Snowmelt during late March resulted in rises on some small streams and creeks across the region. Some of these rises pushed toward or into minor flood stage for a short period, but overall impacts were limited mainly to agricultural land.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
Snowmelt during late March resulted in rises on some small streams and creeks across the region. Some of these rises pushed toward or into minor flood stage for a short period, but overall impacts were limited mainly to agricultural land.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 28, 9:53 PM CST, 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1053 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 KEY MESSAGES: 1. A band of light snow develops across the area overnight with accumulations of a few tenths up to an inch. 2. Warmer by Thursday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday evening. 3. Rain begins to turn to snow by Friday with a potential for impactful snow for parts of the area during the day. TONIGHT: A cold front presently dropping into the northwestern portions of the CWA this afternoon will continue to slide southward, exiting our CWA by late evening as a surface high builds into the area. With the cold air advection behind the front, breezy northwesterly winds will develop for the early part of the night before easing late. Otherwise, a weak upper level shortwave tracks across the area overnight as lift increases with an upper level jet max streaming to the southeast from ND into northern IA during the night time hours. Almost all global and hi-res models continue to indicate a band of light snow developing across the area by late evening in the vicinity of a low to mid level boundary, with minor variations as to where this band develops. Consensus would suggest the better chances of light snow residing along and south of Interstate 90, with amounts running from a few tenths upwards to close to one inch. With the cold air advection, temperatures will drop into the single digits through the Highway 14 corridor, up to the teens south of this area where clouds and stronger winds will persist longer. WEDNESDAY: Any light snow should be exiting the area by early Wednesday morning, as the surface ridge continues to settle into the region through the day. It will be a cooler day with highs in the 20s over snow covered areas to the north to 30s over snow free locations to the south. Northerly winds early will transition to east/southeasterly by afternoon as the surface high drifts to the east. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The surface ridge slides into the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday night, and southeasterly winds will increase during the night as winds aloft increase and the surface gradient begins to tighten as a low pressure trough deepens over eastern WY. With the breezy winds and evolving warm air advection, temperatures will be a little milder than recent nights, though still looking at lows mostly in the teens and 20s. THURSDAY: As we head into first half of Thursday, mild and windy conditions will be on tap as the upper level ridge continues to push eastward through the region. WAA aloft will begin to intensify and spread across the area throughout the day bring temperatures near to above their seasonal normals. The resulting high temperatures will likely be in the 40s and 50s for most places; with areas along the Missouri River Valley getting into the low 60s. With a surface high east of our area and a Colorado low developing to the southwest, the surface pressure gradient (SPG) is expected to tighten through the day Thursday. This will result in strong southeasterly winds with gusts between 30-35 mph. THURSDAY NIGHT: Our attention will then shifts to the Rockies Thursday night into Friday as a developing Colorado low gets ejected into the central and northern plains bringing our next chance for precipitation. While timing and track differences in 12z deterministic guidance continue to promote some degree of uncertainty, the Colorado low will mostly likely track northeastward after starting somewhere in southwestern Nebraska. Looking aloft, a coupled jet moving overhead will provide plenty of upper level support for the incoming low. However, sounding profiles continue to show insufficient amounts of instability (CAPE < 1000 J/kg) to get anything sustained. As a result, the probability of severe weather continues to be low. Nonetheless, there is still enough instability to get a few rumbles of thunder especially across northwestern IA. With precipitable water in the 90th percentile of climatology and ensemble guidance continuing to show higher probabilities (60-90%) of exceed 0.10 inches of QPF, periods of light to moderate rain will definitely be possible. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: Looking into the start of the weekend, the upper level wave finally gets ejected from the rockies into the northern plains on Friday bringing another round of precipitation to the region. Precipitation will likely start as a rain and a wintry mix early before transitioning to fully snow sometime in the afternoon/evening timeframe. Uncertainty still remains on when this changeover will occur mostly due to temperature differences between model guidance. Given the below normal confidence for this period, its important to monitor the forecast over the next several days as more details regarding the rain/snow amounts, changeover timing, and potential impacts become more clear. Otherwise, strong northwesterly winds with gusts between 35-40 mph will be possible behind the system Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Winds will begin to gradually taper off Saturday afternoon as more predominant surface ridging moves into region bring the return of quiet conditions and warmer conditions to end the weekend. MONDAY AND TUESDAY: Heading into the early part of next week, mostly quiet and mild conditions on Monday and Tuesday will give way to another chance for precipitation by Wednesday. However, with the timing and intensity difference this far out; confidence is low in precipitation amounts and occurrence. Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest details. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Northerly winds continue to prevail across the region, with latest satellite imagery showing stratus beginning to drift in from the west. As alluded to in the previous discussion, still looks like a light band of snow could develop across the area shortly after midnight, with KFSD the most likely TAF site to have brief reductions in vsbys as the precipitation moves through. Otherwise, should see dry conditions return near/shortly after daybreak, with winds forecast to become more northeasterly during the afternoon hours. Direction then looks to become more east/southeasterly by the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...Gumbs AVIATION...SST
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 752 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-300100- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook- Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton- Union- 752 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A brief period of light snow will be possible tonight as a cold front continues to dive southeastward across the region. Any accumulations are expected to remain below one inch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Precipitation chances return Thursday through Friday night, but confidence in details regarding precipitation types and amounts is low at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Little Sioux River near Milford rose above flood stage on the evening of March 28th before cresting around 0.03 feet above flood stage (12.03 feet) early in the morning on March 29th and then quickly falling below flood stage.
The Little Sioux River near Milford rose above flood stage on the evening of March 28th before cresting around 0.03 feet above flood stage (12.03 feet) early in the morning on March 29th and then quickly falling below flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1089198, 1089199.