A cold front approached Kentucky from the northwest overnight, and passed through the state during the afternoon and evening hours. An MCS that had developed along the front the previous day dropped southeastward overnight, with a defined outflow boundary on the WPC surface maps.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A cold front approached Kentucky from the northwest overnight, and passed through the state during the afternoon and evening hours. An MCS that had developed along the front the previous day dropped southeastward overnight, with a defined outflow boundary on the WPC surface maps. These initial storms led to four warnings, and one report of wind damage from an NWS employee. The main action occurred later in the day, as eastern Kentucky found itself in a moist and unstable airmass just ahead of the incoming cold front. Most the the Jackson, KY warning forecast area was warned at some point, with the main impact being damaging winds as most of the storms formed into bowing segments with strongest winds along the front edge. Numerous reports of trees down were made across multiple counties through the early and mid-afternoon hours, before the quick-moving system pushed southeast out of the state.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 6:00 AM EST, 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 700 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 655 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2023 Raised PoPs through this morning as radar shows isolated showers and thunderstorms developing to the west and moving into northern and western parts of the forecast area. No other changes except to update with latest observations. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 405 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a passing cold front moving in from the northwest today, and there is a chance that at least one or two of these storms will be severe with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats given the moderate instability and sufficient wind shear expected. That much of the forecast is high confidence. However, the parts of the forecast that are low confidence are the timing of the cold front and associated thunderstorm activity, as well as just how high the heat index will reach this afternoon which may necessitate issuance of another Heat Advisory for some areas. As for the heat and humidity, latest forecasts suggest a few locations may reach the 105 heat index threshold this afternoon to warrant a Heat Advisory issuance. However, there are caveats to whether heat indices will reach these levels, including potential cloud cover and convective activity. Will issue a Special Weather Statement to mention the heat and humidity today as a hedge, with the possibility of issuing an advisory with the morning updates if confidence increases that cloud cover and thunderstorm activity holds off until later in the afternoon and evening. As for showers and thunderstorm activity, the main issue is trying to nail down the timing. Many CAMS as well as the EC operational model have convective initiation in the mid-afternoon, while the operational GFS does not bring convective activity into the forecast area until sunset or later. Some CAMS even suggest leftover convective activity moving southeast from the current MCS over the Midwest bringing clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms late this morning. The primary threats with today's storms will be damaging wind gusts and excessive rainfall, with large hail a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center continues to forecast a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today for the entire forecast area, with the exception of parts of Pike County which is in a Slight Risk. WPC has issued a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for practically the entire forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms look to continue into Saturday night and linger through the overnight hours before gradually tapering off from north to south through the day Sunday. Temperatures will be much closer to normal Sunday, perhaps even slightly below normal in a few locations, with mid- to upper-80s expected. Humidity will also be trending downward behind the cold frontal passage. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 405 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2023 The extended period should start off relatively quite, as high pressure begins to push into the region. A few showers and storms may linger across portions of the area Sunday evening, as a shortwave rotates around the southwestern portion of a large trough that itself will be moving through New England to begin the period. Once this system moves off to our east, high pressure will be poised to take over late Monday night. After that, we can expect dry weather to begin the new work, and could possibly be dry through most of the day on Wednesday. As it stand, another weather system will be approaching from the west mid-week, and could allow for a few pop up showers and storms on Wednesday, but this low confidence at this time. The better chances for rain should arrive Wednesday night, as a trough of low pressure ejects from the central Plains and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. This system will drag a slow moving cold through the region. The latest model data is suggesting that this boundary may even stall out, or nearly stall out, over our area to end the week and into the weekend. The best rain chances each of those days will be during the afternoon and early evening hours, while peak heating is still occurring. Temperatures will still be warm in the extended, but cooler air should be able to make its way into our area after the first weather system exits to the east. The incoming clouds and rain from Wednesday onward will keep temperatures during the daytime periods from reaching the extremely highs values we saw during the week. In fact, temperatures in the extended should be right around normal the whole time, which will be a welcome change from what we saw over the past several days. Daily highs should max out mostly in the low to mid 80s, with nightly lows ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2023 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing near and west of KSYM this morning, with showers and thunderstorms slowly expanding south and east across the forecast area the remainder of this morning. Expect a relative lull in activity early this afternoon before more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity develops mid-afternoon through this evening, slowly tapering off overnight into Sunday. Fog is likely Sunday morning where heavy rain occurs today, which may include all TAF locations. VFR conditions likely prevail outside of the shower/thunderstorm activity and overnight fog, where MVFR/IFR/LIFR are possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CMC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 349 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-300800- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 349 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible at times today through tonight. Some storms could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Additionally, the combination of heat and humidity may cause heat- related illnesses this afternoon, especially if thunderstorm activity holds off until this evening. Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are forecast for many locations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning and afternoon. Thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday through Friday of next week, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. JKL
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson KY 339 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-292200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 339 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 ...Hot and muggy conditions may cause heat-related illnesses this afternoon... Heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees this afternoon and early evening may cause heat-related illnesses to occur, especially if precautions are not taken. Isolated locations may see heat indices reach as high as 107 degrees, though forecast confidence is low. If planning to spend extended time outdoors this afternoon, please drink plenty of fluids, and consider rescheduling strenuous activities to the morning or evening. Wear lightweight and loose- fitting clothing when possible. Schedule frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke, and call 911 if you suspect someone is suffering from heat stroke. A cold frontal passage tonight or early Sunday will bring cooler near normal to below normal temperatures for Sunday through the coming week. CMC
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
727 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
KYZ050-059-060-106-108-291215-
Montgomery KY-Menifee KY-Morgan KY-Powell KY-Wolfe KY-
727 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Powell,
southeastern Montgomery, southwestern Morgan, Menifee and Wolfe
Counties through 815 AM EDT...
