Drought in Illinois, December 12 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
438 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will provide tranquil weather through the end of
  the week with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

- The next potential for rain holds off until the middle of the
  weekend, but the risk still remains too low to include in the
  forecast at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 424 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

A rather uneventful synoptic setup to start off the week as a mid to
upper level trough provides slightly unseasonably cold temps. As a
1030 mb sfc high pressure builds east of the FA on Tuesday, brief
southwesterly return flow will cause temps to quickly moderate with
rising heights. However, another sfc high pressure will be quick to
move southeast from Alberta by Wednesday causing winds to shift
northeasterly with drier air. Despite the NAEFS ESAT indicating 30-
year return intervals for a 162 dm ridge at 850 mb Wednesday through
Friday, this will only translate to near to slightly above normal
temps as a 1040 mb sfc high pressure remains in control.

The main focus then becomes a 500 mb low that will eject across the
SW CONUS through the end of the week causing a broad area of sfc low
pressure to develop over the SE CONUS this weekend. 25% of GEFS
members and 40% of EPS members support measurable QPF (a tenth or
less) around the Saturday night timeframe with a 20-25% prob progged
by the NBM. However, this is only supported by 5-10% of NBM members
which keeps the PoPs silent in this forecast package. For now, will
maintain NBM's rain free forecast due to low confidence with a
progressive split flow. It will not be until Thursday when models
get a better sample of northern stream energy over land that will
have implications for the FA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 424 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

The northern terminals (KMVN-KEVV-KOWB) will experience a few
hours of mid level bases, even cigs, into early this evening,
as a 20-25 unit short wave of vorticy advects across the Wabash
Valley. Condensation pressure deficts drop to about 20 mb
within its path, supporting a few more hours of cloud as seen
by satellite. Otherwise, surface high pressure ridged across the
TN Valley will shift east over the next 24 hours, while a dry
cold front approaches from the north. The front makes OH Valley
passage tmrw pm/evening. Gridded time/height cross sections
suggest it may bring some SCT-BKN high level bases upon its
passage, with southwesterlies shifting more westerly late in the
planning period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
231 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
231 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 /331 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DW