An upper disturbance moving through a moist and unstable air mass produced several severe thunderstorms over Menominee County during the afternoon of the 2nd.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
An upper disturbance moving through a moist and unstable air mass produced several severe thunderstorms over Menominee County during the afternoon of the 2nd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 2, 12:07 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 207 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 206 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2023 This morning, a band of convection swept through the Upper Peninsula, with a narrow band of MRMS-derived 1+ inch rainfall backed up by a few ground observations. While traditional wisdom would indicate that rainfall early in the day would impede future precipitation chances, the sun is shining in the wake of the precipitation with little to no smoke blockage. This will allow for destabilization of the atmosphere this afternoon in a northwesterly flow pattern, which is a particularly sensitive regime for severe weather climatology for Upper Michigan. 12Z HREF mean SBCAPE shows broad areas of 1,250-2,000 J/kg expected, with ensemble max SBCAPE showing the potential for that value to grow to upwards of 3,500 by 00Z. Paintball plots highlight the central to eastern UP as having the highest probabilities of thunderstorm development with more isolated chances in the western third. SPC Mesoanalysis is showing broadly around 35 kt of bulk effective shear across the UP except over the Keweenaw. With weak synoptic-level forcing, the expected storm mode favors isolated strong to severe cells with a supercell not out of the question, though northwesterly surface flow is typically not conducive for tornado development. Currently, thunderstorms have been observed initiating in and around Dickinson County. MRMS MESH has so far shown hail sizes up to but not exceeding 3/4 inch. SPC Mesoanalysis shows the storms being in a region of 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 35 kt of effective bulk shear. Supercell Composite is between 2 and 4, showing the marginal supercell environment, but the SHIP is below 1, leading to decreased confidence in large hail potential. Despite this, frequent lightning has been observed with storms in south-central Upper Michigan. Other areas to watch will be between the storms in the south-central UP and Marquette as an agitated cu field is showing signs of beginnings of vertical development. Tonight, rain chances decrease sharply by 00Z as diurnal stabilization occurs. Winds are generally expected to decrease before becoming southerly to southwesterly ahead of a cold front dropping in tomorrow. The WRF FV3 does show a round of early morning convection, but that solution is low-confidence as virtually no other model output brings in rain prior to 11Z. If the winds decrease sufficiently, areas that get precipitation today could see some patchy fog overnight, but confidence is low in fog formation as winds may be too high. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 443 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2023 Chances are increasing for a wetter and cloudier than normal upcoming week of weather. Cloudiness and precipitation chances implies cool days and warm nights with temperatures averaging near- normal to perhaps slightly warmer than normal. While confidence remains low, there's still a chance for strong to severe t-storms on Thursday biased toward locations near Lake MI. More widespread rain chances return by Sunday evening and persist through Monday night. On the other hand, dry and generally pleasant weather is most likely for Friday, Saturday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Starting with tonight, a surface trough will be draped across the UP between a low pressure near James Bay and a thermal low over KS. Synoptic scale ascent increases within this trough axis after midnight as a shortwave trough ripples through upper level flow sending a diffuse frontal boundary across the area. HREF guidance shows a ~30% chance for morning convection associated with this wave and CAPE/shear values suggest a threat for strong thunderstorms. Given time of day, any activity that develops should be elevated suggesting hail will be the dominant hazard. Another shortwave trough approaches the area Thursday afternoon and lingering moisture may be sufficient for afternoon redevelopment, perhaps as early as 1-2 PM. Northwesterly surface winds imply that low level convergence will be maximized near Lake MI. A secondary Lake Superior lake breeze adds additional low level convergence extending southeast into Delta County. In the aforementioned locations, HREF means show MUCAPE values ~1500 J/kg with bulk shear values ~40 kts at 18z Thursday. These parameters are adequate for supercell structures, especially considering rightward looping hodographs through the lowest 6km southwest of the Lake Superior lake breeze. This favorable environment diminishes quickly during the afternoon hours and southerly to southeasterly storm motions at 25-30 kts suggests storms that develop will track outside our area fairly quickly. Except for the far southern tip of Menominee County our CWA should be in the clear by 00z Friday, suggesting slightly earlier than normal start/end times. Tranquil high pressure builds across the UP Thursday night with pressure rises on the order of 1-2 mb per 3 hours suggesting the boundary layer could stay fairly warm/well-mixed despite mostly clear skies. Friday looks like a very nice and sunny day with a light north breeze then the surface ridge settles overhead Friday night likely allowing for more efficient radiational cooling and patchy fog potential. By Saturday morning, attention shifts to ingredients coming together for an unseasonably deep low pressure tracking toward the Great Lakes region. 00z EPS members show three sub-1010 mb lows across northern Manitoba, South Dakota, and southeast KS that phase together by Monday morning. Ultimately, impacts associated with this storm system depend on low track, which 00z GEFS/GEPS/EPS output shows clustered over the relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan/Huron. Recent analyses indicate lake average temperatures around 15C for Lake Superior and 21-22C for Lakes Huron and Michigan indicating 6-7C of baroclinicity between the two basins. All that is to say current model guidance keeps our CWA on the cool/damp/cloudy side of the low pressure suggesting a beneficial soaking rain instead of thunderstorm potential. A sub-1000 mb surface low indicates potential for blustery conditions, but soundings suggest CAA won't be sufficient for lake-induced instability and EFI guidance highlights winds south of the low pressure center. While details are unclear, precip should end on Monday with drier conditions for next Tuesday/Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 141 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2023 Besides a brief low BKN deck over SAW at the time of TAF issuance, VFR conditions are most likely to persist at all TAF sites through the period. The cumulus field at SAW may consolidate into isolated to scattered TS, but confidence is low enough that only a few hours of VCTS are carried into this TAF period. Chances of precip drop off after 00Z tonight. Overnight, there is a slight chance of rain but it is a low enough chance to leave out of the TAFs for this issuance. Additionally, fog is not out of the question, but that will depend on afternoon rain moistening the ground near the TAF sites and winds being slightly lower than expected, therefore, left FG out of the TAF at this time. Expect winds to decrease somewhat overnight but pick up again tomorrow and become more northwesterly compared to the westerly to southwesterly winds expected today and tonight. