A small complex of severe thunderstorms moved southeast across the mid-Mississippi Valley and across parts of southern Illinois during the early morning hours. The storms developed in association with a mesoscale convective vorticity center moving across Missouri.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A small complex of severe thunderstorms moved southeast across the mid-Mississippi Valley and across parts of southern Illinois during the early morning hours. The storms developed in association with a mesoscale convective vorticity center moving across Missouri. Isolated damaging winds accompanied the strongest storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 10:21 PM CST, 4 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1121 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Models suggest a wind down in absolute convective activity in the near term, but lingering storms or any redeveloping ones still work within a high PW air mass, so locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out at any time from any storm into the weekend. The primary axis of recent heavy rainfall should continue its southward/westward drift, and could reinitiate this evening/tonight, before spreading slowly eastward again overnight. In sum, we'll have to watch the vort energy modeled to migrate across northern MO later today-tonight, but believe it will stay far enough north and west of us with its organization that our plan is to continue carrying our scattered pops west, to more isolated/widely scattered mention east...while keeping one eye upon strong storm potential over SEMO/i.e. closer to that energy field. In addition for tomorrow, the hot/sticky airmass in place might yield some HI's 100-105, particularly in the heart of it over SEMO/nearby locales, with the only relief offered coming from the lingering of those aforementioned scattered storm chances. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 Things get more dicey heading into the back half of the weekend. A well advertised wave will drop out of the High Plains and take shape as it sharpens a negatively tilted trof into across the MO/MS valleys. The very warm/soupy/charged airmass in place here will be encountered by the cold front it drives into/across the FA late Sunday into Sunday night. All modes severe are possible with particular emphasis on hail/wind along and ahead of the linear/frontal portion of the system encountered here, better helicity being nearer the track of the surface cyclone to the north. Heavy rainers will be contended with again but the progression of the system should bare better in and out movement overtop our recently wetted grounds. Still, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, esp if there are any repeat storms. In the wake of this system, we'll enjoy a cooling and drying air mass, at least for a couple days (Mon-Tue). Highs dropping into the lower half of the 80s will feel even better with dew points falling back into the 60s. Warmer temps, higher humidity, and pops, transition back into the forecast for the latter half of the week. 80s climb back toward 90F and dew points return to the 70s. There's been some model consistency suggesting another wave's approach/potential passage might offer better/more organized storm chances/storm strength on/by Thursday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 No major changes to the TAFs tonight as the forecast remains on track. Have included TEMPO groups through Saturday morning to address scattered pcpn and BCFG that will develop overnight. Guidance is indicating some uncertainty in the evolution of convection, but do feel it will be more scattered and shorter duration compared to the previous mornings. There is the potential for additional convection to develop Saturday evening, but confidence is too low to include TAF mention at this time. Light and variable winds tonight will increase to around 5 to 10 kts out of the SSE to SSW on Saturday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DW AVIATION...DW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 1159 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-051000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 1159 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 /1259 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A strong to potentially severe storm cannot be ruled out, mainly over southeast Missouri. Wind and hail would be the primary severe weather hazards, should one occur. Lightning and heavy rain are more commonplace hazards, and due to all the recent heavy rain, localized flood issues may occur or be aggravated. Continue to heed any river flood or flood warnings remaining in effect. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A chance of storms continues through the weekend. The best chance will be along and ahead of a cold front later Sunday into Sunday night. Severe storms with a damaging wind and large hail threat will be possible Sunday. Otherwise, locally heavy rainfall and lightning can be expected. A chance of thunderstorms returns to the forecast again Wednesday and Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning are the primary anticipated hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to stay abreast of the latest forecasts and updates in case their activation is needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
323 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
ILZ084-085-088-MOZ087-050915-
Jackson IL-Union IL-Williamson IL-Cape Girardeau MO-
323 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Union, southwestern
Williamson, southeastern Jackson and northeastern Cape Girardeau
Counties through 415 AM CDT...
At 322 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Murphysboro to near Grand Tower to near
Jackson. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Carbondale around 325 AM CDT.
Trail Of Tears State Park around 330 AM CDT.
Cedar Lake Area around 335 AM CDT.
Cobden and Ware around 340 AM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Anna, Jonesboro
and Dongola.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 22 and 37.
Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 109 and 110.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3768 8900 3733 8915 3734 8948 3748 8968
3758 8955 3756 8953 3758 8952 3758 8949
3759 8948 3762 8950 3781 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 0822Z 311DEG 24KT 3773 8932 3757 8944 3743 8962
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RSTThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:40 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree limb was down just north of Alto Pass. A tree was blown onto a police car just east of Anna.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1117011.