Northwest Kansas continued to see improvements with the drought. Nearly all of the D2 Severe Drought area had shifted east.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
Northwest Kansas continued to see improvements with the drought. Nearly all of the D2 Severe Drought area had shifted east. However, three counties continued to have D2 to D3 Extreme Drought conditions. Precipitation ranged from an inch and a half to eight inches, with some of the highest amounts falling in Norton County. Normal precipitation ranges from two to three inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 10:32 PM CST, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1032 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 707 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 With temperatures continuing to fall in the Heat Advisory area, criteria is no longer being met, so have allowed the Advisory to expire on time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Upper ridge over the central Plains today will gradually shift south and weaken through the short term period. Temperatures will gradually return to near normal. Shortwaves rotating around the ridge will begin to impact the area with increasing chances for thunderstorms. Tonight, with the ridge axis still nearby expect to receive only a glancing blow from thunderstorms moving off the Front Range into western Nebraska. These will mainly impact Yuma County in Colorado and Dundy County in Nebraska, with a marginal risk for wind and hail meeting severe criteria from around 03z to 09z. Outflow from these storms will likely reinforce the upslope surface winds already in most of the area resulting in low clouds and patchy fog through mid Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. For Tuesday, temperatures start their decline with highs ranging from the upper 80s in northeast Colorado to the upper 90s in north central Kansas. At this time, not expecting to meet Heat Advisory criteria. Precipitation chances will hold off until after 00z, then expecting a complex of storms to move out of Colorado and across the entire area Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible generally along and north of Interstate 70 where HREF is showing low probabilities of receiving 3" in 3 hours. WPC has also extended the slight risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday night into the same areas. SPC has extended the marginal risk for severe storms into the entire area for Tuesday night. Wind will likely be the main hazard, though a few instances of marginally severe hail will be possible as well. Deep layer shear values of 20 kts or less and weak instability will limit the hail threat. For Wednesday and Thursday, the pattern does not change with shortwaves rotating around the ridge and across the area. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with chances for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue. The severe risk on Wednesday will again be limited by fairly weak deep layer shear of 20-25 kts, but on Thursday the shear is forecast to increase to 30-40 kts which may be indicative of a higher risk for severe storms. Current forecasts show instability of up to 2000 j/kg for areas north of Interstate 70 Thursday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 110 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 The Tri-State area looks to be located on the northern periphery of an expansive area of high pressure over the southern Plains. This will allow for cooler and wetter conditions to be present for the extended portion of the area as multiple disturbances will move across the area during this time frame. The overall pattern is somewhat similar to what the area saw in late May through nearly all of June with multiple disturbances moving across the area resulting in some severe potential, however shear less than 25 knots will limit how widespread the severe potential is most days. Friday, the first round in the extended period of disturbances moving across the area looks to occur. Currently it appears the storms will develop near the front range and move east into the area, as they grow upscale into a large complex. Through the day, aloft a 250mb jet streak will be nudging into the Rockies which should help support additional ascent and upper level support for longer lived areas of convection. Through the evening, PWATS will increase which will lead to areas of heavy to potentially torrential rainfall. Saturday may be the day in the extended to watch as the above mentioned 250mb jet streak works its way onto the Colorado Plains. GFS forecast soundings currently show a considerable amount of more shear around 45-55 knots which would support the potential for supercells; shear does wane the further east you go which makes me think that the initial cells will again congeal into a large cluster or perhaps MCS. Overnight soundings do catch my eye as there has been fairly decent agreement with saturation throughout the column across Kansas and Nebraska leading to classic skinny CAPE profile as PWATS jump up to 1.5 to 1.7 across the area. Corfidi vectors remain somewhat fast around 20-30 knots which would limit any widespread flooding potential. Isolated flooding may be a concern especially for areas that receive rainfall Friday. Sunday, currently looks to see mostly cloudy to cloudy skies all day as sounding profile remains moist. The area remains in the entrance portion of the above mentioned jet streak should help keep showers and storms going for the majority of the day. This run of the GFS does have significantly slower Corfidi vectors which would support slower storm motion. Temperatures for the extended period are currently forecasted to be around normal in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area on Friday before more widespread below normal temperatures move into the area Saturday with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Sunday, I lowered temperatures a few degrees, somewhat similar to what the CONSRAW is suggesting due to the potential for cloud cover all day and rain developing in the early afternoon which would overall limit diurnal heating. High temperatures for Sunday are currently forecasted in the low 70s to low 80s across the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1032 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 For KGLD, VFR conditions for much of the forecast period. From 09z-15z, 3-6sm in fog possible with IFR ceilings. Some showers and even storm potential are possible after 00z Wednesday timing that far out is low so have left out of forecast at this time. Winds, east around 10kts through 09z, then north. By 15z Tuesday, northeast around 10kts, veering to the west by 00z Wednesday. For KMCK, VFR conditions for much of the forecast period. From 09z-17z, 3-6sm in fog possible with IFR ceilings, especially from 09z-12z Tuesday. Some showers and even storm potential are possible after 02z Wednesday timing that far out is low so have left out of forecast at this time. Winds, east northeast around 10kts through 02z Wednesday, then west. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...JN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 706 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-020115- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 706 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 /806 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... Isolated to scattered storms are possible this evening into the overnight hours, mainly for areas along and north of I-70. Hazards include up to 60 mph wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... There will be increased potential for thunderstorms late this week into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please send any severe reports to the NWS Goodland office via social media or phone.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Precipitation for the month ranged from an inch and a half to six inches, with the highest amounts falling in the east half of the county. This was near normal to three inches above normal. Normal precipitation ranges from two to three inches.
Precipitation for the month ranged from two to six inches. This was near normal to three inches above normal. Normal precipitation ranges from two to three inches.
Precipitation for the month ranged from two to eight inches. This was near normal to five inches above normal. Normal precipitation ranges from two to three inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1133507, 1133508, 1133509.