A front across SE GA combined with a passing short-wave trough aloft interacted with diurnal instability and dry mid-level air to produced scattered strong to pulse severe storms that produced wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A front across SE GA combined with a passing short-wave trough aloft interacted with diurnal instability and dry mid-level air to produced scattered strong to pulse severe storms that produced wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 2:16 AM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 316 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 ...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight) Latest imagery depicts a few pockets of stratus attempting to develop west of the Jacksonville Metro, where a weak boundary exists. Over the next few hours low stratus should expand across interior areas with patchy and potentially areas of fog developing by sunrise. Widespread dense fog is not anticipated but pockets could develop over saturated, swamp-like grounds. Northwesterly flow aloft is pushing a substantially drier airmass into NE FL. Latest GOES precipitable water is estimating PWAT around 1.4" which is near the 10th percentile for this time of year. That airmass will continue to sink south through the morning before upper moisture returns associated with a midlevel shortwave tracks overhead late this afternoon and evening. Despite a more robust Atlantic sea breeze, the dry air should keep showers initially fairly isolated. Expect the majority of initial convection to develop across SE GA during the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave overruns a stalled frontal zone. The Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze merger, along the Highway 301 corridor, will be the second. Latest CAMs are generally in good agreement on timing, with predominant period of convection between 4-9PM. Given a bit of lingering dry air aloft and strong instability, primary concerns with storms will be strong downburst winds, localized heavy rain and minor flooding, and lightning. Motion of the storms should be quick and track mostly north to south, perhaps a little south- southeast during the early evening. That said, not a significant concern for flooding. With the loss of heating, convection will gradually fade as it pushes south through the evening. The afternoon sea breeze will keep the beaches and coastal areas cooler once again today with highs generally around 90 with warmer readings inland, in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index today will be around par for the time of year, generally 100-105F. Skies will clear for the most part and allow temps to cool toward the mid 70s tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night) The area will remain between an upper trough digging down the eastern seaboard and ridging over the southern Plains resulting in persistent northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will be draped across the FL/GA border Wednesday morning and then dissipates. Surface winds shift to east- northeasterly as high pressure extends southwestward down the eastern seaboard. Mid-level dry air filters across the area in the wake of the front leading to less convective coverage Wednesday and Thursday. Onshore flow will bring an earlier start to convection along the Atlantic coast as the sea breeze shifts further inland. Daytime heating, decent moisture, and lift along the dissipating boundary and the Atlantic/Gulf coast seabreeze convergence inland along the highway 301 and I-75 corridors will allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Rounds of shortwaves will trek through the northwest flow aloft and pass through the area generally enhancing evening and nighttime convection. A few strong to potentially severe storms will be possible along the sea breeze mergers in the evening especially if they coincide with the passing shortwaves. Onshore flow will moderate temperatures with highs ranging from upper 80s along the coast to the low 90s further inland. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) The trough/ridge pattern begins to breakdown this weekend as the upper trough lifts away and allows deep layer ridging to build across the region from the west. The parade of shortwaves continue to ride the ridge and pass through the region into the weekend. Daily seabreezes will develop and converge east of highway 301 with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing each afternoon. With the added lift provided by the passing waves, the potential for strong to severe storms remains possible especially if the passage coincides with peak heating/instability. Dangerous heat will once again be possible this weekend due to increasing heights aloft and strengthening south-southwesterly flow ushering in Gulf moisture. Heat indices may reach heat advisory criteria with highs in the low-mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 152 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Two concerns of note through the TAF period. First will be the potential low stratus and possible areas of fog developing over the next few hours at inland airfields. Flight conditions may fall to IFR levels with a SCT or BKN cigs between 006-008ft. Low stratus will erode with VFR conditions anticipated by 13z. Second concern will be afternoon t'storm development. The Atlantic sea breeze will push inland farther today and should focus potential inland, generally west of the I-95 corridor. A late round of convection may push southward across JAX/VQQ/CRG/GNV between 21z-01z. Vicinity or passing storms will be capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds this afternoon and evening. Activity will fade as it pushes southward through the end of TAF period. Outside of GNV where WSW winds will be favored, easterly winds are expected with the Atlantic sea breeze early this afternoon. && .MARINE... Onshore flow will develop today as high pressure builds from the north and pushes a weak front south into the Georgia waters. The front will slowly move south into the northeast Florida waters Thursday. High pressure will drift farther northeast and southerly flow will send the stalled front northward as warm front Friday. Another ridge of high pressure will develop to the south through the weekend allowing offshore flow to redevelop. Offshore continues into next week and may strengthen as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Developing onshore flow this afternoon will yield a solid Moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 72 90 71 / 50 20 30 10 SSI 90 79 90 79 / 40 30 40 30 JAX 92 75 90 74 / 50 50 30 20 SGJ 90 76 89 76 / 40 30 40 20 GNV 93 73 91 73 / 60 50 60 20 OCF 92 74 91 73 / 60 50 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
303 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM Hail 3 WNW Jacksonville Heig 30.28N 81.83W
07/31/2023 E0.25 inch Duval FL Trained Spotter
Pea size hail was reported near the
intersection of Blair Road and Normandy
BLVD.
&&
KCThe Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 43 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:53 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were blown down along Windmill Road in Manor. The time of damage was based on radar.
Multiple secondary roads were flooded in the Baxley city limits.
A tree limb was blown down onto a powerline near the intersection of Pearson Highway and North Gate Road. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1122512, 1122511, 1122513.