Drought continued from July in NW MN. It worsened to D3 by mid August, with the D3 area covering 2 counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Drought continued from July in NW MN. It worsened to D3 by mid August, with the D3 area covering 2 counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 10:16 PM CST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1116 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577 expired at 11 pm, but both storms that fired in the watch area remained west of the FA anyway. The storms have been moving slowly to the south. CAMs had been showing storms in southern Canada moving into northwest Minnesota late tonight into Tuesday morning, but they have been backing off toward the noon hour now. Confidence on any particular CAM is pretty low, with the best potential for storms likely holding off until mid to late afternoon as the next cold front arrives. UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 So far the strongest storm was located northwest of Bottineau in north central North Dakota. It has been moving more south than southeast, toward the greater instability axis. The main effect in this FA is higher cloud amounts from the cirrus blowoff of this storm. Will keep an eye out for any storms that may sneak into the far western FA, although that is not looking too likely at this point. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within western and central North Dakota and/or southern SK/MB this afternoon into tonight, of which may be severe. This activity has a medium chance of moving into eastern North Dakota late this afternoon through tonight, bringing the chance for severe weather with it. Main hazards this afternoon into tonight would be gusty winds to 60 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected throughout the day into evening Tuesday across the region, some of which may be severe. Main hazards for Tuesday would be hail up to the size of golf balls as well as wind gusts to 70 mph. Discussion: Upper ridge over the central CONUS will tilt its axis into the Northern Plains today and tomorrow. One or more shortwave troughs will round the crest of the ridge through the region, although relatively unorganized and progress. At the surface, a reservoir of moderate to strongly unstable air mass currently resides within western North Dakota, with sharp gradient extending from near the Turtle Mtns to the James River Valley. As of 3:30 PM, agitating Cu is being observed near the SK/MB/ND border. Should this activity initiate and become robust, thunderstorms would have a medium to high chance of becoming severe given the instability and effective shear in the 40-50 kt range, mostly found aloft and in a unidirectional fashion. This opens up the possibility of a couple of semi-discrete supercells moving either southeast (right moving) or due east (left moving) into the western Devils Lake basin, capable of large hail to ping pongs (perhaps larger if larger forcing for ascent becomes present) and gusty winds to 60 mph. There is around a 40% chance of this scenario to occur before 6 PM. Otherwise for today and tonight, the window of opportunity for thunderstorms to move into eastern North Dakota remains open between 7 pm - 7 am. Available guidance is in disagreement in any favored scenario regarding convection, and illustrates nicely the nebulous forcing regime that continues to lower confidence on finer details with thunderstorm/severe potential tonight. Nevertheless, thunderstorms tonight would be capable of similar hazards of hail to ping pong balls and 60 mph wind gusts. Getting into Tuesday, the unstable air mass is progged to expand further into our area opening the possibility of robust, organized convection capable of hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 70 mph throughout our area. This morning guidance offered a bit more in terms of thunderstorm coverage potential both within the expanding warm sector over much of our area as well as ahead of a weak cold front pushing out of SK/MB. Thus, an upgrade to a level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) in the SPC outlook was coordinated and issued. The hail potential would likely be more attached to semi-discrete supercells and/or multi-cells away from the cold front throughout the day, whereas more of the wind potential would come with activity near the cold front later in the afternoon and evening. Other aspects of note include hot and humid conditions tomorrow, as well as smoke aloft and near the surface within portions of northwest Minnesota through tonight. At this time, widespread hazards heat is unlikely (less than 10%). .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Shortwave troughing on Tuesday into Wednesday will help shunt upper ridging over the area, with a surface front moving through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Depending on where the front resides, there is a possibility of thunderstorms Wednesday. At this time better chances for severe reside south and east of our area, but there is lowered confidence in exactly where the front will reside. So the chance for stronger storms remains non- zero for our southern and eastern counties, just not favored at this time. Later into the week, the upper pattern flattens a bit, with mid latitude cyclone possible around Saturday and Sunday into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This would increase chances for precip into our area, although whether instability makes its way into our area remains low in confidence. Most guidance keeps this south of the area, however. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 VFR conditions are expected for the TAFs, with potential convection still the main impact. Timing on when that may be is still pretty tough, as some CAMs had been showing storms from southern Canada moving into northwest Minnesota late tonight into Tuesday morning. Now they are showing that potential more by late morning into early afternoon. However, since confidence in that scenario is low, went more with the idea of typical late afternoon or early evening convection (Tuesday). Only went with VCTS for now, if confidence grows, later shifts can adjust as need be. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...Godon SHORT TERM...CJ LONG TERM...CJ AVIATION...Godon
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1029 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-020330- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 1029 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the region in the late afternoon into the evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday. The main hazards for Tuesday will be 70 mph wind gusts and hail sized up to 1.75 inches. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D2 drought continued in Eastern Otter Tail county on August 1st. It continued through the end of the month.
D2 drought continued in Hubbard county from July. It continued through the end of the month, and worsened to D3 on August 29th.
D2 drought continued in Wadena county from July. It continued through the end of the month, and worsened to D3 on August 29th.
D2 drought continued in Northern Beltrami county from July. It continued through the end of the month.
D2 drought continued in Southern Beltrami county from July. It continued through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1119007, 1119011, 1119012, 1119013, 1119014.