Despite weak surface forcing, hot and humid conditions led to scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms developing by mid-afternoon on July 4th. While most of these storms were below severe limits, one instance of wind damage occurred in McLean County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
Despite weak surface forcing, hot and humid conditions led to scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms developing by mid-afternoon on July 4th. While most of these storms were below severe limits, one instance of wind damage occurred in McLean County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 2:26 PM CST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 There is a 20 percent chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, but most will stay dry. Warm and humid conditions will continue tonight, with lows staying up near 70 degrees tonight. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday, bringing better chances for showers and storms, including some severe storms. Wednesday will be hot and humid again, with highs near 70, then cooler weather will arrive behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 A warm and seasonably moist air mass today will be able to produce some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, characterized by weak bulk shear under 20 kts, and moderate instability 1500-2500 J/kg. These should taper off after sunset in the absence of significant forcing. It still looks as though most areas should remain dry, but some isolated 1 inch amounts could be possible with slow storm motion. Lows tonight look to dip only to the upper 60s given the moderately humid air mass. The frontal zone currently from Wisconsin into Nebraska will continue to edge southeastward overnight and Wednesday, likely reaching the Illinois River Valley during the afternoon. Moisture looks to pool in the frontal zone, nearing 2 inches of precipitable water/low 70s surface dewpoints as it reaching central IL, and producing 2000-2500 J/kg CAPE. Shear looks to be fairly modest, with only 20-30 kts sfc-6km shear, but likely sufficient for some severe storms with a damaging wind gust and isolated severe hail threat. SPC continues to outlook a slight risk for this activity from the Illinois River to the Indiana border, with a marginal risk to the west. Timing still looks somewhat uncertain as CAMs depict convective initiation ranging from noon to 4 pm, and frontal position varying by around 100 miles at 00Z Thursday. Nevertheless, precipitation looks to be likely given fairly widespread coverage developing from the Illinois River Valley eastward as the organizing feature (cold front) sweeps across the area by Thursday morning. By early Thursday morning, most of the precipitation should be done, if not late Wednesday evening, however a few should could continue into Thursday from around I-57 eastward. Highs should reach close to 90 degrees again Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler weather after Wednesday's cold front. Highs Thursday through the weekend should only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure will bring dry weather Friday, however a broad trough over the central US and periodic embedded disturbances could bring periodic showers and thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. 37 && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 Isolated TSRA will be possible until 01Z, however low coverage and uncertain timing at any given site precludes mention in 18Z TAFs. Winds S-SE 5-10 kts through the period. 37 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 335 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 ILZ029>031-037-038-041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-052045- Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt- Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian- Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham- Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 335 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through sunset. No severe weather is expected though a few stronger cells could produce gusty winds and brief heavy rains. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk of severe storms, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms storms are expected Thursday afternoon. Those are not expected to become severe. Thunderstorms are possible again from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. ILZ027-028-036-040-052045- Knox-Stark-Fulton-Schuyler- 335 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through sunset. No severe weather is expected though a few stronger cells could produce gusty winds and brief heavy rains. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There is a level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk of severe storms, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. Bumgardner
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:49 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree branch was blown down, and crushed a ham radio tower as it fell. The report was relayed by broadcast media.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1109839.