Drought in Indiana, December 12 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
545 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

.Key Messages...

- Dry and Seasonable today and tonight.

- Dry weather for the upcoming work week, with near to slightly
above normal highs and near normal lows.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
place across the southeastern states. A surface trough was found
across western Wisconsin and Central Iowa. This trough extended from
deep low pressure found northern Ontario. Another area of high
pressure was found over the northern plains. Aloft, water vapor
showed a deep low near Hudson Bay, and a second trough was found
over the northwestern United States. Northwest flow was found in
place aloft between these two systems, streaming from the northern
plains into the Ohio Valley. GOES16 shows clear skies across Central
Indiana and light southerly winds were in place ahead of the trough.

Today...

Models suggest the northwest flow aloft will remain in place across
Central Indiana. Little in the way of forcing dynamics will pass
today. The surface high to the southeast will continue to push
southeast this morning and the surface trough to the northwest will
pass across Indiana through the day aided by the quick northwest
steering flow aloft. No clouds were found along this surface trough
along with no dynamics. Thus it will mainly act just as a wind
shift. Today. Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column
through the day as this trough axis passes. Thus we will expect a
mostly sunny to partly cloudy day. Weak warm air advection is in
play ahead of the trough and also due to the previously colder air
mass departing to the east. This will result in slightly higher
temperatures today. Look for highs in the lower to middle 40s.

Tonight...

The surface trough axis will have passed to the east. The trough
fails to make much progress south into the surface high across the
southeastern states, Meanwhile the other high pressure system over
the northern plains will dive southeast toward Indiana. Models
suggest these two systems re-organize into a larger and broad area
of high pressure that will stretch from the southeastern states to
the northern plains by late Wednesday Night. Forecast soundings
through the evening hours continue to show a dry column. Overnight,
the models suggest some high Pacific moisture arriving within the
quick flow aloft. Thus the evening should remain mostly clear while
skies become partly cloudy overnight. Minimal temperature advection
is in place tonight. Expect lows in the middle 20s.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

A slight cooldown is expected Wednesday as a cooler airmass settles
in behind a dry cold front associated moving through during the
short term period. A very dry airmass in the lower troposphere will
inhibit any precipitation, but moisture streaming in aloft should
lead to enhanced cloud cover early in the day. Upper level ridging
and surface high pressure will then build in with dry and mild
conditions likely through the extended. Increasing heights aloft
combined with surface flow becoming more southerly will help warm
temperatures well into the 40s. Some locations across the south are
expected to hit the 50F mark.

Upper troughing builds in over the weekend into early next week, but
limited gulf moisture return due to a developing system further
south will keep conditions mostly dry. Subtle moisture advection
and forcing may support a non-zero chance for an isolated light
shower. However, a dry airmass will likely still be present near
the surface so confidence is very low. Guidance shows a second
cold front moving in early next week potentially cooling
temperatures a few degrees. Precipitation looks unlikely with this
frontal passage as well due to limited moisture return across the
region.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 544 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions are expected

 Discussion:

A large area of high pressure southeast of Central Indiana will
continue to provide dry weather across the TAF sites this morning. A
weak cool front over WI and IA will pass across Central Indiana this
afternoon. Moisture along this front was nearly non-existent, with
no lower level clouds seen on GOES16. Behind this front, another
mild high pressure system of Pacific air. Forecast soundings
show a dry column today and tonight and subsidence is in place.
All of this will amount to dry weather and VFR conditions through
the TAF period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short Term...Puma
Long Term...Melo
Aviation...Puma

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
306 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-130815-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-
Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-
Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
306 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

  No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

  No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at:

http://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ind
http://www.weather.gov/ind

WFO IND