Heavy rain fell on May 31st leading to flash flooding in Miami and Leavenworth Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
Heavy rain fell on May 31st leading to flash flooding in Miami and Leavenworth Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 2:24 AM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 324 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 .Discussion... Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023 Key Messages: - Warm, Humid, and Likely Stormy Today - Similar Pattern Through Friday - Somewhat More Organized Activity Into The Weekend - Timing of Storms Remains Difficult To Pinpoint Discussion: The lack of mid to upper-level flow, with higher instability and airmass thunderstorms, with outflows producing more thunderstorms that then produce even more outflows, has the sound and look of a mid to late summer pattern. But, we are actually only on the final day of May. This similar kind of pattern is going to continue for at least the next couple of days. Timing of convection is hardest component to pinpoint with the forecast. In addition, several spots have seen an over performance with rainfall totals with respect to QPF expected from forecast a few days. The mesoscale environment found the moisture it needed. Rex Block pattern over the eastern CONUS is still in place. The center of the high has shifted slightly, currently centered over the New England Region with the low off the coast of the Carolinas. The PV anomaly off the west coast the last few days has finally come ashore in the far southwestern CONUS, resulting in a deeper H5 trough there. That is helping to maintain the amplified flow over the central CONUS, and continues to send multiple short-wave perturbations and secondary vorticity maximums across the region. At the low-levels, though weaker, still maintains a southerly component that brings in more moisture and warmer temperatures. The convective activity though has provided temporary relief at times, but the atmosphere has been able to quickly recover. In addition to the parade of vort maxes traversing the weak southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, there is an MCV hanging around the area associated with the activity over the Central and High Plains from Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Even with the passage of the one short-wave axis, this MCV provided extra convergence through a high theta-e airmass and sustained convection overnight and into the early morning hours Wednesday. As of 08z this morning, there was a cluster storms throughout eastern and northeastern Kansas, including the west portions of the KC Metro. These storms have had motions of less than 10 kts at times, resulting in locally heavy rainfall in some areas. The outflow boundaries from the Tuesday evening convection did help to eradicate a decent amount of the MLCAPE, thus has kept storms overnight from becoming deep enough to produce stronger cold pools, and thus have not seen overly gusty winds or a hail core. Even with these storms in the area, the transport of higher theta-e air will help to re-establish instability, and may see some recovery as early as 12-14z this morning. Another day of 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is certainly possible, though could be cut-off if this early morning convection lingers. However, given the numerous short-wave moving through, would expect a period of weak subsidence between passing short-wave axes that should provide some clearing to our skies (and maybe even weaken current convection). The HRRR attempts to take the current convection and intensify it as instability increases through the day, with new convection going up in west- central Missouri close to the remnant MCV. The environment certainly could support this kind of solution. However, any new outflow boundaries could end up being disruptive to the convergence with the MCV, or perhaps push it eastward out of the area. You could also make the argument that convergence along an outflow may result in additional thunderstorm activity. Overall, the flow remains weak, and thus will see storms struggle to become organized. Trying to track out currently detectable sources of lift, am thinking that timing between 10z-14z and then again from 23z-02z across most of Missouri and eastern Kansas would be the most likely timing for stronger storms, though convection is certainly possible outside of these two time windows. As for the wind threat, RAP/HRRR soundings do have some mixing again this afternoon that develops a shallow inverted-v sounding, but not nearly as deep as they were on Tuesday afternoon. Today they only extend up to about 1km. The moisture associated with convection has helped to keep the mixed layer a bit more shallow. Hail potential is about the same as yesterday, thermodynamically could support a stronger updraft with a few hail stones in it but the lack of vertical wind shear inhibits the necessary vertical pressure perturbations in updrafts to keep stones in the hail embryo growth zone. If a storm develops and another outflow boundary catches up to it, you may see a few radar scans that suddenly give the reflectivity a big jump, but then quickly comes back down. With weaker storm-relative flows, expect narrower updrafts that will struggle to maintain intensity for an extended period of time. The bigger concern with thunderstorms today will be the rainfall amounts. With storm motions less than 10 kts likely, we could see some areas receive between half an inch to one inch again. Even though we are dealing with drought conditions, these amounts if less than hour could result in flooding for lower laying areas, including highway ditches and underpasses. PWATs will be around 1.25 to 1.50 inches this afternoon, which may lend to more efficient rain producers like we saw on Tuesday. Looking at more of the same for Thursday morning and afternoon with respect to warm temperatures and shower/thunderstorm potential. Again weak flow will prevent activity from organizing much, driven mainly by outflow boundary convergence. If we get any storms that run into each other and congeal, perhaps another MCV develops and provides a focus point for stronger storms. Periods of subsidence between short-wave axes can can continue to provide boundary layer recovery, especially if clearing occurs in the afternoon during peak insolation. Friday into Saturday, synoptic scale models finally moves the main PV anomaly further eastward, and we will start to see stronger mid to upper-level flow across the High Plains and Central Plains. This may result in slightly better organization for convective activity heading into the weekend. Low-level flow will remain southerly thus keeping temperatures in the upper 80s with a few spots likely hitting the lower 90s. GEFS and other ensembles in the extended favor a warm and wet pattern as well, with most days through the weekend having at least a 60 percent chance for at least 0.10 inches of rainfall. Once again would expect locally higher amounts with stronger storms. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023 The wave of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening have dissipated. There are few other showers and storms in eastern Kansas but so far have remained away from the KC Metro terminals. There is still lingering cloud cover from the previous activity but most bases are at VFR. More shower and thunderstorm activity is likely at some point this afternoon. Timing is very hard to pinpoint with how weakly forced these storms are. Current thinking is that more activity could fire up around 11-12z timeframe along the MO-KS border. There should be enough instability that redevelops that most activity will be thunderstorms. Therefore, have placed a few hours of TSRA at the KC Metro terminals this morning. There is a conditional threat for more activity in the afternoon, dependent on how the morning activity evolves. Will need to watch satellite and radar trends closely today, but overall confidence on timing will be low to medium. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && Discussion...Krull Aviation...Krull
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 443 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-010945- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 443 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Areas near the Kansas and Missouri border will see ongoing thunderstorms this morning, which may persist into the afternoon. Minor flooding is possible with these storms. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity, but again there could be some minor flooding. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Daily chances for thunderstorms will persist each afternoon from Thursday through Saturday. At this time, severe weather is not expected with this activity. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:14 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
KOFO reported a car with water up to the door required a water rescue. This was an isolated report.
Water was along the road at 219th and 211th Streets.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104391, 1104393.