A well advertised storm system brough a mix of precipitation across all of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri on February 22nd. Precipitation began as rain during the early morning, but quickly changed to a mix of sleet and freezing rain as it progressed north over areas along and north of Interstate 80.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
A well advertised storm system brough a mix of precipitation across all of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri on February 22nd. Precipitation began as rain during the early morning, but quickly changed to a mix of sleet and freezing rain as it progressed north over areas along and north of Interstate 80. This precipitation continued throughout the day before tapering off during the mid to late evening hours.
Given the amount of moisture associated with this system, rain and ice amounts were high. Rainfall totals of around 1.00 - 1.50 were observed along and east of the Mississippi River. Ice amounts of a few hundredths up to three tenths of an inch were observed, with the latter mainly along and north of the Highway 30 corridor. This ice led to slippery travel conditions and power outages.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 11:52 AM CST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1152 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Overall quiet conditions were observed across the area, which
won't last long! A few weak thunderstorms were seen on radar, with
even a few lightning strikes seen earlier with some of the
convection. Overcast skies were seen elsewhere, except for a small
pocket of clear skies over our far northeastern Iowa counties.
There was also quite a difference in temperature, with 09z/3 AM
temps in the upper 20s north to the lower 40s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Key Message...
1) Our well-advertised messy mid-week system will gradually move
into the region this morning, bringing a plethora of precipitation
types across our northern areas
Precipitation will gradually spread across the region later this
morning, and become more widespread this afternoon. This is all part
of an upper-level shortwave trough that will translate northeastward
from western TX, bringing an influx of Gulf moisture to our region.
As we've been messaging, there will be a range of precipitation
types, especially across our north, where freezing rain, sleet, and
some light snow will be possible. The biggest concern continues to
be on significant icing potential largely across the northern two
tiers of our forecast area. Additionally, PWat values are progged to
range between 1 to 1.3", which should support periods of heavy
rainfall across our southeastern portions of the area. If that
weren't enough, there is even a low chance for a strong to severe
storm across our southern areas. Let's break it all down below:
*WINTRY MIX
The main focus for this event will be on the wintry mix potential
across the northern half of the area. For days, the ensemble
guidance has been suggesting at least a likely possibility for
greater than 0.1 inch of total icing, and the high-resolution
ensembles (which are now encompassing this entire event), are now
suggesting significant icing amounts. As I mentioned yesterday,
surface temperatures, along with dew point temperatures, will play a
significant role in the freezing rain potential, along with the
depth of the near surface cold layer, which would determine the
degree of sleet potential. The biggest change with this forecast
package is that the high-resolution ensembles are suggesting a shift
southward in the colder surface temperatures and dew points, which
has brought the icing potential southward, and increased the icing
amounts farther north. If things pan out as they are depicted in our
forecast, we may be looking at some significant impacts, with
forecast icing now between 0.25" up to 0.60" of total ice accretion.
Thus, we have adjusted headlines to include a tier of counties to
the south in the Ice Storm Warning. At this time, the southern
extent of the icing, which tapers off quickly from north to south,
appears to be no further south than I-80, but we will need to keep
an eye on the latest models as they may shift, similar to what they
just did for this forecast package. Additionally, the onset of the
wintry mix should be a little earlier than anticipated, so starting
all headlines at 12z/6 AM this morning. Severe impacts to the
Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes will be likely.
*HEAVY RAINFALL
With the influx of Gulf moisture and anomalously high PWat and water
vapor transport on a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, total rainfall
amounts across our south could range between 1 to 1.5 inches. The
Weather Prediction Center continues to outlook us in a slight risk
for excessive rainfall from far northeast Missouri, extreme
southeastern Iowa, into west-central Illinois and points southeast.
Within bank rises are expected on local rivers and tributaries,
along with ponding of water on roadways.
*ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
The Storm Prediction Center continues to have our far southern areas
within a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5 chance) for a strong to severe
storm. This is primarily anchored over a sharp thermal gradient
along a warm frontal zone. The most likely timing of this activity
looks to be in the early afternoon hours between noon and 4 PM, with
the main hazard being damaging wind gusts.
*STRONG WINDS (NOT FROM THUNDERSTORMS)
To top off this entire event, we also continue to have the potential
for strong wind gusts with this system, and coupled with the icing
across our northern areas, this is likely to lead to sporadic power
outages and tree damage. East-northeast winds are expected to gust
between 30 to 40 mph along and north of Highway 30 today, with
additional wind gusts for Thursday, although they should be around
25 to 35 mph. Some gusts today could even reach to 45 mph in
isolated spots. Again, these winds, along with the icing today and
tonight, may even cause some disruptions to infrastructure if the
icing amounts come to fruition.
