Drought in Kansas, October 1 to 31, 2023

During October 2023, the majority of this six-county North Central Kansas area spent the entire month assigned at least Severe Drought (D2) by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), with at least 85 percent of the domain mired in at least Moderate Drought (D1) throughout the month as a long-term drought situation lumbered on. October marked the 21st-consecutive month with at-least-D2 plaguing portions of the local area, and the seventh-straight month with at least limited coverage of Extreme Drought (D3). Unfortunately, following some encouraging rainfall trends back in August, October marked the second-straight month with prevailing drier-than-normal precipitation across at least the vast majority of the area. In fact, at least 98 percent of the six-county domain registered below normal October precipitation, with the combined dryness of September and October pegging near-record levels in especially southwestern Rooks County (see below for more specific monthly precipitation details). Despite the prevalent October dryness, at least 95% of the area remained stable/unchanged with regard to USDM drought categories. Diving deeper into the details, the month opened with the drought situation as follows: 1) D3 persisted within at least 20% of North Central Kansas, including most of Rooks and western Mitchell counties...2) A sizable swath of D2 surrounded the D3 zone, with the combined D2+D3 areas constituting at least 70% of North Central Kansas...3) Limited coverage of D1 (only about 10% of the total area) resided across parts of Phillips, Smith and southeastern Mitchell counties...4) Best-off Abnormally Dry (D0) prevailed within much of northern Phillips and northwestern Smith counties (but only accounting for around 15% of North Central Kansas). As October unfolded, the vast majority of the aforementioned categories held firm. However, during the first half of the month there was a small zone of one-category degradation in southeastern Mitchell County (D1 to D2) and a tiny sliver of one-category improvement in far northwestern Jewell County (D2 to D1).

Turning to October 2023 precipitation details, it was a disappointing story across the six counties as a whole, as all but perhaps a tiny stripe of extreme southern Rooks/Osborne counties received below normal precipitation (meaning less than roughly 1.94). More concerningly, at least two-thirds of North Central Kansas picked up no more than half-normal amounts. Although the overall-driest zones were scattered throughout various pockets of the area, the most pronounced dryness concentrated within especially western Rooks, southeastern Phillips, northern Jewell and northern Mitchell counties. Per around 25 ground-truth gauges (NWS/CoCoRaHS observers and KS Mesonet stations), a few of the very-driest October tallies included: 0.12 four miles west-northwest of Plainville, 0.30 five miles north of Webster Reservoir and 0.50 four miles south of Burr Oak. Meanwhile, a few of the wettest (but still below normal) totals featured: 1.56 in Logan, 1.41 seven miles north-northeast of Natoma and 1.17 at Lovewell Dam. Taking into account the combined dryness of September+October, one of the most concerning situations was found at the NWS Cooperative Observer site four miles west-northwest of Plainville where merely 0.75 fell...not only just 19% of normal but also marking the second-driest September-October on record out of 114 years (besting only 0.68 in 1939). Regarding the much-longer-term drought situation, and focusing on one of the driest (versus normal) official NWS Cooperative Observer sites since early-2021, Beloit totaled merely 55.31 during the 31-month stretch from April 2021-Oct. 2023...a notable 26.73 below normal/67% of normal.