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 443 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2023 South to southwesterly winds are currently gusting to around 20 kt at higher platforms. Thunderstorms are possible at times through tonight and patchy dense fog is possible in the wake of any thunderstorm activity. Winds back northerly behind a cold front Thursday then northeasterly for Friday when gusts approach 20 kt across the western lake. Winds should be fairly light Saturday into early Sunday as high pressure settles across the lake. There is potential for stronger winds late Sunday into Tuesday as an unseasonably strong low pressure system develops across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. However, considerable uncertainty in the track and timing of this potential storm remains at this time. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...EK AVIATION...GS MARINE...EK
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 546 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 MIZ001>007-009>013-084-085-031000- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Houghton- Northern Schoolcraft- 546 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 /446 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper Michigan and western Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Some could become strong to severe this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms will also be possible in Upper Michigan again Thursday with additional daily chances from Sunday through Tuesday. Some strong storms will be possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-031000- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 546 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 /446 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight. Some could become strong to severe. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms will also be possible Thursday across the eastern portions of the lake. Some storms could become strong at times on Thursday. Further out, there will be additional thunderstorm chances on Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-031000- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 546 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Some could become strong to severe at times. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms will also be possible again Thursday with additional daily chances from Sunday through Tuesday. Some strong storms will be possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. MIZ014-031000- Southern Schoolcraft- 546 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Some could become strong to severe this afternoon and evening. There is a Moderate Swim Risk for Southern Schoolcraft today for breaking waves and strong currents. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms will also be possible in Upper Michigan again Thursday with additional daily chances from Sunday through Tuesday. Some strong storms will be possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. TDUD
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1007 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0913 AM Rain 3 SSW Pelkie 46.78N 88.66W
08/02/2023 M1.03 inch Baraga MI Mesonet
RAWS Mesonet station PIEM4 3 SSW Pelkie.
0800 AM Rain 2 SE Herman 46.65N 88.33W
08/02/2023 M1.15 inch Baraga MI CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station HERM4 2.0 SE Herman.
&&
JSSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
MIZ011-012-021800-
Menominee MI-Dickinson MI-
1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND
NORTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...
At 1219 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Norway, or 15 miles east of Iron Mountain, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Norway, Powers, Hermansville, Wilson, Spalding, Nadeau, Waucedah,
Faithorn, Carney, Loretto, Vulcan, and Cunard.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4583 8791 4594 8770 4569 8735 4553 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 322DEG 15KT 4583 8775
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
TAPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
102 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
MIZ012-021845-
Menominee MI-
102 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MENOMINEE COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM CDT...
At 102 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hermansville, or 23 miles east of Iron Mountain, moving southeast at
15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Powers, Hermansville, Bagley, Wilson, Spalding, Nadeau, Gourley,
Carney, and Cunard.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4542 8752 4571 8776 4572 8773 4572 8770
4574 8770 4582 8755 4566 8732 4555 8732
4556 8726 4559 8723 4558 8721
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 322DEG 15KT 4571 8760
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
TAPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
212 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023
MIZ007-021830-
Luce MI-
212 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LUCE COUNTY THROUGH
230 PM EDT...
At 212 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Muskallonge State Park, or 15 miles north of
Newberry, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Betsy Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4648 8557 4666 8554 4668 8524 4649 8523
4642 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 275DEG 20KT 4657 8545
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
TAPThe Marquette radar (KMQT), 105 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:21 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Facebook report from Carney with pictures of two different trees down on private property and a garage door blown in.
Delayed Facebook report of large trees uprooted, a pole barn blown off its foundation and a garage door blown in. Time of the report was estimated from radar.
A called-in report of trees down on Highway M-35 just north of Cedar River.
A public report from mPING of 1-inch tree limbs broken in the Cedar River area. Time of the report was estimated from radar.
Facebook report from Cedar River of a tree down on a private driveway along with a power outage. Time of the report was estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1131245, 1131248, 1131244, 1131246, 1131247.