A heat advisory was in effect for heat index values of 108-112F. Sea breeze storms across north-central Florida produced localized wet downbursts.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A heat advisory was in effect for heat index values of 108-112F. Sea breeze storms across north-central Florida produced localized wet downbursts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 8:07 AM EST, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
907 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023
Forecast remains on track for Hazy, Hot and Humid conditions with
widespread Max Temps into the mid/upper 90s and Heat Indices into
the 105F to 110F range and current Heat Advisory looks good. PWATs
down around 1.25 inches across most of the area will suppress
convection once again for most locations, except for some limited
deeper moisture on the edges of the region where PWATs of 1.5
inches or more will trigger some isolated to widely scattered
storms across North Central FL, mainly south of a line from GNV to
SGJ, and another area across inland SE GA, mainly north of
Waycross, where late day/evening storms are possible along with
models suggesting a nocturnal convective complex across the SE US
could drift southward into this same area as it weakens later this
evening into the overnight hours.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023
Surface high pressure will be to the east southeast this period,
while a large upper high pressure dome remains to the west. With
high pressure ridging at the surface and aloft, anticipate very
limited potential for convection Today. Best moisture convergence
will be over north central FL, so have focused activity this
afternoon south of KGNV to KSGJ.
Remnants of convective complex over Alabama will continue to
dissipate as it moves south, and encounters ridge. High cloudiness
will still be expected to advect into region. Another complex is
expected to develop a little further to the north northeast this
afternoon, with this area then moving southeast across GA this
afternoon and evening. Could see some of this activity move across
SE GA this evening.
Combination of patchy fog and haze/smoke will produce some
visibility restrictions this morning. The haze/smoke from distant
fires will provide for somewhat hazy conditions throughout the day,
but should be enough mixing to keep from having visibility
reductions. However, reductions will be possible again Tonight.
Highs will generally range between 95 and 100 Today. The east coast
sea breeze will move inland past I-95 this afternoon, so readings
will be a little cooler at area beaches. Heat indices will rise to
around advisory levels over portions of forecast area. The area
most prone to these higher values will be over central portion of
forecast area, away from convective to south and north. So have
issued Advisory. Lows Tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023
Main headlines: The heat remains on this period (triple digit heat
possible) with high temperatures just a few degrees away from
records, and record high minimums possible. Rain chances remain
fairly low generally around 20-30 percent or less given the
relatively dry low-level airmass and subsidence inversion aloft.
For Thursday, the main action where some afternoon showers or
storms are possible is over the eastern zones as westerly flow
meets up the east coast sea breeze which should not get very far
inland, probably to near I-95 but that's about it. Temps at 850 mb
are progged to be about 19-20C per the GFS, which is near the
upper end of the max for this time of year. Max temps are forecast
to widespread from about 95 to near 100 based on consensus
guidance, but dewpoints mix out to about the lower 70s, which
should still result in heat indices to about 107-110. Thus, some
areas meeting heat advisory criteria are certainly possible. Thu
night, any lingering isolated convection expected to dissipate.
Warm min temps in the mid to near 80 expected with light
southwest flow.
Friday, sfc ridge will shift further south as mid level ridge
weakens aloft and some more troughing develops over the eastern
U.S. This will enhance our westerly to southwesterly flow over the
area. Still relatively dry in the low levels and PWATS look to be
about 1.7 inches or so. The west coast sea breeze should move
inland quickly, and the east coast sea breeze will likely stay
near the beach or just offshore given the stronger 0-3 km flow.
Rain chances are low given the lack of strong forcing and subsidence
so chances are about 10-30 percent for now. Both Thursday and
Friday, the better chance of precip is over north central FL where
better low level convergence is likely. As for max temps, still
looking at 95-100, and more heat will make it to the coast. Heat
advisory may be needed for some locations. Fri evening and night,
models suggest shortwave energy make work southeastward to near
the Altamaha River basin early in the evening and possibly
overnight that could spark some isolated convection, but
confidence is low on this potential at this time. Lows again will
be warm again due to stirring winds and warm conds aloft. We have
min temps in the mid to upper 70s, and about 80 at the coast.
(Normal lows are about 72-75 deg this time of year).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023
We go back to relatively unsettled weather pattern for the weekend
and early next week as the mid level ridge will be shunted to the
south while the east coast trough digs into the area again. A weak
cool front associated with the east coast trough will shift south
to southern parts of GA during this period.
The combination of enhanced moisture with PWATs of about 2+
inches and favorable lift with the trough and energy rotating
through it, will bring our rain chances back to above normal again
of about 40-60 percent, possibly higher at times into early next
week. Sunday looks to be the wetter day with rain chances
widespread at about 65-75 percent. For most of the period, low
level flow is westerly and will allow for the west coast sea
breeze to be dominant, with the east coast sea breeze remaining
over the east coast counties. Increased winds aloft coupled with
enhanced instability will bring the potential for more isolated
strong to possibly severe storm activity Saturday through Monday,
with the main threat being damaging winds. Based on latest GFS and
ECMWF, some drier air may work into the region from the northwest
Monday through Tuesday, which should diminish rain chances a bit,
especially for southeast GA. Temps will trend back to near normal
given the increased clouds and precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023
Mainly VFR with some brief light MVFR Haze (HZ) at a few sites for
a couple of hours this morning, otherwise pocket of drier air
aloft will continue to suppress convection at all TAF sites
through the day, with only a weakening MCS drifting through GA
late this evening, that may clip SSI with a brief TSRA and have
continued previous forecast trend of VCTS there from 03-07Z,
otherwise expect mainly VFR conds again tonight with some pockets
of light HZ/BR at MVFR levels late in the current TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023
High pressure will be southeast of the region through Thursday. The
high will sink further to the south Thursday night, as a cold front
moves into the southeastern US. This frontal boundary will be
northwest of the region through the weekend.
Rip Currents: The long period swells and enhance tide range
supports moderate risk of rip currents through Thursday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023
Record high temperatures for our designated climate sites from
Today through Saturday are listed below.
Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
-------------------------------------------
Jacksonville 101/2000 103/2000 102/1942 101/1942
Gainesville 101/1899 100/1942 102/1942 99/1907
Alma, GA 102/2002 104/2000 102/1942 100/1942
St. Simons 102/1986 104/1986 97/1986 101/1977
Craig Airport 99/1993 100/2000 98/2015 99/1977
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 98 75 99 76 / 20 20 20 10
SSI 93 80 95 80 / 10 20 20 20
JAX 98 77 99 77 / 10 10 20 20
SGJ 93 76 95 76 / 10 0 20 20
GNV 96 74 97 75 / 10 10 30 20
OCF 95 74 96 75 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
FLZ023-024-033-122-124-125-132-133-225-232-325-425.
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
GAZ165-166-264-350-364.
AM...None.
&&The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 58 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:58 UTC.
1 heat, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A 10-month-old girl died after being left in a hot vehicle in Macclenny Florida.
A large oak tree was snapped at the trunk and fell across SW 153rd Place Road. It blocked the entrance to the Marion Oaks neighborhood. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion in the Storm Data database.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat, Baker | 2023-07-19 | 1 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1107915, 1107914.