Drought in Hawaii, August 1 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
835 PM HST Mon Jul 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally breezy trade winds will continue through the week. Expect
limited windward showers, mainly during the overnight and early
morning hours. Leeward areas will stay mostly dry with the exception
of a few afternoon and evening showers on the Big Island's Kona
slopes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A seasonable, stable and breezy trade wind flow will persist. Strong
high pressure centered far N of the islands will split into two
centers over the next several days as weak low pressure systems pass
between them, but the local pressure gradient will remain relatively
unchanged through the week. Any decrease in wind speed during the
second half of the week will be subtle. A mid-level ridge parked
overhead is producing stable conditions with an inversion holding
between 5,000 to 8,000 ft. With precipitable water hovering near to
below seasonal average, expect limited rainfall to be confined to
windward slopes, and with the exception of afternoon clouds and
showers over the Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas will
be dry.

Only minor changes to the rainfall pattern are due as random pockets
of shallow moisture move through. An upper level trough digging
southward toward the islands could coincide with an increase in PWAT
this weekend, bringing the potential for an uptick in rainfall,
mainly windward.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure well north of the islands will maintain moderate to
locally breezy trade winds for the next several days. AIRMET Tango
remains posted for mountain lee turbulence that will likely continue
beyond the next 24 hours.

Clouds and showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas,
especially during the overnight and early morning hours. Expect
mainly VFR conditions, with brief MVFR cigs and vsbys under passing
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the far north of the islands continues to produce
fresh to locally strong trade winds over the region, which are
expected to continue into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in effect for the typical windier waters near Maui County
and the Big Island. The SCA currently is in effect through Wednesday
afternoon, but it will likely be extended with no significant change
in the winds expected during the second half of the week.

These trade winds will continue to product rough and choppy surf
along east facing shores into the weekend. South facing shores are
seeing a bump as a long period southwest (210-220 degree) swell
arrives in the islands. This swell is expected to peak Tuesday, and
then subside through Friday. Models suggest another long period
swell (220 degree) will arrive late in the weekend.

Statewide water levels continue to be running higher than predicted
(0.3 to 0.6 ft), and when combined with some of the highest tides of
the year, minor coastal flooding is expected.
Minor coastal flooding is expected in the typical vulnerable low
lying coastal areas and beaches during the peak high tides during
the afternoon hours through Wednesday. Please refer to the latest
Coastal Flood Statement (CFWHFO) for more details.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...Birchard
AVIATION...Ahue
MARINE...M Ballard