At 727 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fagan, or 7 miles northeast of Stanton, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Frenchburg and Natural Bridge S.P. around 735 AM EDT.
Mariba, Red River Gorge, Koomer Ridge Campground, Jenson and Pine
Ridge around 740 AM EDT.
Wellington, Pomeroyton, Stoll and Denniston around 745 AM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Campton, Maytown,
Valeria, Gosneyville, Ezel, Calaboose, Artville, Stillwater, Korea,
Ebon, Murphyfork, Toliver, Hazel Green, Pekin, Trent, Omer, Landsaw,
Baptist, Henry, Rexville, Demund, Nickell, Daysboro, Mize, Grassy
Creek, Lower Gilmore, New Cummer, Gilmore, Payton, Lizzielane, Cannel
City, Sellars, Stacy Fork, Panama, Adele, Helechawa, Greear, Malone,
Lewis, Caney, Holliday, Well Station, Burg, Wheel Rim, Belknap,
Gordon Ford, Burkhart and Cottle.
THIS INCLUDES Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 22
and 63.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3800 8375 3792 8318 3778 8324 3777 8327
3775 8325 3768 8329 3768 8334 3770 8339
3769 8342 3783 8387 3801 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1127Z 285DEG 35KT 3791 8375
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CMCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
744 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
KYZ058-069-111-112-114-291230-
Jackson KY-Lee KY-Breathitt KY-Estill KY-Owsley KY-
744 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Owsley,
southeastern Estill, north central Jackson, southwestern Breathitt
and Lee Counties through 830 AM EDT...
At 744 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alumbaugh, or near Irvine, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Crystal, Old Orchard and Arvel around 750 AM EDT.
Willow Shoals, Yellow Rock, Pinnacle, Old Landing, Whynot,
Banford, Greeley and Earnestville around 755 AM EDT.
Belle Point, Heidelberg, Caryton, Mount Olive, Cressmont, Ida May,
Delvinta and Wild Dog around 800 AM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Beattyville,
Fincastle, Proctor, Corgleton, White Ash, Maloney, Pebworth, Levi,
Booneville, Enoch, Grass, Lower Buffalo, St. Helens, Stay, Airedale,
Primrose, Turin, Scoville, Lone, Tallega, Athol, Canyon Falls,
Monica, Lerose, Fillmore, Chestnut Gap, Vada, Eversole, Jetts Creek,
Oakdale, Cowcreek, Widecreek, Guerrant, Copebranch, Turkey, Chenowee,
Yeadon, Houston, War Creek, Lawson and Arnett.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3756 8403 3772 8397 3763 8350 3762 8349
3763 8349 3760 8336 3737 8346 3737 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 289DEG 31KT 3762 8392
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CMCThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 26 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:53 UTC.
25 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An off-duty NWS employee reported 2 large trees down on Stamper Branch Road near mile marker 3 in the community of Hazel Green.
A picture was shared on social media of a large limb broken off a tree in the 3100 block of Tipton Ridge Road, east of Irvine and Ravenna.
A tree was blown down onto Millers Creek Road near the railroad crossing, just ESE of Ravenna.
The county dispatch reported two trees blown down on Renfro Creek Road. One tree was large and laid across the entire highway near the intersection with Hurricane School Road. The other, smaller tree was reported about 1.5 miles out of Mount Vernon.
Multiple reports were received of a tree blown down onto Big Cave Road (KY-1004), about a mile and a half outside of Mount Vernon.
A tree was blown down onto Coal Harbor Lane near the community of Typo.
Powerlines were blown down at the 2300 block of Big Willard Road near the community of Busy.
A tree was blown down in the 4300 block of KY-15 in the Bonnyman community.
Power lines were blown down along Browns Fork Road just southwest of Hazard.
Powerlines were blown down near the intersection of Oakhurst Avenue and Brown Street in Hazard.
Powerlines were blown down along Whitaker Fork Road near the community of Avawam.
An off-duty NWS employee estimated winds of 60mph in Hazard as the storm passed through.
A social media report showed damage of a metal awning on a business near the 300 block of Main Street in Hazard.
A power pole was split by a fallen tree along US-421 near mile marker 26.
A beech tree was blown down onto a powerline, blocking both lanes of traffic on Dry Hill Road near the Dryhill community.
A tree was blown down and blocking one lane of Davidson Fork Road.
KYTC District 12 reported that KY-160 near the intersection with KY-899 was closed due to a tree that fell onto power and telephone lines.
A tree was blown down and blocking 1 lane of US-421 around mile marker 11 in the community of Asher.
WXKQ relayed a social media report showing a large tree down on the Camp Branch side of Thorton (Thorton Road) in the vicinity of Tim Hall Timber Trucking.
HAM operator reported a downed tree on KY-413 which lead to a power outage in the Rosspoint area of Baxter.
Several trees were blown down onto powerlines in the Holiday Acres Trailer Park near the community of Loyall.
Pictures on social media show several large limbs down in a yard along Baker Street in the community of Elcomb, just outside of Harlan.
Trees were blown down into powerlines along KY-3001 in front of the Harlan County Country Club.
Radio station WRIL reported a snapped power pole on KY-987 near the intersection of Baker Hill Road (close to Community Harvest Tabernacle). In addition, the KSP post in Harlan also reported a tree had blown down onto KY-987 in the same vicinity, blocking both lanes.
Dispatch reported a tree down and onto powerlines along KY-1643 near the community of Meece.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1124658, 1124848, 1124850, 1124670, 1124677, 1124726, 1124734, 1124741, 1124743, 1124744, 1124745, 1124747, 1124750, 1124754, 1124755, 1124837, 1124840, 1124838, 1124753, 1124841, 1124842, 1124844, 1124846, 1124854, 1124678.