Drought in Florida, October 10 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
946 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

Only minor changes to the forecast this evening, mostly to
overnight low temperatures across our western zones where
increasing cloud cover by early in the morning could bring
slightly warmer temperatures overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

High pressure will once again remain situated over the area
through the near term, resulting in calm and pleasant conditions.
Daytime high temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s areawide
with overnight lows in the low 50s, perhaps dropping as low as the
upper 40s in our GA counties as radiational cooling prevails ahead
of an upper cloud deck that will move onshore in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

An area of low pressure over the western Gulf with merge with a
frontal boundary to give us our first Gulf low of the season. This
develops in a rather favorable synoptic pattern with a deep trough
ejecting out of Mexico and within the right entrance region of a
120-140 kt jet. Clouds will continue to increase over the area
Tuesday night, keeping temperatures warmer than recent nights (low
to mid 60s). The rain, however, will hold off until Wednesday
afternoon for much of the area. Initially, this will be an
overrunning event with south to southwest flow overtop the front
as it remains over our waters. Some of this rain could be heavy,
especially in our Florida counties, as PWATs surge to 2 to 2.3
inches. Meanwhile, east to northeast surface winds will remain in
place north of the front thanks to some cold air damming against
the Appalachians. With the abundant cloud cover, rainfall, and
cooler air coming in, high temperatures Wednesday will struggle to
get much above the lower 70s.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the area of low pressure
moves over or just south of the Florida counties. Most model
guidance suggests the front should remain just south of the coast,
which should keep most of the thunderstorms over our waters.
However, there is a nonzero chance that the warm front nudges
inland, which could bring in a better chance of thunderstorms,
mainly along and south of I-10. Should this occur, there will be
a 40-50 kt LLJ running overtop the front with ample shear and a
good amount of instability south of the front. Thus, there could
be a conditional risk of severe storms near the coast Wednesday
night into Thursday. But all right now depends on the position of
the front. The heavy rainfall threat will also continue into the
night, mostly in our Florida counties and the southern row of
Georgia counties.

The strengthening LLJ could also act to bring some breezy
conditions to land areas even into the nighttime hours, especially
with winds just off the surface of 30-40 kt. We'll have to watch
the potential of some gusty winds Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

Thursday morning, the area of low pressure moves on, but the
stalled front will remain in the area. This will help maintain a
good chance of showers and storms Thursday before our next cold
front moves through the area late Friday into Saturday. There will
still be bountiful moisture in place, which will keep rain chances
high until the front clears us Saturday. About 30-40 kt of deep
layer shear remains present Friday amidst weak instability.
Wouldn't be totally shocked if a strong storm or two develops
Friday ahead of the front. High temperatures ahead of the front
Friday and Saturday will be quite warm, reaching the middle 80s,
with some guidance suggesting even upper 80s. Lows will also be
quite muggy through Friday night, only dropping to the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

Once the cold front passes, our weather turns much more quiet with
cool air returning Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

Tranquil boating conditions are expected through Tuesday night
with generally light winds and 1 foot seas. However, as a Gulf low
develops and moves northeastward across the marine area Wednesday.
As the low moves over the waters, winds and seas will increase
quickly Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Gusts to gale
force are possible, and a Gale Watch has been issued for our
waters west of Apalachicola. Small Craft Advisories will likely
be needed at some point for our eastern waters. Once the low moves
out of our area Thursday, winds and seas will subside, but still
moderate breezes are expected as another cold front moves through
the marine area late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

Dry conditions will remain present tomorrow, though slightly
improved compared to the past few days with the lowest RH values
remaining in the upper 20s and located primarily in our SW GA and SE
AL counties. Our Florida counties will range from 30% inland to 40%
near the coast. Dispersions within our SE AL counties will remain
elevated with favorable dispersions forecast across our GA and FL
counties.

Beginning Wednesday, dispersions will remain quite low (around 20-30
areawide) as a front passes to our south. Additionally, the
remainder of the period will be quite wet with some embedded
thunderstorms possible. Gusty and erratic winds will be present
within and near these storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

Heavy rainfall is expected across mostly our Florida and southern
row of Georgia counties Wednesday through Friday. With deep
tropical moisture surging back into our area, storms will be
efficient rain producers. A widespread 2-5 inches of rain is
forecast Wednesday through Friday, but localized totals in excess
of 6 inches are possible, especially closer to the front. While
most areas west of the ACF basin are currently in drought, heavy
rainfall on top of dry, hard soils could lead to some initial
runoff. Once the soil loosens up from rainfall, then the ground
will be able to take the rain in most cases. The biggest concern
with this heavy rainfall will be if any training occurs and if it
occurs in urban cores. WPC has placed our Florida counties in a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) with a Marginal
Risk elsewhere for Wednesday. The Marginal Risk continues across
the area for Thursday and even Friday.

Thanks to the drought, many area rivers are low. The concern of
river flooding is low given below normal streamflows. Some Big
Bend rivers, given where heavy rain may fall, have a chance of
reaching action stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   50  83  63  74 /   0   0   0  50
Panama City   58  81  66  76 /   0   0   0  60
Dothan        51  84  61  73 /   0   0   0  50
Albany        48  83  61  73 /   0   0   0  40
Valdosta      49  82  61  74 /   0   0   0  40
Cross City    48  83  63  80 /   0   0   0  40
Apalachicola  58  79  67  77 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
     for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Young