Wind damage resulted from an isolated severe storm in Muskegon county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRR wrote it up.
Wind damage resulted from an isolated severe storm in Muskegon county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 9:45 PM EST, 2 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1045 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approaching from WI is sending a band of scattered to numerous showers and tstms across Lk MI. Upstream reports from GRB/MKX offices have been mostly limited to small hail although a few instances of localized wind damage have occurred. Air mass in MI is rather dry/stable at this time and would expect to see a diminishing trend as this convection arrives. That said, a narrow ridge/ribbon of PWATs near 1.5 and MUCapes near 1000 J/KG is shown by the RAP to poke in ahead of the front overnight. Latest CAMS are in good agreement showing a fairly solid line of showers/isolated tstms extending from HTL to MKG at 05Z (1 AM), weakening by the time it reaches a LAN to AZO line around 08Z (4 AM). Severe weather is not expected overnight with these storms although gusty winds up to 40 mph and small hail are possible over Lk MI and along the shoreline north of Holland over the next few hours before the line begins to dissipate. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 - Smoke decreasing early tonight then returning overnight - The Canadian National Wildfire Smoke Model indicates that much of southwest Lower Michigan will see decreased smoke concentrations this afternoon into early evening, especially near and north of I-96. The respite will be brief because another surge of smoke is expected, starting around midnight ahead of a cold front dropping south through the area. - Showers overnight, maybe a Lake Michigan storm - Model guidance indicates lingering surface based conditional instability over Lake Michigan tonight that will be marginally ample to support thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front. Would not rule out a special marine warning or two, especially given the strong expected winds in the cloud bearing layer. Any thunderstorms that develop would most likely weaken upon moving onshore. We do have thunderstorms in the forecast over land as well, but these will be low probability and could possibly be removed based on trends early tonight. Precipitation amounts will be light, most likely remaining well below a tenth of an inch. It's possible some areas around US-127 will receive no rain at all. - Smoke early Monday, likely exiting southeast during the day - Although the current air quality alert is for the whole day Monday, model guidance does suggest conditions could improve significantly by afternoon. For the latest information please refer to the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy page on the internet at... http://www.michigan.gov/EGLE. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 - Next Chance for Precipitation Midweek Another solid looking upper level jet and mid level low is forecast to move into the upper Great Lakes by midweek. At the low levels, a cold front will likely sweep through Michigan Thursday. Frontal timing will be key to our risk for thunderstorms. Ahead of the front, models are showing deep layer shear of 40-50 kts with a mid level jet around 50 kts. PWATs look to be around 1.25" with dew points likely in the mid to perhaps upper 60s. While not overly impressive, this moisture may be enough to help fire convection provided surface based instability develops given we will have synoptic forcing in place. If the front moves through early Thursday, then our risk for thunderstorms would be minimal. Should the front hold off until late Thursday, thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail could conceivably occur, especially away from the lakeshore region. - A Few Showers Possible Friday into Saturday As the upper wave slowly exits the region Friday, there may be enough low level moisture remaining in the midst of cold air advection to help generate a few showers or a thunderstorm over the region, mainly Friday but the ECMWF does favor a chance lingering into early Saturday as well. Since there is a divergence in model guidance regarding the speed at which the upper wave exits, uncertainty exists in when we begin drying out. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 754 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Band of scattered showers and tstms moving east from WI should reach MKG around 03Z then weaken/diminish while continuing east through the area overnight. Will only carry a thunder risk at MKG, and this may be accompanied by a brief period of gustier winds and a wind shift. It's possible that GRR will see a gusty thundershower as well around Midnight, but then mainly just a brief shower risk will exist the terminals south and east of GRR as the convection continues to weaken. Otherwise VFR weather is expected to prevail tonight and Monday, but can't rule out a period of MVFR vsbys in smoke late tonight into early Monday. West winds will pick up by 15Z Monday, gusting up to 25 kts at times before relaxing later in the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory thresholds. However, locally higher winds associated with showers and even possible thunderstorms can be expected tonight (mainly before midnight) prior to the passage of a cold front. Winds behind this front are not expected to be strong enough to build waves to small craft advisory levels, however. Visibility restrictions in smoke and haze will persist well into Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && UPDATE...Meade SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...Hoving AVIATION...Meade MARINE...TJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 343 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-171945- Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- 343 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A few showers and thunderstorms with strong wind gusts are possible mainly along the immediate lakeshore region north of Holland tonight between 8pm and 12am. Wind gusts over 40 mph are possible in the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. LMZ844>849-171945- St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI- Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI- Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI- 343 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Thunderstorms with strong gusty winds from the northwest may develop over the lake especially between 8pm and midnight. The main threat will be north of Holland and especially toward Pentwater and Ludington. Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 40 kts are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1223 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
MIZ043-044-050-170600-
Oceana MI-Muskegon MI-Newaygo MI-
1223 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Newaygo, Muskegon and
southern Oceana Counties through 200 AM EDT...
At 1223 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Hesperia to 6 miles southwest
of Whitehall to 31 miles west of Montague. Movement was east at 35
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Muskegon... Newaygo... White Cloud...
Muskegon Heights... Fremont... Roosevelt Park...
North Muskegon... Whitehall... Montague...
Lakewood Club... Ravenna... Fruitport...
Hesperia... Grant... Norton Shores...
Dalton... Croton... Holton...
Sullivan... Bridgeton...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4365 8593 4365 8557 4330 8556 4329 8579
4320 8579 4320 8591 4312 8591 4312 8627
4332 8640 4343 8645 4350 8647 4356 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 266DEG 32KT 4357 8591 4333 8644 4327 8696
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NJJPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1254 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 AM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ENE Norton Shores 43.17N 86.23W
07/17/2023 M46 MPH Muskegon MI ASOS
ASOS station KMKG Muskegon County Airport.
&&
NJJThe Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 50 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:56 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An emergency manager reported that an isolated severe storm blew down several old barns.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1111933.