Flash Flooding in Florida, July 14, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Mostly VFR conditions across the area with some LIFR cigs across
interior south central Alabama. Scattered storms have already
developed across the Florida Panhandle this morning and more
storms are expected to develop by midday. MVFR conditions are
expected as storms spread along the coast and inland. Gusty winds
will also accompany the strongest of storms. Storms should
subside shortly after sunset this evening with VFR conditions
returning. Winds will be light out of the southwest throughout
the forecast. BB/03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 440 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Starting to sound like a broken record. Pattern has
not changed one bit over the past few days and will likely persist
into the weekend. Upper ridging remains firmly in place over the
western US with troughing over the Great Lakes. Mainly weak zonal
flow remains in place over the area with several weak shortwaves
progressing through the flow. At the surface, high pressure
continues over Florida continuing to pump in rich gulf moisture
fueling yet another day of early storms. Expect likely to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop during the morning approaching
noon mainly across the Florida Panhandle and coastal areas of
Alabama. These storms will likely just continue to build inland
throughout the day as outflow boundaries collide and the seabreeze
continues its march inland. Like most summer days, stronger storms
will be capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall. The rainfall will likely become the bigger story given
PWATS will be in the 2.25 to 2.5 range which is flirting with the
daily record PWAT for the Slidell Louisiana sounding site. Point is
the moisture is rich and any stronger storms will be able to support
efficient warm rain processes. Rainfall rates will likely exceed 3
to 4 inches per hour in the heaviest storms. The best focus will be
across the northwestern Florida Panhandle where moisture will be the
highest and deep moist convergence is maximized. High res guidance
has backed off a little from last nights run; however, there is
still enough of a signal across the Florida Panhandle to suggest a
higher Flash flood risk than a standard summer day. Saturday will
have some shortwave ridging aloft keeping rain chances not quite as
widespread but still expect at least scattered to likely showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Other than the daily rain chances, the heat will be the other issue.
As the upper ridge slowly noses in from the west and rain chances
shift eastward, temperatures west of I-65 will begin to climb. This
will yield heat indices in the 105 to 110 range. Wet bulb globe
temperatures continue to remain in the extreme levels meaning that
long periods of time outside can yield heat concerns such as heat
stroke. The only caveat to the heat will be the potential for rain,
but there should be enough time prior to the rain beginning to
support a heat advisory at least for areas west of I-65. The rip
current risk will remain LOW. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Upper level ridging will continue to extend from the southwestern
US into the Lower Mississippi Valley and into portions of the
local area in the short term. While down at the surface, ridging
over the Gulf waters maintains an onshore flow component. The
onshore winds will keep moisture plentiful across the area through
the period with scattered to locally numerous showers and
thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoons, with more isolated
coverage each night. Convection should generally follow a diurnal
pattern starting in the morning near the coast and spreading
inland through the afternoon. High will remain in the upper 80s
and low 90s with heat index values between 103 and 108. /13

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

The upper ridge to the west is forecast to expand eastward into
our region as we go through early to mid next week. There are
still disagreements in how strong the ridge will become, but there
are indications that it could be strong enough to significantly
limit diurnal convection by Tue-Wed. Therefore, the forecast will
reflect rain chances gradually decreasing early to mid week. This
also means the heat will likely build across the region with highs
creeping into the mid to potentially upper 90s. Heat Advisories
will likely be become necessary with values potentially exceeding
110 in the Tue-Thu time frame. /34

MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

No hazards are expected outside of the potential for
numerous showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. A light to
occasional moderate southwesterly to westerly flow will persist
throughout the week. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  76  93  77  94  74  93  75 /  80  20  60  10  60  30  60  10
Pensacola   89  77  91  79  93  77  92  77 /  80  30  70  20  60  30  60  10
Destin      88  79  89  80  89  78  89  80 /  90  40  70  20  60  30  60  10
Evergreen   92  73  92  74  93  71  93  72 /  80  20  60  20  60  30  50  10
Waynesboro  94  73  94  74  94  72  93  72 /  70  20  40  10  60  20  40  10
Camden      91  73  93  74  93  71  92  71 /  70  20  60  20  60  20  40  10
Crestview   91  73  92  74  94  73  94  74 /  80  30  80  20  70  20  60  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051-052-261-263-265.

FL...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

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