Funnel Cloud in Florida, October 1, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
232 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary across central Florida combined
with deep moisture will continue to provide a focus for scattered
showers and storms across parts of the area through the remainder of
the day with the greatest coverage expected to be south of I-4.
Given the ingredients in place of PWATs in excess of 2" and pockets
of wet soils for the southern half of the forecast area, can't
completely rule out some minor flooding if some areas receive
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall in a short duration but widespread
issues are not anticipated. After the precipitation activity from
today tapers off by mid to late evening,  drier air will filter in
from the north in the wake of this frontal boundary as it continues
to push south of our area into Monday. As a result, much lower rain
chances are expected area-wide tomorrow with most areas dry other
than perhaps scattered storms a few storms for portions of southwest
FL as some deeper moisture will linger for longer there. Otherwise,
it should be mainly dry and breezy tomorrow with steady
northeasterly winds of around 10-15 with gusts up to 25 mph or at
times.

Tuesday should be a mostly rain-free day as the drier air mass
becomes more established across the region and scours out any
lingering deep moisture, though a few showers will be possible for
interior areas. However, rain chances will slightly increase by the
middle to end of the week as an upper level low closes off offshore
of the Atlantic coast of Florida and meanders there for a couple of
days. With this feature in place and persistent low-level
northeasterly flow, there will be an increase in Atlantic moisture
across the area with rain chances increasing to about 20%-40% on
Wednesday and Thursday as highest PoPs be interior areas with lower
chances closer to the coast. By Friday, the upper level low will
weaken and lift away from the area as an upper level trough digs
across the eastern US. The associated cold front is expected to
approach the area by next weekend with a potential for a shot of
much cooler and drier air moving into the region by the end of the
period, though uncertainty remains on how far south the frontal
boundary will move through at this time but chances are still
reasonable for some slightly cooler weather by the end of next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the
day but there may be brief periods of flight restrictions due to
scattered shra/tsra as a frontal boundary pushes southward
through the area. Precip activity will generally taper off by mid
to late evening with mostly VFR conditions overnight at Tampa Bay
area terminals but MVFR CIGs will be possible at southwest FL
terminals tonight due to slow arrival of drier air from the north.
In addition, NE winds will remain fairly breezy overnight around
8-12 kts and winds will increase further into Monday as gusts of
20 kts or more may occur at times throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

A frontal boundary across central Florida will continue to drop
southward through the Gulf waters into tonight with increasing
northeasterly winds developing in the wake of the boundary.
Cautionary levels this afternoon will transition to Small Craft
Advisory conditions this evening in the wake of this frontal
boundary for northern and central waters. Cautionary levels then
return to the waters on Monday but additional SCA headlines may be
needed Monday night as winds are expected to increase again.
Northeasterly winds generally prevail for the remainder of the
week with winds mostly around 10-15 kts, but cautionary levels may
be reached at times particularly during the normal increase in
the evening hours. In addition, scattered showers and storms
remain possible through the remainder of the day for central and
southern waters as the front moves through but drier air in the
wake of the front will bring lower rain chances throughout much of
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

A frontal boundary is somewhat stalled across central Florida but
will move slowly southward through the remainder of the day with
some scattered showers and storms possible mostly for areas south
of I-4. While breezy northeasterly winds develop across the area
in the wake of the frontal boundary tonight into the new week,
minimum RH values should remain above critical levels over the
next several days. The much drier air mass moving into the area
for the new week will also generally keep low rain chances in
place with mostly dry weather Monday and Tuesday before moisture
begins to return by the middle to end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  89  71  89 /  20  10   0  20
FMY  75  88  71  90 /  30  30   0  20
GIF  73  86  70  87 /  20  10   0  20
SRQ  74  90  70  90 /  30  10   0  10
BKV  70  88  65  88 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  76  87  74  87 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close