Heavy Rain in Kansas, July 21, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
104 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

KDDC radar observations show a somewhat disheveled thunderstorm
complex extending from just southeast of Dodge City through Meade
County, and an associated precipitation shield that is covering
nearly all of southwest KS. This activity is progged by latest
CAMs to move slowly east-southeast, eventually exiting our area
around or shortly after sunrise. Isolated strong wind gusts in the
60-70 mph range are possible with these storms, however
instability is becoming increasingly depleted suggesting the
severe weather risk is nearing an end. That said, rainfall rates
of 1-2" per hour within these thunderstorms will pose a flooding
risk, with reports from Garden City indicating water rescues are
ongoing. Given anomalously high PWATs and slow moving storms,
flash flooding concerns will continue through much of the
overnight period. Once convection finally clears our area,
evaporatively cooled air will result in a pleasantly cool morning,
with lows in the low to mid 60s.

Daytime Friday, mostly cloudy skies are expected to linger through
much of the day owing to lingering moisture from the previous
night's significant rainfall. The lack of appreciable solar
insolation along with light east-northeasterly winds will bring a
much needed break from the hot/muggy airmass that's been
entrenched in the central plains for days, with highs in the mid
70s to low 80s. Friday night, weak surface high pressure will
promote light and variable winds, and with clearing skies,
radiational cooling will be favored with lows dropping into the
upper 50s to low 60s by sunrise Saturday morning.

Latest deterministic and ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS agree
this break from the heat will be short lived, as the subtropical
upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to build north
into the Great Basin leading to 500-mb height rises over
southwest KS. 850-mb temperatures will warm 5-7C in response,
which will translate to afternoon highs reaching into the upper
80s/near 90. There is some indication from recent CAMs and the
deterministic GFS that thunderstorms are possible favoring the
northern zones late Saturday afternoon, however confidence is not
high given no ensemble support.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

The rest of the extended period with be hot and dry. Sunday will be
the transition day with highs in the 80s. Monday and beyond, 90s will
prevail. A 597 dm high will plant itself across the greater region
and will be the impetus for the hot weather. Storm chances looks nil
as the anticyclone continues. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
with a few 100s degree readings possible as well. Lows are expected
to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints are not forecast
to be as high as they have been, so there are no slam dunk heat headlines
that are obvious for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Radar observations across southwest KS show decaying showers and
thunderstorms are impacting all terminals, bringing MVFR/IFR cigs
and vis. These conditions will continue for the next few hours as
the convective activity slowly makes its way through the area.
Given significant precipitation will have fallen from these
storms, abundant moisture will support lingering low stratus and
IFR cigs through much of the morning, recovering to MVFR by
16-17Z, and then finally VFR by mid-afternoon. Otherwise, strong
but variable winds will be likely within any thunderstorms that
impact any terminals, but light and variable winds should prevail
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  80  61  87 /  90  20   0   0
GCK  62  77  59  87 /  90  20   0   0
EHA  62  76  59  88 /  80  20  10   0
LBL  64  77  60  88 /  90  20  10   0
HYS  62  82  61  89 /  90  20   0   0
P28  66  80  63  87 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ early this morning for
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>080-084>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Springer

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
101 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 AM     Flash Flood      Garden City             37.98N 100.86W
07/21/2023                   Finney             KS   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reported multiple roads
            flooded across Graden City.

&&

RB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
103 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     Flash Flood      Garden City             37.98N 100.86W
07/21/2023                   Finney             KS   Broadcast Media

            flooded streets and yards across Garden City
            were reported with pictures through KAKE.

&&

RB

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
110 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Bloom               37.49N 99.96W
07/21/2023  M71 MPH          Ford               KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW9907 Bloom.

&&

GT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
128 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 AM     Flash Flood      Garden City             37.98N 100.86W
07/21/2023                   Finney             KS   Public

            Street/road flooding; Multiple Streets/roads
            closed; Vehicles stranded across the Garden
            City area.

&&

RB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
132 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     Rain             Holcomb                 37.99N 100.99W
07/21/2023  M3.00 inch       Finney             KS   Public

            Report was received from social media with
            pictures. Rainfall fell in a one-hour
            period.

&&

RB