A thunderstorm moving through Outer Saginaw Bay produced a wind gust around 40 knots.
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The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
A thunderstorm moving through Outer Saginaw Bay produced a wind gust around 40 knots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 2:37 PM EST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 337 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 .DISCUSSION... Upper low over central Ontario pairs with upper ridge over the Deep South to produce benign zonal flow over SE Michigan today. Hazy sunshine is boosting temps into the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 60s resulting in a very muggy feel out there. With subtle shortwave ridging in place, little large scale forcing exists to overcome the weak cap in place to capitalize on the 1000- 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE over the region per latest SPC hourly mesoanalysis. The lake breeze convergence boundaries will however be a potential trigger for convection over the next several hours with most hi-res model guidance offering a widely scattered coverage of convection through the evening. Not seeing much vertical development yet in satellite imagery apart from the showers over northern Lower. Model soundings show a deep convective layer up to nearly 40kft but relatively dry air above the boundary layer should limit updraft strength via dry air entrainment. At the same time, weak bulk 0-6km wind shear of around 20 kt will limit cell organization to pulse mode. Severe weather is not likely within this setup, but an isolated stronger gust to 50+ mph will be possible in any stronger precip-loaded cores. Very low chance for hail up to an inch. Will maintain chance PoPs with best chances generally east of I-75/US-23. Any evening convection should begin to taper off after sunset, but then a convective shortwave will arrive from the west shortly before midnight which may maintain a chance of showers mainly across the south tonight. Could be a thunderstorm or two as well but better instability looks to hold south of the state line. Deeper moisture fills in across the state on Saturday ahead of an approaching trough over the Midwest, with surface dew points expected to climb back into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. This will begin a rather unsettled pattern taking us through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible Saturday and again Sunday. Forcing on Saturday will be driven by another convective wave moving in from the Midwest which still carries a decent amount of timing and spatial uncertainty at this time, but do expect the best coverage to coincide with the afternoon diurnal peak. Lapse rates will be near moist adiabatic resulting in MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and bulk wind shear will again be around 20-25 knots, so severe storms are not likely but can't rule out an isolated stronger gust and heavy downpours. Thinking with a decent amount of clouds around on Saturday, highs should reach the mid 80s for most locales. Mid-level troughing advances into the southern Great Lakes on Sunday, maintaining the humid air mass in place and likely resulting in an increasing coverage of showers/storms as the day goes on. The wave will dislodge some of the higher 850mb temps in place and, with lots of cloud cover around, limit highs to the mid to upper 70s. The wave also drives a surface low from Illinois northeastward across lower Michigan Sunday night, maintaining a numerous PoP mention through that period before rain chances trend downward as the system slowly departs Monday. With this low track, some deformation forcing may aid in mesoscale lift across the region which will bear monitoring for heavy rainfall potential as PWATs hover over 1.50 inches - roughly 90th percentile values for this time of year. Lingering moisture keeps at least a chance of showers around on Monday but shortwave ridging brings a better chance for drier weather for the Fourth of July. && .MARINE... Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have developed across northern Lake Huron, with a slight chance for additional showers and storms to develop across southern marine zones through the evening. Heavy rain, briefly enhanced waves, and gusty winds are possible in any thunderstorm activity. This activity should wane into the overnight hours. Reductions in visibility will be possible overnight due to a combination of the haze from the wildfire smoke and fog from the moist airmass. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms are again possible daytime tomorrow. An upper-level disturbance across the Ohio Valley then approaches the region early Sunday morning, bringing a more organized round of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will change to northeasterly on Sunday as this system departs the Ohio Valley, but given the weak flow marine headlines are not expected. As this upper-level disturbance departs the area on Monday, an upper-level ridge will build in. Winds are expected to gradually back from northeasterly to northwesterly and remain light early next week with low precipitation chances heading into the holiday. && .HYDROLOGY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly east of I-75 and US-23. Where storms occur, rainfall amounts up to a quarter inch will be possible. Higher rain chances develop Saturday into Sunday as a low pressure system works into the region from the Midwest. During this period, coverage of showers and storms will increase each afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not likely but heavy rainfall will be possible at times with atmospheric moisture content trending above normal. Rainfall totals in excess of 1 inch will be possible for any areas that see slow-moving or repeated storms this weekend. Ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of urban areas and typically prone areas will be possible where the heaviest rainfall rates and amounts occur. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 AVIATION... Hazy skies continue to plague the region with MVFR visibility restrictions. Diurnal cumulus field has developed and is hovering around the the VFR/MVFR borderline. Winds are generally out of the west and below 10 knots. There remains potential for isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms to develop this afternoon in the 23Z to 02Z time frame along the lake boundary that has developed and can be seen on satellite. Uncertainty in placement precludes mention at this time and may be added in the 21Z amendment or 00Z TAF issuance if confidence increases in activity impacting any terminal. The metro terminals are more likely affected during any afternoon development. A second round of possible shower activity will come tonight as the system currently over central/northern IL will roll eastward. This activity will again more likely affect the southern terminals. While cloud coverage increases tonight, expect that ceilings will remain predominately VFR. For DTW...Hazy conditions with MVFR visibility continues this afternoon until increased westerly into this evening will try and improve these conditions. There will be a chance for isolated showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon and another round of rainfall possible tonight. Ceilings will be predominately VFR with FEW/SCT clouds below 5,000 feet outside of any shower activity that could reduce ceilings/vsbys to MVFR. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceiling of 5000 feet or less this afternoon. Low tonight. * Low for thunderstorms late this afternoon/early this evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......AI/MV HYDROLOGY....TF AVIATION.....AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 356 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-010800- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 356 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. There is a very low chance a stray storm could become marginally severe, producing a wind gust up to 60 mph and hail up to one inch diameter. Storm mode would be discrete with storm motion west-northeast to east-southeast at 25 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional chances for thunderstorms exist Saturday and Sunday as a hotter, more humid airmass settles over the region. Greatest storm chances are expected to be in the afternoon and evening each day as diurnal instability reaches its peak. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-010800- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 356 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional chances for thunderstorms exist Saturday and Sunday as a hotter, more humid airmass settles over the region. Greatest storm chances are expected to be in the afternoon and evening each day as diurnal instability reaches its peak. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. AM
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
542 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023
MIZ047-053-302245-
Saginaw MI-Midland MI-
542 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Saginaw and
southeastern Midland Counties through 645 PM EDT...
At 542 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Merrill, or 9 miles west of Freeland, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Freeland around 555 PM EDT.
Zilwaukee around 620 PM EDT.
Saginaw around 625 PM EDT.
Bridgeport around 630 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Nelson, Carrollton,
Garfield, Buena Vista Township, Poseyville, Indiantown, Laporte, Swan
Creek, Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge and Fosters.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4355 8437 4353 8405 4352 8405 4352 8382
4351 8381 4323 8393 4321 8393 4331 8432
4343 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 290DEG 22KT 4349 8429
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
MVThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 136 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:10 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1109293.