10 knots. Aviation impacts will be minimal. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...Perroux SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon/TT AVIATION...Perroux
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051730- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 631 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 MNZ001-002-004-005-007-008-013>015-NDZ008-016-027-030-050300- West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall- Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks- Traill- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Hadler, Faith, Flaming, Syre, Twin Valley, Halstad, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Casperson, Fox, Hayes Lake State Park, Malung, Pencer, Roseau, Salol, Radium, Warren, Englund, Florian, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Espelie, Gatzke, Grygla, Rosewood, Dakota Junction, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Akra, Backoo, Cavalier, Leroy, Walhalla, Bowesmont, Drayton, Grafton, Nash, Oakwood, Park River, Grand Forks, Mayville, Hillsboro, Kelso, Hatton, Portland, and Roseville 631 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023 ...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY... Areas of fog occasionally reducing visibility to around one- quarter mile have developed across the northern Red River Valley. Travelers are encouraged to be prepared for the possibility of rapidly deteriorating visibility, and to use extra caution at intersections, railroad crossings, and school bus stops.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Hubbard county remains majority in D2 drought as of the last outlook December 26th.
Kittson county remains majority in D2 drought as of the last outlook December 26th.
Beltrami county remains majority in D2 drought as of the last outlook December 26th.
Portions in south central and south western Roseau county remain in D2 drought as of the last outlook December 26th.
Beltrami county remain in D2 drought as of the last outlook December 26th.
Wadena county remained in D2 drought through December 26th, when it was removed from D2 except a little sliver in eastern Wadena.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1148890, 1148891, 1148892, 1148893, 1148894, 1148895.