Weak low pressure passing inland along with modest instability developing ahead of an inland moving sea breeze led to strong/severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail across southeast Georgia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CHS wrote it up.
Weak low pressure passing inland along with modest instability developing ahead of an inland moving sea breeze led to strong/severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail across southeast Georgia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 26, 12:46 PM EST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 146 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A series of storm systems will bring impacts to the area through the end of this week and into early next week. High pressure will then return by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early this afternoon, satellite and KCLX indicates isolated showers and thunderstorms along a sea breeze across the SC Lowcountry and SE GA. Upstream of the forecast area, a disturbance was tracking across the Upstate of SC, pushing east. This feature is expected to make is closest passage to the forecast area during the heat of the afternoon. In addition, the weak sea breeze should continue to push inland this afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR indicate that a larger cluster of storms will develop ahead of the sea breeze, especially across the inland SC counties. SPC mesoanalysis indicates that CAPE will range between 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon. The instability and a FZL below 10kft, one or two storms may become strong. Tonight: Shortwave energy will push offs the coast fairly early and as the atmosphere steadily stabilizes after sunset, shower/tstm activity should wane fairly quickly. Dry conditions will dominate through the night with some nocturnal convection possibly occurring near the west wall of the Gulf Stream as a secondary shortwave approaches. Early evening pops will peak 20-50%, highest over parts of Southeast South Carolina. Lows will range from mid 50s well inland to the mid-upper 60s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday: A mid-level ridge will form over the East Coast during the morning and afternoon, in response to a trough approaching from the Central U.S. The ridge will get pushed offshore in the evening, as a shortwave moves over our region late in the evening and overnight. The main energy associate with the trough should pass well to our northwest during this time period. Additionally, there should be a jet streak following behind the shortwave. This will provide plenty of lift that will cause a storm system to move from the Lower MS Valley in the morning towards the Southeast U.S. during the afternoon and evening, moving over our region overnight. There will be a deep plume of moisture ushered in ahead of this system. Models are in good agreement showing a wide swath of PWATs approaching 1.75" overnight, which is above the 90% mark for CHS per the SPC Sounding Climatology page. Likewise, the NAEFS puts this at 2-3 standard deviations, and it also has a favorable IVT that's 2-3 standard deviations. So there's plenty of moisture for showers. The models continue to differ with the timing by several hours. The GFS has the rain impacting our area first, followed by the NAM, and then the ECMWF. We went towards the middle. The morning will start out dry, with a band of isolated showers developing across the Charleston Tri-County around noon, followed by more isolated showers developing inland during the afternoon. The areal coverage and intensity increases from southwest to northeast later in the afternoon and into the evening. The widespread showers move in around and midnight, persisting overnight. The models vary on the location and the exact amount of the highest QPF. But the general thinking seems to be a widespread 0.5-1.0" of rain overnight. Instability isn't that high, so while thunderstorms are possible, the widespread severe risk is very low. Also, the widespread flooding risk appears low due to the progressive shower/storm movement. Highs will generally peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be very mild, generally in the 60s. Friday: The mid-levels will consist of a shortwave located just off the Southeast U.S. in the morning, quickly shifting offshore into the afternoon. Meanwhile, a trough located to our northwest in the morning will lift to the northeast, passing further to our north overnight. This will cause WSW flow to form over our region late. At the surface, a storm system will be located over most of the East Coast in the morning. The bulk of the northern energy will lift to the northeast while energy over the Southeast U.S. will be slower to shift offshore. If anything, the models have quite a bit of shower activity developing and persisting into the afternoon. But they differ quite a bit on the coverage and intensity of the showers. For this reason, we were forced to go with higher, likely POPs, but with the expectation that it could turn into a lower QPF type of day than what's in the forecast. This aspect of the forecast will need to be refined. Thunderstorms remain possible. But the question will be how much instability will be in place during the afternoon. Regardless, the showers will dissipate from west to east during the evening, with dry conditions expected everywhere after midnight. If the models are to be believed, high temperatures could rise into the mid 80s. We tempered this to around 80 degrees for now since it seems more reasonable given the setup. Lows should again be mild, mainly in the 60s Saturday: WSW mid-level flow will be over the Southeast U.S. in the morning. An unseasonable strong trough will be located over the Great Lakes region and vicinity while a shortwave rounds the base of it, moving over the Southern Plains. All of this will cause another storm system to develop over the Southern Plains and move in our direction. It appears the heaviest rainfall associated with this system should mostly hold off until after sunset. But some showers are possible across our GA counties in the afternoon. As has been said before, this aspect of the forecast will need to be refined due to model differences. Highs could rise into the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models have an unseasonable strong trough located over the Great Lakes region and vicinity Saturday night while a shortwave rounds the base of it. These