Drought in Kansas, August 1 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1213 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Flood Watch in effect overnight into Tuesday morning northeast
of Springfield. Few strong - severe storms possible.

2. Excessive Heat Warning Tuesday for the western counties. Heat
Advisory continues east to along the US 65 corridor.

3. Heat gradually shifts east during the middle to later part of
the week.

4. Pattern change starts this weekend which will start to bring in
some slightly cooler temperatures and more widespread rain
chances.

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

00z regional soundings show a moist and unstable airmass across
the area. SGF measured a 1.6in precipitable water value however
2.0inches was measured upstream in Topeka. An instability axis
and stationary front was present from eastern Kansas into
southwest Missouri with a 2000-3000j/kg reservoir of elevated CAPE
along and south of the stationary front. Steep mid level lapse
rates and 30kts of 0-6km shear was also evident.

Models have been in good agreement that after 10pm the low level
jet will develop across Kansas and nose into western Missouri.
This should act to force showers and thunderstorms somewhere east
of the KC metro to the north of the stationary front. These
storms will then start developing and training southeast into
central Missouri (Osage Beach - Rolla areas) and may continue
through the night and into Tuesday morning. The 850mb front is
situated across that region and given the instability and
moisture there is the potential for flash flooding. HREF data
continues to show high probs for an area of 2-4 inches of rainfall
with the prob matched mean showing pockets of 6 inches in
localized areas. Conceptually, this is a pattern that has produced
significant flash flooding in the past therefore we will be
monitoring this closely overnight. The main limiting factor to the
flooding threat is the drought/antecedent conditions as flash
flood guidance is high in that area. Regardless, rainfall rates of
1-3 inches per hour will likely cause flash flooding and we have
issued a Flood Watch for areas northeast of Springfield overnight
into Tuesday morning. We kept the watch a little larger to
account for any shifting in the precip axis. Areas further west
towards Springfield and especially Joplin have much lower chances
for rainfall.

Lastly, given the instability and weak shear, a few storms could
produce large hail to the size of quarters and damaging winds to
60mph. Mainly on the western flank of this activity, closer to the
large CAPE/instability reservoir. Frequent cloud to ground
lightning is likely as well.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Temperatures were starting to warm back up in the western CWA and
were in the upper 80s there. Further east, with more cloud cover
and still some lingering showers in the northeast CWA,
temperatures were in the mid 70s to low 80s. While we might not
reach widespread criteria this afternoon, we have decided to keep
the heat products going with many areas still without power from
last nights severe storms. In fact, we expanded the advisory
eastward to around the U.S. 65 corridor for both today and
Tuesday.

CAMS are in agreement on developing thunderstorms over the eastern
CWA late this evening into Tuesday morning. There is a marginal
risk for some strong to severe storms with damaging wind and large
hail the main risks. In addition, heavy rain will be possible and
any training storms could lead to some localized flooding.

Warmest temperatures on Tuesday will again be in the west, in
areas unaffected by the convection tonight into Tuesday morning.
Highs there could reach the upper 90s to around 102, but diminish
considerably in the east where low 80s are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

The convection should end over the east during the day Tuesday,
however CAMS are suggesting another thunderstorm complex late
Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, which could bring additional
heavy rain and thunderstorms to the eastern Ozarks. The majority
of this activity should exit the area by around sunrise on
Wednesday.

Upper level ridge axis will be over the area on Wednesday, with
low level south to southwesterly flow advecting in temperatures at
850mb to around 22-30 deg C. The east will still have some cloud
cover/precipitation potential to deal with which will keep
temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90, however the heat out
west will expand more eastward with a larger area getting into the
upper 90s to around 104 for highs. Heat index values will range
from 96 to 115.

The upper ridge will remain over the area through Thursday, but
will start to flatten out and then retrograde to the west as a
series of shortwaves begin to break it down. This should start to
bring temperatures back down into the 90s by the weekend and the
80s by early next week. Rain chances will also be on the increase.
The pattern change will linger into the 8 to 14 day outlook period
which is showing signs of cooler than normal and wetter than
normal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period. Showers have developed in north central Missouri and
are expected to continue developing and moving southeast through
the area, but they should stay east of the TAF sites. There is an
approximate 30% chance of impacts at SGF around 12Z, which could
result in temporary MVFR conditions. South-southwesterly winds
may become gusty up to 20 kts at SGF near the end of the period,
but will otherwise stay below 10 kts around the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

     Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-068>071-
     080>083-092-098.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ055-067-068-078-079-089-090-094-095-102>104.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Nelson

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
845 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
845 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will develop near or just after
midnight across central Missouri and move over the same areas
repeatedly. A few severe storms with hail to the size of quarters
and damaging winds to 60 mph will be possible. Frequent cloud to
ground lightning is likely.

Of greater concern is the potential for flash flooding as very
heavy rainfall rates occur. Areas northeast of Springfield have
the highest chances for flash flooding overnight into Tuesday
morning. This is where an area of 2-4 inches of rainfall looks to
develop with localized amounts to 6 inches. If these heavier
amounts occur then some significant flash flooding would be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Saturday.

Hot conditions are expected to continue through the weekend into
next week with heat index values similar each day as they top out
in the upper 90s to 110 degree range. The hottest conditions will
occur across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri.

Another thunderstorm complex will be possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with strong to marginally severe storms again
possible and the risk for localized flooding. The main risk will
again be east of the highway 65 corridor.

The heat will continue to build back up this week with western
Missouri and southeast Kansas remaining the hottest with heat
index values from 105 to 110 and will gradually spread eastward
through the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
738 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Golden City         37.43N 94.09W
07/30/2023                   Barton             MO   Public

            Corrects time of previous tstm wnd dmg
            report from 3 N Golden City. Several trees
            uprooted or snapped and shingles blow off a
            roof. Delayed Report.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1012 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lowry City              38.14N 93.72W
07/30/2023                   St. Clair          MO   Public

            Delayed report of tree down on mobile home.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1020 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Vista               37.99N 93.72W
07/30/2023                   St. Clair          MO   Utility Company

            tree damage to lines occurred across
            southern St Clair county per utility
            company.

&&

MB