A deepening low pressure system moving from the Central Plains across the Thumb of Lower Mi dumped moderate to heavy snow across portions of south central and eastern Upper Mi on the 25th.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A deepening low pressure system moving from the Central Plains across the Thumb of Lower Mi dumped moderate to heavy snow across portions of south central and eastern Upper Mi on the 25th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 25, 6:33 AM EST, 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 733 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today) Issued at 323 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2023 Latest water vapor imagery shows a well-defined negative-tilt shortwave over northern MO which is fcst to lift ne through Lower Mi later this morning along with its associated deepening sfc low which is likely to fall blo 990 mb as it passes over the Thumb of Lower Mi early this afternoon. Most model guidance continues to indicate that the best forcing and deeper moisture for pcpn will stay east and south of the fcst area today, but the RAP does show developing mid- level fgen into the southeast and eastern portions of the fcst area later this morning into afternoon. The biggest obstacle for snow chances will be overcoming the abundant dry air in mid-levels as depicted by the fcst soundings. Using consensus model qpf is looks like most locations south central and east will see an inch or less of snowfall today, with the exception of Luce County which could maybe see 2-3 inches over the eastern half of the county where fgen forcing from the system persists the longest. The west half will stay mostly dry away from the deeper moisture and better forcing from the system. Given the expectation of cloud cover over much of the area today along with a developing onshore northerly flow went on the lower end of temp guidance leaning more toward the ConsAll which has max temps in the lower to mid 30s east and north central with maybe some upper 30s readings possible south central. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 418 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2023 By tonight, the low pressure that passed through the Lower Peninsula will have made it to the Georgian Bay. Some wraparound moisture will still support snowfall in Luce County, but with synoptic lift continuing to depart, additional snow accumulations in the east top out at only an additional half inch more after 00Z. Flow then turns northwesterly and temperatures aloft slowly cool to near the -10s C. Despite the mostly uninspiring temperature profile, the NAM is showing isolated areas of 50 J/kg of surface CAPE and ample remnant surface layer moisture, so lake effect cloud cover with a few light snow showers are expected Sunday. No meaningful accumulation is expected, and CAMs are even a bit inconsistent on the placement of northwesterly bands, but whatever bands form will wrap up by Sunday night as ridging (and associated subsidence/dry air) builds in. The next chance of precipitation comes late Monday into Tuesday as a weak shortwave and associated cold front pass through the UP vicinity. Despite such weak synoptic forcing, ample midlevel moisture and a limited lake enhancement signal will lead to some PoPs along the terrain. Temperatures aloft at around -10 C and sufficient surface moisture will support some lake enhancement. It's a very marginal setup and any precipitation will only occur where a combination of forcing mechanisms (synoptic, lake enhancement, and orographic) combine, though not for any noteworthy accumulation. Once the shortwave passes Tuesday, a period of 850mb cold advection will drop temperatures aloft into the negative teens, supporting a period of westerly to northwesterly lake effect snow bands Wednesday. While these will be the best lake effect bands of the forecast period, they will be fairly short-lived as ridging quickly builds in, anti-cyclonic flow backs southwesterly by Wednesday evening, and 850mb warm advection ruins the lake effect thermal profile. With marginal setup after marginal setup through the early week, a 500mb trough passing through the Rockies Thursday will support a more robust Colorado Low ejecting northeast Friday. Model spread is fairly uniform with little clustering evident on the surface pressure centers of the 00Z GEFS, but the signal is strong for an at least 990s mb low passing through the Upper Great Lakes in the late week period. The NBM shows pretty even probabilities of it being rain or snow and isn't ruling out mixed precipitation either, so this will be the "let's keep an eye on this" feature of this forecast package. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 728 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2023 Expect VFR conditions until late tonight (09-12Z) when colder air moves across Lake Superior in a n-nw flow and MVFR lake clouds develop into the terminals. A tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the low pressure system moving through Lower Michigan will result in northerly winds gusting near 25 knots at SAW. .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 418 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2023 Northeasterly wind gusts increase to 20 knots late this morning, veering northwesterly to 25 knots by this afternoon over the east half as a low pressure passes through Lake Huron. With the low departing overnight, the pressure gradient relaxes and the winds drop below 20 knots for most of the remainder of March. Around the end of next week, another low pressure passing southwest to northeast may bring an increase of wind gusts, though uncertainty is high in the details. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...Voss MARINE...GS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 408 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-260815- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 408 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 /308 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper Michigan and western Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is the potential of a few inches of wet snow this afternoon and evening to the south and east of Newberry. Snow amounts will depend on the track of the low pressure system moving through Lower Michigan. There will also be a sharp snowfall gradient between the snow falling in far eastern Upper Michigan and no snowfall occurring in central Upper Michigan. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-260815- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 408 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 /308 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-260815- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 408 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. Voss
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 winter weather, 2 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Observer wet snowfall reports over 12 hours included 3.5 inches at Bark River and 4.4 inches at Garden Corners.
Observer and social media wet snowfall reports over ten hours included 3 inches at Daggett and 4 to 5 inches in the Menominee area. Wet, slushy and snow-covered roads were reported to be extremely slippery.
Heavy snowfall reports from southern Schoolcraft County included 7.5 inches at Parent Bay, 5 to 7 inches in the Manistique area and 4 inches near Cooks. Wet snowfall rates exceeding an inch per hour were reported during the event.
An estimated three to five inches of wet snow fell over northern Schoolcraft County over a ten-hour period.
Social media reports of heavy snow within an approximate ten-hour period included 12-13 inches in the Newberry area and 8-9 inches eight miles north of McMillan.
An estimated three to five inches of wet snow fell over the Grand Marais area in approximately eight hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1089817, 1089820, 1089815, 1089822, 1089787, 1089831.