A wildfire began from lightning approximately three miles into the South San Juan Wilderness, 13 miles northeast of Pagosa Springs, Colorado.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A wildfire began from lightning approximately three miles into the South San Juan Wilderness, 13 miles northeast of Pagosa Springs, Colorado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 5, 4:48 AM MST, 4 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 548 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 548 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 The 06Z NAMNest has finally caught up on the coverage of showers and a few embedded storms going on across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado early this morning. This line will slowly move east before largely dissipating around mid to late morning across the west-central Colorado mountains. As a result, went ahead and did a quick PoP update accounting for the latest trends. Due to the increase in cloud cover, temperatures have been a bit milder than anticipated across the north. Therefore, adjusted this morning's lows by a few degrees. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 CAM guidance has done a pretty awful job at anticipating the coverage of tonight's continued convection across northeast Utah as well as some west-central Colorado mountains, resulting in the need for several short-term PoP updates. These nocturnal showers and embedded storms are the result of a weak wave nudging into our northern zones. Elsewhere remains under the influence of the ridge of high pressure to our south, as it continues to be shunted farther west through the short term. In response, dry and warm conditions will persist. Additionally, the subtropical jet is still on track to round the periphery of the ridge this weekend, aiding in the advection of dry air. PWATs will plummet to between 60 to 80% of normal this afternoon for areas south of the I-70 corridor before dropping even more to 30 to 60% of normal Sunday afternoon. The Four Corners region in particular looks to reach 10 to 20% of normal! These abnormally dry conditions will see humidities drop into the single digits to mid teens as temperatures continue to climb to slightly above normal. Deep mixing under the jet will result in breezy conditions as the westerly gradient tightens aloft, producing gusts in excess of 20 mph at the surface. Therefore, the potential for at least localized critical fire weather conditions remains a concern for the southern tier of the forecast area today and tomorrow. The one caveat is 700 mb winds only look to reach 20 to 25 kts today while increasing marginally tomorrow. An uptick to 30 to 35 kts looks to occur tomorrow night, the period when humidities will climb above critical thresholds. Hesitation also stems from the fact that even the 90th percentile gusts are borderline for highlights, as well as the probability of those stronger winds occurring remains generally less than 40 percent. Therefore, have opted not to issue any fire weather highlights at this time for either today or tomorrow though, once again, at least localized conditions are expected. The jet's presence will also put northeast Utah and northwest Colorado in the left exit region and, since PWATs remain right around normal for these areas, another round of at least isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop by midday. Convection will be short-lived, producing some stronger outflow gusts of 40 to 45 mph. Brief moderate rain can't be ruled out, but the influence of some drier air at the surface will minimize the potential greatly. Mostly quiet conditions are expected overnight across the north as the majority of showers diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. The exception looks to be the northwest Colorado mountains where some stray showers will linger into Sunday morning. As the center of the ridge settles over southern New Mexico and Arizona on Sunday, its axis will be able to amplify farther north. Therefore, the aforementioned drier airmass will reach areas north of I-70, dropping PWATs to slightly below normal. Storm coverage will decrease as a result, though residual moisture paired with orographics will fuel diurnally-driven convection over the northern Colorado mountains. There is better confidence for any lingering showers and storms to end after sunset for Sunday night, resulting in benign conditions. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Troughing across both the Pacific Northwest and the eastern CONUS will continue on Monday. This will keep the subtropical high centered over the Desert Southwest. An embedded wave tracking through the Northern Rockies Monday afternoon will lead to increased clouds across the northern zones with a slight uptick in storm coverage. Some clouds will trickle down to the I-70 corridor as well, allowing humidities to climb marginally. Southeast Utah and southwest Colorado will remain plenty dry with another round of single digit to low teen humidities expected. While the core of the jet will depart to the east, deep mixing will continue as the gradient aloft tightens ahead of the Pacific trough. Therefore, another breezy day is on tap for the Four Corners resulting in at least localized critical fire weather conditions. Coverage and duration of gusts greater than 25 mph looks better for Monday, so the need for fire weather highlights will continue to be monitored. Tuesday looks to be the start of a transition synoptically speaking as the Pacific trough nudges farther inland across the West Coast, slowly ushering the subtropical high back to the east. Yet another weak wiggle in the flow will quickly clip northwest Colorado, helping tighten our gradient overhead a bit more. Critical fire weather conditions once again look likely as PWATs remain below normal, apart from areas along the Wyoming border which will stay near to even slightly above normal due to the wave. Therefore, isolated afternoon storms can be expected. Flow aloft will shift to the northwest on Wednesday as we reach the outer periphery of the high as its center continues to drift east. Not much significant moisture advection is anticipated during this change, but there will be an uptick in at least high clouds area-wide. Unfortunately, minimum humidities look to remain at critical thresholds across much of the region Wednesday afternoon. Extended guidance projects a weak trough will build off the coast of southern California late in the week, shifting the high into a more favorable position to allow some subtropical moisture to creep back into the region. Cluster ensembles keep this trough, and the ridge, relatively stationary as broad troughing continues to dominate the eastern states. So, while not a potent push of moisture, it looks promising to at least bring some slight relief to our abnormally dry weather. Overall, temperatures will trend a few degrees above normal for our southern and central zones through the period with some pockets of near to slightly below normal anticipated across the north. If the uptick in moisture arrives late in the week, some slight moderation of highs will follow suit. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 548 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 The 06Z NAMNest has finally caught up on the coverage of showers and a few embedded storms across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado early this morning. This line will slowly move east before largely dissipating around mid to late morning. Showers and storms will redevelop across the north, favoring the higher terrain, after 18Z and continuing into the early evening hours. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the main threats so VFR should prevail. TAF sites do not look to be directly impacted at this time but sites such as KHDN, KVEL, and KEGE could see storms in the vicinity. Elsewhere will remain dry and breezy with gusts of 20 to 25 kts expected. While some light showers will once again linger across the north tonight, overall dry weather will prevail into Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 As dry air returns to southern portions of the area, and deeper mixing brings some gusty winds to the surface, critical fire weather conditions move back into the picture. Today, models continue to highlight some localized critical fire conditions for our southern fire zones but as they will be localized, no fire weather products appear needed. While breezy conditions will persist on Sunday, hesitation remains on how widespread gusts of 25 mph or greater will be. Even the latest 90th percentile guidance keeps things borderline. Regardless, at least localized critical fire weather conditions will develop across the southern zones and we'll see how this afternoon's guidance plays out regarding those stronger winds. Warm, dry and breezy weather will continue early next week across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado so please continue to monitor the forecast for any potential fire weather highlights. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && UPDATE...MMS SHORT TERM...MMS LONG TERM...MMS AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 315 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-061500- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 315 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the north this afternoon and early evening, favoring the higher terrain. Gusty winds will be the main threat with any storms in addition to brief moderate rain. Elsewhere, dry and breezy weather will prevail as temperatures continue to climb. Localized critical fire weather conditions will be possible across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Dry and breezy weather will prevail across the southern tier of the forecast area through early next week. As temperatures continue to climb and humidities drop, critical fire weather conditions will be a concern, particularly across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. Weak systems brushing the northern zones will result in the potential for isolated storms over the higher terrain each afternoon. Some moisture looks to slowly trickle into the area mid to late next week but, overall, dry weather will prevail for most locations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Quartz Ridge Fire started in early August from lightning in the South San Juan Wilderness, 13 miles northeast of Pagosa Springs, Colorado. The fire grew to 2,850 acres before it was contained in late November.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1142188.