Flash Flooding and Hail in Kansas, July 20, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Currently, there is some light showers and isolated thunderstorms across
NW Kansas. This activity is the most immediate short term concern and
would have little impacts overall and only impact the NW zones. Otherwise,
the main rain event is for mid to late evening tonight. Our 12Z RAOB
measured a PWAT of 1.55". This is above normal for the time of year.
By this evening, the forecast PWAT is expected to be in the 1.25 to
1.75" range. We are dealing with a very moist atmosphere and the QPF
amounts we have forecast bears this out. For storms, afternoon thunderstorms
will develop along the higher terrain of Colorado. This activity will
eventually shift SE as the evening wears on and should push across
the Kansas prairie later this evening. The best timing of this activity
is 6 pm to midnight. The main two threats are damaging convective outflows
of 60+ mph and very heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible.
Amounts of 1-3" will be possible for at least half of the FA. Have
expanded the Flood Watch farther east to account for this possible
evolution. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5" inches cannot be ruled out either
in more isolated spots. Have the highest of confidence in our western
zones for heavy rainfall. Storms will quickly move out of the FA during
the early morning hours. This is our last shot at precipitation for
a while, so hopefully most of you see some good amounts with preferably
less severe storms. Again, damaging winds is a distinct possibility
as this MCS rolls across the Kansas plain. For Saturday, the atmosphere
will have been worked over. Not expecting any storms in the wake of
the MCS. Highs tomorrow will be extremely pleasant with values in the
upper 70s. Get out and enjoy the highs because Summer and its ugly
high temperatures rears its head for the rest of the extended period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

The rest of the extended period with be hot and dry. Sunday will be
the transition day with highs in the 80s. Monday and beyond, 90s will
prevail. A 597 dm high will plant itself across the greater region
and will be the impetus for the hot weather. Storm chances looks nil
as the anticyclone continues. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
with a few 100s degree readings possible as well. Lows are expected
to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints are not forecast
to be as high as they have been, so there are no slam dunk heat headlines
that are obvious for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

VFR is expected through mid evening. Flight conditions expected to change
thereafter. A thunderstorm complex will move across terminals during
the 00Z to 04Z period. Have TSRA/CB/TEMPO groups to account for this
activity. Local MVFR cigs and vis possible in this storm activity.
In addition, strong outflow winds around 50 kt could be possible along
and ahead of the storms. Residual moisture will lead to IFR conditions
after the storms move through heading into the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  63  80  61 /  20  90  20   0
GCK  87  62  77  59 /  40  90  20   0
EHA  88  62  76  59 /  40  80  20  10
LBL  89  64  77  60 /  20  90  20  10
HYS  88  62  82  61 /  40  90  20   0
P28  91  66  80  63 /  10  90  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-
074>080-084>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
255 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 /155 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely to roll across southwest KS
tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours. Primary hazard will
be damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, however an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Springer