The presence of onshore flow enhanced by the sea breeze, elevated swell energy, and breaking wave heights of 2-3 feet combined to produce an enhanced risk of rip currents along the southeast Georgia coast.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CHS wrote it up.
The presence of onshore flow enhanced by the sea breeze, elevated swell energy, and breaking wave heights of 2-3 feet combined to produce an enhanced risk of rip currents along the southeast Georgia coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 2:47 PM EST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 347 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will persist inland this weekend, while Atlantic high pressure holds offshore through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... At the surface, the region lies on the western periphery of Bermuda high pressure and a weak trough well inland. Aloft, a mid-level trough to the north will scrape the northern forecast area with its shortwave energy staying out of the area. Models have been resolving the current vort max within the mid level trough seen on mid-level water vapor imagery across eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia fairly well. This disturbance along with its associated ongoing convection centered across the Midlands is expected to lift northeast this evening. The afternoon sea breeze circulation has yet to foster any convection, however, as outflow from ongoing convection moving east northeast reaches the sea breeze boundary there could be some development, likely spawning around the I-95 corridor. This is where the greatest pops are located. The NAM hints at a secondary mid-level shortwave digging into central GA and lifting north into the Charleston Tri-County overnight, as well as a weak cold front approaching in the wake of the trough. This could produce another round of isolated to scattered convection, but with less instability it seems models struggle to maintain convection through the entire night. Therefore we have POPs trending downward overnight, with slight chance in place until just before sunrise when we expect to see coverage completely diminishing, outside the offshore waters. Mostly cloudy skies will make for another mild night with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sunday: The early part of the week will offer a slow transition into a less favorable pattern for diurnal convection as subtropical ridging begins to build across the Deep South and Southeast States. While some broad troughing will linger through the day Sunday, both heights and mid-level temperatures will begin to rise. One final piece of weak, channeled vorticity is progged to cross the Georgia coast during the afternoon as a weak sea breeze circulation treks inland. There may be just enough mean instability and forcing with the impulse aloft to produced scattered to possibly numerous showers/tstms by late afternoon/early evening with model soundings yielding modest mid-layer instability. 40-60% pop look reasonable during this time, highest roughly along and south of I-16 and up into the Hilton Head and Beaufort, SC, areas where forcing with the passing impulse will be the strongest. Convection will slowly wane during the evening hours with the low-level focus shifting into the coastal waters overnight, especially near the west wall of the Gulf Stream. Gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning will be the primary hazards. Highs will warm into the lower 90s away from the beaches with dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s inland, pooling to the mid-upper 70s at the coast near the sea breeze. Heat indices will range from 100-105 inland to 105-110 at the coast. Lows will range from the lower-mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Monday: Models have trended slightly deeper with a passing shortwave Monday into Tuesday morning before subtropical ridging really begins to take hold. A weak cold front is forecast to stall across central Georgia into the South Carolina Midlands during this time with a weak frontal wave developing near KAGS by Monday afternoon. Although the front will be nearby, vertical cross sections show a deep west to northwest flow dominating aloft which will help delay the inland push of the afternoon sea breeze and help mix out quit a bit of low- level moisture, especially inland. In fact, dewpoints are progged to drop into the mid-upper 60s across the interior, but hold in the mid- upper 70s at the coast as the sea breeze meanders off the beaches. Given the large moisture gradient noted, the best chances for diurnal convection will be at the coast there instability will be the greatest owing to higher mean moisture values. Pops will range from 20% across the far interior to 30-40% at the coast, highest over the Charleston Tri-County area. Highs will peak in the mid 90s away from the beaches. Heat indices will only peak around 100 across the interior where low-level moisture is the most likely to mix out to 100-105 at the coast. Overnight lows will range from the lower- mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Tuesday: Subtropical ridging will quickly build into the region Tuesday as the Bermuda high centered well offshore nudges to the west and a weak surface trough lingers inland. Rain chances do not look overly high with a northwest flow aloft helping to pin the sea breeze at the coast and promoting the mixing out of low-level moisture, especially across the interior. Dewpoints will pool back into the mid-upper 70s at the coast near the sea breeze and this is where the best chances for isolated showers/tstms will occur. Highs will range from the mid-upper 90s away from the beaches with heat indices peaking 105-110 at the coast where low-level moisture will pool near the sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Subtropical ridging will dominate for much of the period resulting in temperatures at or slightly above normal with rain chances holding just below normal for mid-July. Temperatures could reach the century mark some some spots across the interior. Dewpoints will mix out during the afternoons, especially across the interior, but will pool back well into the 70s near the sea breeze. Coastal heat indices could reach 105-110 at times, peaking near or just below Heat Advisory thresholds. Rain chances will increase with a weak front on Saturday. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... This evening a weakening mid-level disturbance will push across SC helping to initiate isolated showers and thunderstorms. Convection associated with the upper disturbance should remain inland and away from the TAF sites. However, convection developing along the semi-pinned sea breeze across southeast Georgia could impact KSAV, where a TEMPO remains in place for TSRA and lowered vsbys this evening. There is low confidence that showers/tstms will directly impact KCHS or KJZI, therefore we keep VFR with no vicinity convection through 18Z Sunday. The only exception being KJZI, where VCSH is in place overnight for showers occurring offshore and could approach the terminal. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. Brief restrictions could occur from showers/tstms Sunday, especially at KSAV. && .MARINE... Tonight: A south to southwest wind will persist as the region lies on the western periphery of Bermuda high pressure. The pressure gradient will pinch slightly between high pressure to the east and a sharpening trough inland, resulting in wind speeds increasing briefly overnight to 15 to 20 kt with slightly stronger gusts. Conditions should fall short of Small Craft Advisory criteria, but this could be something worth watching for future updates. Seas will also increase slightly to 2 to 4 ft. Sunday through Thursday: There are no major concerns. A south to southwest wind regime will persist through the period with the region located along the western periphery of Bermuda high pressure centered well offshore. Winds will generally remain 15 kt or less with seas 2-4 ft. Rip Currents: Area lifeguards have been reporting breaking waves of 2-3 ft with 9-10 sec swells for much of the day. This matches breaking wave guidance well. Similar conditions are expected for Sunday with the potential for a bit more of a sea breeze enhancement. This should yield another moderate risk day for all beaches. Similar conditions are expected for Monday, although sea breeze influences may not be as great. The situation is borderline low/moderate risk, so will lean towards a low risk for now, but an increase to moderate may eventually be needed, especially along the Charleston County beaches where slightly higher breaking wave heights are possible. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && NEAR TERM...BRM SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BRM MARINE...BRM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston SC 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 AMZ330-350-352-354-374-161915- Charleston Harbor- Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM- Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM- 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time. GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042>045-047-052- 161915- Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans- Inland Bryan-Inland Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Inland McIntosh- Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley- Inland Jasper-Tidal Berkeley- 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heat: Heat indices could reach 110 degrees next week. Heat Advisories could be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time. GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-161915- Coastal Bryan-Coastal Chatham-Coastal Liberty-Coastal McIntosh- Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper- 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 ...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Risk for Rip Currents. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Risk for Rip Currents. Heat: Heat indices could reach 110 degrees next week. Heat Advisories could be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.
2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Tybee Island lifeguards reported several moderate strength rip currents ongoing between 12th Street and 18th Street. There were two rip current related rescues near the pier during this time.
Tybee Island lifeguards reported that a family of five had to be rescued from a rip current near the jetty on the North Beach.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1122484, 1122485.