Flood and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 5, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1156 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Key Points:

* A Few Storms Possible Tonight

* Storms Likely Saturday Evening/Night, Some Possibly Severe

* Cooler Temperatures Arrive Sunday

* Sporadic Storm Chances into Next Week

This evening through Monday night...

As of 345 PM Friday afternoon, quasi-zonal midlevel flow was present
across the central Plains. A remnant MCV was moving along the IA/MO
border with a band of showers/storms across northern MO. Closer to
home, a surface trough axis has bypassed much of the forecast area
and now resides from central OK through southwest MO and into
northeast IA. Latest satellite and radar reveal developing storms
across the High Plains of northeast CO and southeast WY. These
are forecast to grow upscale and progress east/southeast through
the evening. Increasing inhibition with southeastward extent,
especially into portions of central KS lends low confidence for
storms reaching the area. A second area of storms is possible
overnight, mainly along the OK border. Increasing WAA between
850-700mb along the aforementioned surface trough axis may support
MCS maintenance for any upscale growth from any storms able to
develop across southeast CO. Additional, isolated convection is
possible ahead of any line tonight along the OK border.
Regardless, the strongest storms will be capable of wind gusts up
to 60 mph and hail up to nickel size.

Transitioning into the daytime hours Saturday, a potentially complex
weather pattern will emerge by midday. Model guidance suggests
the potential for an MCV to be present across forecast area by
midday. As mixed-layer inhibition weakens, a few storms may
develop by early afternoon. Regardless if storms develop or not,
remnant cloud debris associated with the MCV may keep temperatures
cooler and thus mitigating the threat for excessive heat. Short
term trends will need to monitored, especially for southeast KS,
where heat index values may approach 100-105 if cloud debris
doesn't emerge.

By Saturday, a stronger midlevel shortwave trough is poised to
emerge from the northern Rockies with a secondary surface trough
axis extending into northwest KS and eastern CO by mid-afternoon.
Scattered storms are likely to develop along the frontal zone and
grow upscale through the afternoon/evening. This complex is expected
to move across the forecast area during the late evening and
nighttime hours. Damaging winds up to 60 mph will be the chief
concern.

A quiet day is expected for Sunday as surface ridging noses into the
area with increasing midlevel heights. Afternoon temperatures will
top out in the 80s for most areas. The quiet stretch will continue
into Monday with midlevel shortwave ridging and surface ridging
across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Transitioning into the extended period, quasi-zonal midlevel flow
will persist through much of the week with weak perturbations likely
to eject across the Plains. This will result in small rain chances
nearly each day. Temperatures will remain seasonal through much of
the week in the 80s and 90s. Temperatures will begin to increase by
weeks-end as the midlevel ridge axis expands across the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Main aviation concern will remain storm chances late tonight into
Sat morning.

Storms have continued to develop over the High Plains and track
east this evening, generally in an area of 700mb theta-e
advection. Some of this activity should start to impact our
western fringes generally after 09z and will linger into the Sat
morning. So for now will run with VCTS at all sites with the
exception of KCNU through around 15-16z. Wouldn't be shocked if we
maintain a mid level deck with pockets of showers and iso storms
through much of Sat morning and possibly into early afternoon as
mid level baroclinic zone remains in place. We should see a more
robust round of storms Sat night across southern KS, but this
activity should be after 06z Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  94  69  89 /  20  50  70  10
Hutchinson      70  93  68  89 /  30  50  70   0
Newton          70  94  68  87 /  20  50  70  10
ElDorado        71  93  69  87 /  20  50  70  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  94  69  89 /  20  50  70  10
Russell         68  93  65  86 /  30  50  60   0
Great Bend      69  93  65  86 /  30  50  60   0
Salina          70  94  68  88 /  20  50  60  10
McPherson       69  94  66  87 /  20  50  70  10
Coffeyville     74  95  70  89 /  20  40  70  20
Chanute         72  93  70  89 /  20  40  70  20
Iola            71  93  69  87 /  20  40  70  20
Parsons-KPPF    73  95  70  89 /  20  40  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BMB
LONG TERM...BMB
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
836 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-052115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
836 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight with the best
chances along the Oklahoma border. The strongest storms will be
capable of wind gusts up to 60 mph and nickel size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat indices of 100 to 105 will be possible across southern Kansas
on Saturday afternoon.

Another round of strong to severe storms will arrive late Saturday
to much of the area. Locally heavy rain and damaging winds appear
to the be the main threats at this time.

Hit or miss showers and storms may linger across the area into
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict