Minor flooding occurred along sections of the Ohio River. The flooding was due to a series of frontal passages that brought showers and thunderstorms on ground that was already very moist.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Minor flooding occurred along sections of the Ohio River. The flooding was due to a series of frontal passages that brought showers and thunderstorms on ground that was already very moist. The widespread heavy rain event on the 16th was the primary reason for this minor flooding event on the Ohio River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 20, 5:11 AM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 511 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 510 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 A front will bring the risk for a few light rain showers from northwest to southeast through 15z this morning. These should not amount to much as thermal profiles show a deep dry layer below 750 mb that will result in some of the pcpn being virga. The greatest chance to see a few hundredths of an inch at most is across western Kentucky. Otherwise, zonal mid-level flow will allow for dry conditions from Monday afternoon through Tuesday as the front remains south of the FA. Highs today will be in the low to mid 60s while Tuesday will be a bit cooler in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday night, mid to upper level heights will rapidly rise as a ridge builds across the lower Ohio Valley. As a warm front pushes north overnight and causes isentropic lift, the chance for scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with elevated instability increases. The greatest pcpn chances are across southwest IN and portions of southern IL along I-64 as the 0z deterministic models remain farther north. A bit of a lull will then occur Wednesday morning as the FA will be well in the warm sector with southerly flow. This will cause high temps to be much warmer in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The main focus then becomes Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as a 500 mb shortwave approaches the FA and causes ascent. Models remain in good agreement that a low pressure system will track to our west. Elevated instability still looks to be marginal at best supporting some possible convection. Categorical PoPs are progged by the NBM to spread from west to east before tapering off Wednesday night as showers and thunderstorms move through. Total QPF on average is between 0.3-0.6" with localized higher amounts possible. The other concern and main weather headline will be the synoptic winds. The pressure gradient really tightens Wednesday afternoon when models show a LLJ peaking with 925 mb winds near 45-50 kts. Wind advisory level winds remain possible, especially across portions of southeast MO, southern IL, and far western KY where wind gusts between 35-45 mph are most likely to occur. Given NBM's high bias, did a 50/50 blend with CONSAll to match up with our WFO neighbors. Winds likely drop below advisory level Wednesday night as BUFKIT soundings show mixing in the boundary layer peaking late in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 We will be in an active pattern through next weekend, but it will primarily involve rain and some strong winds. A strong cold front will move through the region Thursday, as a storm system moves east through the Great Lakes. The flow aloft will be fast and zonal Friday and Saturday and then become northwest Sunday, as a disturbance moves southeast through Ontario, and another storm system sets up shop over the Four Corners. At the surface, a significant surface high will move east to the Great Lakes Friday and push the active boundary down to near the Gulf Coast. Winds will briefly become southerly Saturday ahead of the Ontario system, but the cold front will pass Saturday night, allowing surface high pressure to build back over the Ohio Valley Sunday. Strong winds are expected on either side of the cold front Thursday. There is some potential that a Wind Advisory may be needed in the northeast. The NBM forecast is dry for Thursday, but the 00Z ECMWF has some light QPF ahead of the front over west Kentucky in the morning. Some at least light precipitation is expected throughout the region Friday night through Saturday due to warm advection ahead of the Ontario system. The 00Z guidance pushes the precipitation south of the area by 12Z Sunday, which is much faster than WPC QPF or the NBM PoPs would suggest. Much of the region is likely to be dry on Sunday and the northern half of the region may be dry for much of Saturday. This forecast advertises a much more dreary weekend than the latest guidance indicates. This will be a rain event with no winter or thunder concerns. Stormtotal QPF from Friday night through Sunday night ranges from 1" in the northwest to nearly 2" in the southeast. This appears to be way overdone, especially if Sunday ends up dry. Some precipitation may return to southeast Missouri late Sunday night as that Four Corners system lifts out. That system will bring more gusty wind, thunderstorm, and heavy rainfall potential to the region next Monday. Temperatures will start off well above normal even if the NBM highs Thursday are overdone. Temperatures may fall behind the front. Lows Thursday night will be back to near normal levels, and highs Friday will be a few degrees below normal. Friday night through Saturday night will see temperatures back well above normal. Above normal temperatures will likely continue through Sunday, but if the surface high builds over the region, the NBM highs are likely too high. As south winds return Monday, the above normal temperatures will continue despite the expected rain. && .AVIATION... Issued at 510 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 A few SCT MVFR cigs remain possible this morning as a few light rain showers move through. Confidence in seeing showers at any TAF site is still low, so only included VCSH mention. Due to low level dry air, some of the pcpn is evaporating before reaching the ground or only resulting in sprinkles. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the rest of the period as high clouds increase in coverage tonight. Light southwest winds between 5-10 kts is expected. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...DW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 242 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-211100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 242 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 /342 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Strong south winds may gust 30 to 40 mph Wednesday. A few thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday night mainly across the northern half of the region, and Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening throughout the area. West winds may gust 30 to 35 mph Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DW/DRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding on the Ohio River inundated some low-lying woods and fields near the river.
Minor flooding on the Ohio River inundated some low-lying woods and fields near the river.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1075702, 1075705.