Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, May 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1102 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Isolated to widely scattered, diurnal convection will continue
across southeast/east central Oklahoma this afternoon. The primary
hazard with any thunderstorms will be brief, heavy rainfall and
gusty winds.

Thunderstorms have started to develop across the higher terrain to
the west. The remnants of the High Plains convection will move to
the east toward the Southern Plains tonight. The convection should
decay as it approaches the 100th meridian given the low-level jet
will remain to the west. As a result, the probability decreases
markedly with eastward extent from northwest Oklahoma. Any remnant
convection is not expected to be severe.

Otherwise, a mid-level ridge axis across the Southern Plains should
limit daytime convection on Wednesday with only a slight chance
(~15%) at any given location. There is a chance the remnants of
tonight's convection may serve as a focus for development tomorrow
afternoon, but the probability does not appear too high given the
mid-level ridge in place. Consequently, temperatures will be
seasonably warm from the mid to upper 80s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Another complex of thunderstorms is forecast to develop late
Wednesday across the High Plains. This complex has a higher
probability of making eastward progress into Oklahoma early
Thursday given the eastward shift of both the low-level jet and
mid-level ridge axis from the previous night. There also appears
to be a subtle PV anomaly/shortwave trough associated with this
convection, which increases the probability of eastward progress.
The remnants of this feature will result in a continued chance for
showers and thunderstorms during the day Thursday.

By Friday into the upcoming weekend, the subtropical jet is
progged to lift into the Southern Plains with Oklahoma and north
Texas on the northeast periphery of the stronger mid-level flow.

Combined with shortwave troughs rotating around a broad, upper-
level low across the southwest U.S., persist large-scale ascent
will be present across the Southern Plains. The thermodynamic
environment will be weakly capped with moderate precipitable water
values (~1.5"). As a result, convective coverage should increase
by Friday and continue through the weekend. While lower-end severe
weather is not out of the question given the increased vertical
wind shear, the primary hazard will be heavy rainfall and
localized flooding.

The subtropical jet is progged to shift back to the south by late
into the weekend into early next week. As a result, the
probability of showers/thunderstorms decreases; however, a
persistent weakness/upper-level low will result in a continued
chance of showers and thunderstorms (especially during the daytime
with diurnal heating) through the foreseeable future.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Line of storms to the north and west of the area will continue to
move southeast into western/northwestern Oklahoma overnight. Will
maintain a mention at both WWR/CSM overnight. Otherwise, expect
light south/southeast winds and VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  85  66  83 /  10  20  10  40
Hobart OK         64  87  64  83 /  20  10  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  65  88  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
Gage OK           62  85  62  79 /  50  20  40  50
Ponca City OK     63  86  64  85 /  10  20  10  50
Durant OK         64  88  65  87 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
303 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-312015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
303 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon across east
central into southeast Oklahoma, which could produce brief, strong
wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall.

Later tonight, northwest Oklahoma has a chance of a thunderstorms
from a decaying complex coming out of the panhandles. If storms
do make it into northwest Oklahoma, they could produce brief,
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a low chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, which
could produce brief, strong wind gusts and localized heavy rain.

Additional thunderstorm chances will spread over northwest
Oklahoma Wednesday night. Thunderstorm chances will then increase
and spread over the rest of the forecast area into the weekend.
The primary hazard will be heavy rainfall that could lead to
localized flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

OKZ004-310515-
Harper OK-
1136 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Harper
County through 1215 AM CDT...

At 1136 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northwest of Knowles to 6 miles
southeast of Beaver to 4 miles southeast of Bryans Corner. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rosston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9981 3677 9985 3672 10000 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 259DEG 26KT 3698 10035 3675 10045 3658 10075

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

WR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

OKZ009-010-310630-
Woodward OK-Ellis OK-
1245 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Ellis and west
central Woodward Counties through 130 AM CDT...

At 1245 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Lipscomb, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Shattuck, Arnett, Gage, Fargo, and Catesby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 9999 3648 9957 3626 9960 3599 9960
      3599 9981 3601 9983 3601 9985 3599 9987
      3599 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0545Z 273DEG 42KT 3630 10015

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

WR