High Wind in Florida, October 12, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
233 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT LINGERS INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

A Gulf Low and attendant warm front moving along the coastal
portions of the service area early this morning into the afternoon
will maintain a severe weather and heavy rain threat thanks to a
highly sheared and very moist airmass. The main concerns continue to
be damaging gusts from the presence of a 40-45-kt low-level jet, and
tornadoes given strong veering winds within the boundary layer in
addition to backed surface winds in the warm front's proximity.
Limiting factors are relatively meager instability, which are more
supportive for low-topped convection with little-to-no lightning.
However, the strong kinematics look to offset things, evident by
maritime bowing segments and supercellular modes accompanied by
frequent couplets noted off KEVX/KTLH. We will have to closely
monitor this activity as it nears the coast. A Tornado Watch is now
in effect from Gulf County eastward to include coastal Apalachee Bay
and all of Taylor-Lafayette-Dixie County until 8 AM EDT/7AM
CDT...mainly where the SPC Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is in place. A
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extends northward to the I-10 corridor
in the FL Big Bend. Please ensure that you can be woken up by any
warnings issued.

Satellite, radar, and hi-res model trends suggest that multiple
waves of convection move through the parts of the CWA. The first is
a train of cells moving along or just north of the warm front that
will pose a tornadic threat during the Watch timeline, followed by a
likely additional robust batch moving in from MOB's waters towards
the Emerald Coast around 6Z. As we approach daybreak, storms look to
take on more of a linear mode extending from Apalachee Bay into the
FL/GA state border and likely pose more of a damaging gust threat.
Training cells will also have to be monitored carefully for isolated
flash flooding. Lastly, gusty non-thunderstorm winds are expected,
especially along the coast. Weather should improve from west to east
by late-morning or midday with mainly lingering wrap-around showers
in the Gulf Low's wake.

Widespread cloudiness sticks around all day with the warm front
serving as a boundary between cool, NE flow and moist SW flow. As
such, forecast high temperatures call for mid/upper 60s (i.e.,
Dothan, Albany) to mid-70s/low 80s (i.e., Tallahassee, Cross City)
from NW to SE. Overnight lows are mostly in the 60s away from the
Eastern FL Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Shortwave moving out of the northwest Gulf will help nudge the
frontal system and weak surface low eastward across northern
Florida while a longwave trough advancing through the central US
will add the additional push to send the system off the east
coast. By Saturday, southwest flow will become more zonal awaiting
for the approach of a stronger trough which will turn flow
northwesterly heading into the long term. Rain chances will be on
the downward slide Friday and relegated to the eastern third of
our CWA into Friday night. Decreasing clouds Friday night and
Saturday will allow highs to reach the low to mid 80s. However, a
frontal boundary with winds shifting to the northwest Saturday
night which will usher in cold air advection and cooler
temperatures beyond this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

A digging upper low will dive into the central Appalachians
causing troughing to deepen through the eastern US with ridging
amplifying across the western CONUS. Several shortwaves will move
through the northwest flow, supporting a weak trough/cold front
later Sunday and once again Tuesday. Both features will be a dry
passage so not expecting much more than passing clouds. Beyond
Tuesday, high pressure will build into the northern Gulf then
shift eastward towards the east coast Wednesday. Temperatures will
cool back down towards average or slightly below in some spots
with highs early next week in the upper 60s to low 70s after
morning lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

IFR and below conditions are expected to expand through all the
TAF sites overnight into the rest of the TAF period as a frontal
system will remain in the area with periods of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Most area observations at this time are
reporting IFR with short range models depicting an expansion and
lowering of cigs overnight. Vsbys due to convection will bounce
between IFR and MVFR depending on how heavy the precipitation
gets. Even when convection decreases later today with overcast
skies, vsbys will remain degraded due to mist/fog. Gusty northeast
winds this morning will slowly decrease through the afternoon
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Surface low and frontal system will continue to impact the
northeast Gulf through Friday night, then move eastward Saturday.
Despite this system clearing the area this weekend, periods of moderate
to strong winds will continue into early next week. For today,
Gales will continue into early morning. As winds slowly decrease
through the day, small craft advisories will run through late
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, with isolated waterspouts
is expected through the morning so mariners are urged to remain in
port till conditions slowly improve later this afternoon or
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Wet weather effectively comes to an end by this afternoon, but
lingering showers are likely with mostly cloudy skies. Best
potential for wetting rains is across our FL counties. A few
thunderstorms may be strong to severe this morning into midday.
Low dispersions are forecast today along the I-10 corridor in
addition to mixing heights mainly below 2000 ft. More widespread
low dispersions arrive on Friday, then high dispersions attempt to
creep into the Wiregrass Region on Saturday. A drying trend
arrives this weekend under the influence of northwest winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

The majority of the rainfall this period will fall in the next 24
hours. Expect 2-4 inches along coastal sections from Gulf/Franklin
county east into the southeast Big Bend with 1-2 further north
into Georgia east of the Flint river. The western panhandle and
southeast Alabama will experience an inch or less. Isolated higher
amounts could occur underneath heavier or training convection.
Beyond Friday, rain chances are low to no into mid week next week.
In the heaviest rain areas near the coast and southeast Big Bend,
isolated instances of flash flooding or nuisance flooding could
occur through late this afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  66  82  65 /  60  10  20  10
Panama City   74  65  79  65 /  20  10  20  10
Dothan        65  60  75  61 /  20  10  20  10
Albany        66  62  74  63 /  50  40  30  20
Valdosta      69  64  80  65 /  80  20  30  20
Cross City    84  71  85  67 /  90  20  30  10
Apalachicola  79  69  80  67 /  50  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ115-
     118-127-128-134.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ730-
     765.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for GMZ750-
     752-755-770-772-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning to 2
     PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-
     775.

&&

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1017 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ESE Magnolia Beach    30.15N 85.69W
10/11/2023  M42 MPH          GMZ750             FL   Mesonet

&&

BAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1024 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 SE Panacea-Wakulla Ai 29.95N 84.34W
10/11/2023  M40 MPH          GMZ730             FL   Mesonet

&&

BAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1036 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 SE Carrabelle         29.80N 84.60W
10/11/2023  M40 MPH          Franklin           FL   Mesonet

            An ambient weather station in Dog Island
            gusted to 40 mph.

&&

IG3

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1037 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 SE Carrabelle         29.80N 84.60W
10/11/2023  M40 MPH          Franklin           FL   Mesonet

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from 5 SE Carrabelle. An ambient weather
            station in Dog Island gusted to 40 mph.

&&

IG3

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1039 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSW Eastpoint         29.71N 84.89W
10/11/2023  M50 MPH          GMZ755             FL   Mesonet

            The St George Island Bridge weatherstem
            gusted to 50 mph.

&&

IG3