A strong upper-level ridge extended over the region. Light steering flow enabled sea breezes to develop and move inland into the afternoon with a few to isolated strong pulse severe storms along boundary mergers over a very moist and unstable airmass.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A strong upper-level ridge extended over the region. Light steering flow enabled sea breezes to develop and move inland into the afternoon with a few to isolated strong pulse severe storms along boundary mergers over a very moist and unstable airmass. Local heat advisories were in effect for heat index values 108-112 degrees. A high rip current risk continued at local beaches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 8:15 AM EST, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
915 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
Only minor changes to the forecast at this time were an overall
slight lowering of high temps, and minor tweaks to POPs. Even with
the minor change in highs today, still expecting heat indices
topping out in the upper 100s inland north of Marion County, and
therefore Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening.
Chances for showers and t'storms still look to be west of Highway
301 towards the Suwannee River Valley and inland GA where the sea
breezes meet late this afternoon. Thunder chances appear slight
due to some subsidence aloft with the weak stacked high, and
therefore adjusted this for the fcst accordingly. Mainly isolated
to widely scattered showers expected with very isolated embedded
thunder.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
High temperatures on Sunday will range from 95 to 99 degrees,
with heat indices expected to be near 108 degrees for portions of
inland northeast Florida and inland southeast Georgia. This
prompted the issuance of Heat Advisories across most of northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia on Sunday. The east coast sea
breeze will help to keep coastal locations at just under Heat
Advisory Levels. By the evening, lows will range from the mid to
upper 70s.
As the east and west coast sea breezes move inland, the potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms begins during the late
afternoon to early evening hours across inland areas. The
potential for strong to severe storms remain low.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room,
stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
High pressure ridge aloft over the region on Monday will settle
slightly southward over the FL Peninsula on Tuesday and this will
start to shift the steering flow to a more SWly direction, which
will start to shift the focus of heat and storm activity back
towards the East Coast and I-95 corridor as the Atlantic sea
breeze gets trapped closer to the coast with scattered coverage of
storms expected both days in the 30-50% range. Still expect very
hot and humid conditions with highs into the mid/upper 90s and
heat indices pushing into the 105F to 110F range and Heat
Advisories will likely need to be posted both days for all areas
including the Atlantic beaches. With the extreme daytime heating
and low level instability, isolated strong/severe storms will be
possible both days.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
Wed/Thu...Very hot and humid conditions continue as high pressure
ridge aloft continues to weaken slightly and remain south of the
region over the FL Peninsula, and continued highs into the
mid/upper 90s along with Heat Indices peaking in the 105F to 110F
range, which will likely require daily Heat Advisory headlines for
most areas. Atmospheric moisture continues to slowly increase
for scattered afternoon/evening storms as weak sea breeze
boundaries move inland both days and coverage increases to 40-60%.
Fri/Sat...Ridge axis breaks down further and shifts into the
Western Atlantic along with substantial troughing over the SE US
states and this will shift the steering flow back towards a wetter
Southwest flow pattern and increasing daily rainfall chances into
the 50-70% range, with scattered to numerous showers and storms,
mainly during the afternoon/evening hours. These increased
rainfall chances and southwest flow pattern will shift Max Temps
slightly downward into the lower to middle 90s with heat indices
still topping out around 105 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
VFR generally prevails at all sites, with MVFR vis near 5SM hanging
on at VQQ expected to improve shortly. The east coast sea breeze
is expected to move from east to west across sites between about
16Z to 20Z time frame, meeting the west coast sea breeze late this
aftn. This should develop some SHRA and possibly some isolated
TSRA near the Suwannee River Valley. Kept mention of VCSH only at
GNV as of now, as confidence not high enough for robust convection
to form further east due to weak stacked high pressure over most
of the region. TSRA cannot be ruled out at GNV, though chance
appears low at this time, and even lower further east.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
High pressure will move south of north Florida later today. By
Monday, a lingering front over Georgia will begin to make its way
southward through midweek. Ahead of the front, showers and
thunderstorms are expected over local waters through the end of
the upcoming week.
Rip Currents: Recent lifeguard reports of rip current rescues prompted
an extension of High Rip Current Risk through tonight. A moderate
rip current risk is advertised for SE GA beaches and all beaches
on Monday and July 4th.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
Daily record high temperatures and occurrence year for official climate
sites:
DATE SUN 7/02 MON 7/3 TUE 7/4
-------------------------------------------
JAX 100 99 99
(1902) (2019) (1970)
CRG 100 98 98
(1998) (1998) (1979)
GNV 99 101 99
(1902) (1902) (1997)
SSI 97 97 99
(2019) (2014) (1979)
AMG 99 101 99
(2019) (2019) (1997)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 97 76 97 75 / 30 20 50 30
SSI 94 78 93 78 / 10 10 30 20
JAX 96 76 97 75 / 20 10 40 20
SGJ 91 75 94 75 / 10 10 30 20
GNV 97 75 97 74 / 30 20 50 20
OCF 96 75 96 73 / 20 10 50 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ020-021-023-024-
030-031-035-122-136-222-225-232-236-425.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
AM...None.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
933 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0550 PM Rip Currents 1 ENE Fernandina Beach 30.67N 81.43W
07/01/2023 AMZ452 FL Lifeguard
The Fernandina Beach lifeguards reported 6
rip current rescues yesterday, 7/1. Surf
height was 2-3 ft. NWS JAX had a moderate
rip current risk for SE GA beaches and a
high risk for NE FL beaches.
&&
ABEPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
940 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM Rip Currents 1 ENE Fernandina Beach 30.67N 81.43W
06/30/2023 AMZ452 FL Lifeguard
The Fernandina Beach lifeguards reported 10
rip current rescues on Friday, 6/30. A high
rip current risk was advertised for NE FL
beaches and a moderate rip for SE GA
beaches.
&&
ABEThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Flagler Beach Ocean Rescue assisted with a rip current rescue at North 10th Street in Flagler Beach.
Flagler Beach Ocean Rescue saved one person from rip currents at South 23rd Street in Flagler Beach.
Fernandina Beach Ocean Rescue had 5 rip current rescues before 2 pm. Surf heights were 2-3 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1106255, 1106258, 1106257.