Keep up with the latest forecasts throughout the day as things may
still change in terms of the icing coverage and magnitude. If you
are in the Ice Storm Warning, travel is strongly discouraged! If you
must travel, it's best to keep some extra food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
[Key Messages]
1) Quiet weather to end the work week with much cooler temperatures
2) Chance of snow Friday night
3) Temperatures warm through the weekend into next week
4) Another system arrives Sunday night and Monday with potential for
heavy rain
[Discussion]
Thursday and Friday...
Low pressure looks to be analyzed just to the south and east of our
area to start the long term period, with some precip in the form of
rain/snow lingering for areas along and north of Hwy 20. This will
exit the area Thursday afternoon, leaving us with a mix of clouds
and sunshine for the remainder of the day. Areas south of Interstate
80 are favored for more of the later.
It will remain breezy out of the west through the remainder of the
daytime Thursday with gusts around 25-35 MPH. These winds will
subside Thursday night with winds shifting to the northeast Friday.
Much colder air will follow for Friday with high pressure passing
just to our north over the upper Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures will be well below normal thanks to the northeasterly
flow and clouds, with highs for most only in the 20s. Some in
northeast Iowa may even struggle to see 20.
Friday Night...
Depending on the model, there is a signal for a weak clipper to
impact all of the area Friday evening and overnight. Precip would be
all snow with potential for amounts of a few tenths to near an inch.
The GFS and GEFS are the most aggressive on the clipper impacting our
area, with the CMC and ECMWF focusing more of the snow potential
further north.
Saturday through daytime Sunday...
A dry weekend is favored with high pressure quickly passing by the
departing clipper. The primary sensible weather concern will be
temperatures as strengthening southerly flow helps us recover from
our below normal temperatures Friday. Look for highs Saturday and
Sunday to rebound back into the 40s and even 50s (especially
Sunday). Skies will feature a mix of clouds and sunshine.
Sunday Night through Monday...
Next system arrives across the area Sunday night and lasts through
daytime Monday. Rather potent shortwave over the Four Corners Sunday
morning will strengthen and become negatively tiled as it traverses
the Southern Plains during the daytime. Robust cyclogensis will
occur in the Central Plains with a surface low rapidly developing
over eastern Colorado Sunday morning, with a track favored over the
Midwest Sunday night and Monday. Very strong 50-70 kt LLJ will
develop ahead of the low track, all but ensuring ample lift and
moisture will be in place over the area. Anomalously high Gulf PWAT
feed of around 1.30" (well above the climatological max for the day)
will ensure rainfall amounts will be over an inch, potentially much
higher where the deformation zone tracks. Stay tuned for this
period, especially those with interests along area rivers.
Monday night...
A bit of uncertainty in the forecast pas next Monday as models
disagree with the flow across the area. Will stick with the NBM POPs
this far out, which currently show a slight chance of rain/snow with
potential for another clipper to impact the area Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
IFR/low MVFR cigs through this taf cycle.
A winter storm will bring freezing rain and sleet north of
Interstate 80, with rain to the south. The pcpn will gradually end
tonight. Northeast winds will be gusting to 30 kts into this
evening then diminishing. As the low pressure system tracks to
our north then west winds on Thursday will gust to 40 kts.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for Benton-Buchanan-
Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones-Linn.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for Cedar-
Clinton-Iowa-Johnson-Scott.
IL...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for Jo Daviess-
Stephenson.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for Carroll-
Whiteside.
MO...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Schultz
SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...HaaseHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 842 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-231445- Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson- Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson- Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll- Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson- Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark- 842 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A strong storm system will move through the region today and tonight, bringing a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the northern portions of the area. An Ice Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. Please see these products for more details. Gusty northeast winds today and tonight up to 45 mph, along with the icing from the wintry mix, could result in sporadic tree damage and power outages. There is also a risk for rainfall over 1 inch, and non severe thunderstorms today in far eastern Iowa, western Illinois, and northeast Missouri. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A wet system will bring heavy rainfall to the region late Sunday through Monday. Rainfall amounts over 1 inch will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of ice accumulation today and tonight will be appreciated. ERVIN/JTS/PS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
938 AM CST WED FEB 22 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM FREEZING RAIN MILLEDGEVILLE 41.97N 89.78W
02/22/2023 U0.00 INCH CARROLL IL TRAINED SPOTTER
A LIGHT ICE GLAZE ON THE DRIVEWAY.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Freezing rain accumulated to 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch, mainly on elevated surfaces.
Freezing rain accumulated to 0.25 to 0.5 of an inch, mainly on elevated surfaces.
Freezing rain accumulated to 0.25 to 0.5 of an inch, mainly on elevated surfaces.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1080634, 1080633, 1080635.