Radar indicated heavy rain across portions of Maui County through the early morning hours. The most intense rain fell over the Wailuku and Waikapu areas with rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour over saturated ground.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS HFO wrote it up.
Radar indicated heavy rain across portions of Maui County through the early morning hours. The most intense rain fell over the Wailuku and Waikapu areas with rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour over saturated ground. The Maalaea area of south Maui and the Honoapiilani Highway from Maalaea to Lahaina were the most vulnerable to flooding impacts, as well poor drainage areas in Wailuku and Kahului. The Honopou Stream gage on the windward Haleakala slopes also showed rapid increase in water levels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Honolulu, HI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 28, 8:41 PM HST, 3 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 841 PM HST Sat Jan 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough over Maui County this evening will continue to slowly drift westward through Monday combining forces with a deepening upper level trough that will deepen and enhance shower activity across the state through Monday. Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms currently developing along the trough over Maui County will expand slowly westward into Oahu and Kauai by Sunday afternoon. Breezy northeast trade winds over the western islands will tend to enhance rainfall amounts over north and east slopes of Kauai and Oahu. The Big Island will also see increasing shower activity as deeper tropical moisture moves into the region. Wet weather conditions will begin to improve from Monday night through Tuesday as the upper low and surface trough drift slowly westward away from the Hawaiian Islands. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery this evening shows a large band of enhanced showers and thunderstorms lingering over Maui County, extending northeastward to waters north of the Big Island and southwestward over waters south of Oahu and Kauai. Shower activity is starting to spread westward into Oahu, however local radar imagery shows the heavier showers remain near a surface trough currently over Molokai and Maui. These shower trends, heavy at times, are expected to increase over Oahu by Sunday morning and into Kauai County by late Sunday afternoon as an upper trough deepens into an upper level low just west of the state. A combination of a slow westward moving surface trough, a deepening upper level low and breezy northeast trade winds over the western half of the state will shift the focus of heavy rainfall westward on Sunday to the islands of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu. However, additional tropical moisture moving up from the south, as the upper low deepens to the west, will likely keep the islands in Maui and Hawaii Counties under a continued threat for periods of heavy rain and flooding lingering into Monday. A Flood Watch (FFA) remains in effect for all islands except Kauai County. This FFA will likely be expanded in coverage to include Kauai County and extended in time through Monday across Maui and Hawaii Counties. Deep moisture over the Big Island has already produced snow and freezing rain to the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa this afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for both Big Island Summits through Sunday. Additional wintery weather and snow accumulations are expected to continue above the 12,000 foot elevation level into Monday. Medium range forecast guidance continues to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday as the surface trough and upper low will continue to weaken and drift westward away from the state. These pattern changes will produce a significant improvement in decreasing rainfall trends for all islands on Tuesday. Wind speeds will also weaken as a cold front passing north of the state weakens the ridge. A high pressure system north of the islands will build in from the west on Thursday and Friday producing moderate to breezy northeast trade winds, increasing windward shower trends, and cooling temperatures statewide. && .AVIATION... A surface trough over the central islands will act as a focal point for convective activity through Sunday. The air mass along and to the east of the trough is well saturated and moderately unstable. The air mass to the west of the trough is markedly drier and more stable. This evening, radar imagery shows that the heaviest precipitation is occurring across Molokai and Maui. The islands of Maui County will continue to receive the bulk of the wet weather overnight, though showers across windward Oahu and northern sections of the Big Island remain possible as well. Prevailing MVFR conditions and light to moderate showers can be expected to prevail at most locations, though isolated IFR conditions within heavier showers will be possible through the night and into the day on Sunday. With ample instability over the islands, isolated thunderstorms are possible through Sunday night from Oahu through Big Island, and could expand to include Kauai by Sunday afternoon as well. This evening, SIGMET X-Ray for embedded thunderstorms includes the central islands and extends across adjacent waters to the northeast and southwest. Numerous PIREPs of moderate mid-level and upper level turbulence have been received within this area throughout the afternoon and early evening. As a reminder, a convective SIGMET implies that lightning, severe turbulence, icing, and low-level wind shear are all possible within the warned area. AIRMET Tango also remains in effect from Oahu through the Big Island for moderate mid and upper level turbulence to account for areas not included within the SIGMET. As surface winds increase through Sunday from Kauai to Oahu, an AIRMET Tango may be needed for moderate low-level turbulence as well. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for Maui, Molokai, and Oahu. Conditions will likely persist through the next 24 hours and beyond. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration on the Big Island remains in effect this evening, though this should diminish over the next couple of hours. Finally, tempo light icing will remain possible over much of the state with thick cloud cover in place. && .MARINE... A trough over the eastern end of the state will continue to bring rain along with the chance for thunderstorms over the coastal and offshore waters through at least Monday. Thunderstorm potential remains over the offshore waters through Wednesday. The trough is expected to slowly drift to the west over the next couple of days. A surface high pressure to the northwest of the state will drift to the south through Sunday. The tight pressure gradient between the high and the trough is resulting in an uptick in winds over the western waters, with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds over the coastal waters near Kauai and Oahu. Winds will be a touch higher over the adjacent offshore waters. Coastal water winds should begin to decrease on Monday as the trough moves over the western end islands. A new moderate, long-period northwest swell (310 degrees) reached buoy 51001 around 6pm, and is expected to reach Kauai by 2am. Buoy 51001 reported 3 feet 19 seconds, which is in line with the GFS wave data, and a couple feet below the NWPS guidance. The forecast has been trended down towards the GFS solution. As this swell moves into the coastal waters, exposed seas are expected to rise above the SCA 10 foot criteria. These 10 foot seas are expected to remain over the coastal waters into Tuesday. In addition, moderate overlapping north swells (340 to 040 degrees) will move through the coastal waters through the first half of the week. As the new northwest swell arrives, this will help to boost surf to low-end advisory levels along most north and west facing shores later Sunday into Monday, before subsiding Tuesday through the rest of the week. Will continue to monitor the swell's arrival at the buoys to the northwest tonight to determine if a High Surf Advisory will be warranted or not. Surf along east facing shores will become rough over the next couple of day with the local wind swell mixes with some wrap from the north swells. Meanwhile, surf along south facing shores will remain small through Sunday, then pick up a bit Monday into Tuesday as a small, long-period south swell (190 degrees) fills in. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Oahu Molokai Lanai Maui Kahoolawe and the Big Island. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel. && DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...Vaughan MARINE...M Ballard
The Molokai radar (PHMO), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:40 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Makawao Avenue was closed at Maliko Gulch between Kee Road and Kokomo Road.
South Kihei Road was closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Hawaii in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Hawaii, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1072840, 1072847.