features are expected to align Sunday night into Monday, while moving over the eastern half of the U.S., and persisting into Tuesday. A storm system and associated cold front should move through our region Saturday night or Sunday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. The severe risk will be highly dependent on the timing of the front. Following the frontal passage, High pressure and drier conditions will build into the region Monday and prevail into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Prior to the 18Z TAFs: Visible satellite showed an advancing sea breeze, especially along the SC coast. The sea breeze has pushed inland of KJZI, aligned with the KCHS and KSAV terminals. Based on satellite trends and recent runs of the HRRR, convection should develop at and around the KCHS and KSAV terminals by 20Z. The convection will be highlighted in the KCHS and KSAV TAFs with a VCTS at 20Z and TEMPOs between 21-24Z. After the rainfall this afternoon and evening, the concern overnight will be the development of restrictive ceilings. MOS and forecast soundings support a mention of at least IFR ceilings between 7-16Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: A series of storm systems will bring periods of flight restrictions through the end of this week and into early next week. The highest probabilities for flight restrictions are Thursday night into Friday, and Saturday night into Sunday. && .MARINE... Today: Winds are a bit elevated near the immediate middle South Carolina coast early this morning where the pressure gradient with a subtle coastal trough just offshore is the tightest. These winds should diminish later this morning. By this afternoon, northeast winds will veer more easterly as the sea breeze develops with speeds 10-15 kt except 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt along the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg. Seas will average 2-4 ft, except as high as 3-5 ft over the South Santee- Edisto Beach nearshore leg. Tonight: Another subtle coastal trough could develop overnight with some indications of a very weak surface low pinching off the Charleston County coast late along the nose of the trough. The net result will be winds backing more to the northeast overnight with winds 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. Thursday through Sunday: A series of storm systems will bring some impacts to the waters through the end of this week and into next week. The first system will move through Thursday night into Friday. The models hint wind gusts and seas could briefly hit Small Craft Advisory criteria across the GA waters beyond 20 nm during this time period. But these same models have also varied quite a bit with each run the past few days. So we're forecasting conditions to remain just below advisory levels for now. The second storm system will quickly move through Saturday night into Sunday. This one could be quite a bit stronger, including convection. But there remains some uncertainty regarding the strength, track, and timing of this system. Likewise, this impacts the resulting winds and seas for our waters. Regardless, conditions should deteriorate with this system, with Small Craft Advisories likely for all of the waters with the frontal passage and continuing behind it into early next week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED MARINE...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston SC 326 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>052-270730- Charleston Harbor- Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM- Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM- Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans- Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long- Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh- Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley- Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper- Tidal Berkeley- 326 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
154 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023
GAZ101-261830-
Effingham-
154 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM COUNTY...
At 154 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Shawnee, or near Springfield. This storm was
nearly stationary.
HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.
SOURCE...Radar Indicated.
IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
unlikely.
Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Springfield, Guyton, Shawnee, Pineora, Stillwell, and Marlow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.
Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.
&&
LAT...LON 3255 8135 3241 8119 3224 8142 3227 8144
3230 8145 3232 8147 3233 8146 3234 8149
3235 8149 3236 8151 3241 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 323DEG 2KT 3241 8141
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
BRMThe Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 46 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:11 UTC.
10 hail, 3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The 911 call center reported a tree down along Highway 17 at Keith Road.
The Effingham County 911 Call Center reported multiple trees down in downtown Guyton. Roads impacted included 4th Street, 5th Street, and 6th Street.
The public reported quarter size hail.
The Effingham County 911 Call Center reported a police car damaged by hail near the intersection of Highway 21 and 119.
An amateur radio operator reported quarter to half dollar size hail off Shearouse Road.
Local broadcast media relayed a picture of a hail stone a little smaller than a golf ball which occurred near the intersection of Highway 30 and Midland Road.
An Effingham County emergency manager reported penny to nickel size hail along Windsor Road.
A trained spotter reported quarter size hail along Jimmy Deloach Parkway at Morgan Lakes Industrial Boulevard.
A trained spotter reported pea to quarter size hail on Wyndham Way.
A report via social media indicated golf ball size hail along I-95 between exits 94 and 90.
A resident in the 70 block of Gentry Way reported golf ball sized hail.
Pictures relayed via social media indicated multiple trees down along Timber Trail.
The public reported tennis ball size hail in Richmond Hill.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, April 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1093639, 1093640, 1093628, 1093629, 1093631, 1093632, 1093633, 1093634, 1093635, 1093636, 1093637, 1093641, 1093638.