Moist, unsettled SW steering flow and low-level convergence brought an early start to storms across the Suwannee River Valley. A short-wave trough impulse approached from the west in the afternoon over an unstable airmass, that further enhanced convective growth as storms approached the Atlantic coast.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Moist, unsettled SW steering flow and low-level convergence brought an early start to storms across the Suwannee River Valley. A short-wave trough impulse approached from the west in the afternoon over an unstable airmass, that further enhanced convective growth as storms approached the Atlantic coast. A strengthening low-level jet prevented the east coast sea breeze from moving far inland but did enhance downdraft strength in storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 7:38 AM EST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 838 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 838 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Convection currently overspreading the FL Big Bend and southern GA will move quickly eastward this morning, reaching the TAF sites after 15Z and departing our southern TAF sites, SGJ and GNV, by 20Z. We have included TEMPO groups for wind gusts up to 35 knots and IFR visibilities during heavier downpours at each TAF site, which will occur around noon or during the early afternoon hours. Surface wind gusts could be in excess of 35 knots may be possible within heavier thunderstorms that move across our region, so please check for TAF updates late this morning and through the early afternoon hours. Outside of this fast moving convection, southwesterly surface winds will increase and become sustained at 10-15 knots by 14Z, with frequent gusts around 20 knots developing before 17Z as convection approaches from the west. Another round of convection could develop along the FL/GA border towards 00Z, and we included PROB30 groups for MVFR conditions towards or just after sunset at SSI, with this second round of activity potentially impacting the Duval County terminals through around 02Z. Confidence was too low for potential impacts at GNV and SGJ to include PROB30 groups, although the next round of convection may impact these southern TAF sites after 09Z Tuesday. VFR conditions are otherwise expected late this evening and overnight at the Duval County terminals and SSI, with south-southwesterly surface winds diminishing to 5-10 knots at the regional terminals by 05Z. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Pre-frontal convection was pressing eastward across Apalachee Bay with a few light echos across our western SE GA zones early this morning. Surface based CAPE was over 1000 J/kg across the Suwannee River Valley where strengthening low level SW flow was keeping temps in the low 80s and juicy dew pts in the upper 70s. Through the early morning hours, anticipate additional blossoming of showers and isolated storms nosing inland from the GOMEX across NE FL tracking steadily toward the Atlantic coast through midday. Additional showers and storms will begin to develop across SE GA late morning into the afternoon as a surface front across north GA shifts farther south as the parent upper level trough deepens across the region, coinciding under a 850 mb jet streak now 30-40 kts and effective shear near 30 kts. This dynamical support will support strong wind gusts in deeper convection that forms, provided enough low level instability develops in the wake of morning convection, especially across NE FL. Another band of pre-frontal convection could near the Altamaha river basin the late afternoon/evening, where the strongest dynamics will phase but low level instability may be lacking given cloud cover and cooler temps. The main hazards from deeper convection today will be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A band of fading convection is expected to drift southward across SE GA through this evening, then extend across NE FL through early Tuesday morning as the upper level trough axis slides toward the Atlantic coast. A drier WNW to NW mid/upper level flow across SE GA limits precip potential after midnight tonight, but a continued westerly flow across NE FL through Tuesday morning and the approach of another short wave trough from the west will once again edge convection inland from the GOMEX during the early morning hours across the Suwannee River Valley. High temps will trend much cooler today in the mid 80s for many areas due to cloud cover and early onset of rainfall with some low 90s possible across our SE zones near the St. Johns River basin. Breezy winds near 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph will be possible at times before cloud cover limits insolation mainly across NE FL zones midday into the afternoon. Low temps tonight will trend cooler across SE GA due to drier air with lows near normal in the low 70s while near to above normal lows in the mid 70s will continue across much of NE FL where cloud cover remains. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The frontal boundary will continue to press down into Florida through midweek with the highest concentration of showers and storms occurring over northeast Florida on Tuesday and becoming more diminished by Wednesday as drier air pushes in over a majority of the forecast area. Strong to severe storms are anticipated on Tuesday with a potential for widespread heavy rainfall with localized flooding as moist westerly flow ahead of the frontal boundary brings in PWAT values reaching upwards of 2.25 to 2.4 inches. Convection will be more inhibited and less widespread on Wednesday with scattered developments still possible in the afternoon and evening hours occuring in conjunction with the diurnal sea breeze and areas of convergence. Daily high temperatures during this period will rise between Tuesday and Wednesday as convective developments become less widespread by midweek. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Prevailing flow will resettle into a predominantly southwesterly- westerly pattern by this weekend with the pattern of diurnal convection developing in association with the afternoon sea breeze mergers and areas of convergence. High temperatures will return to well above average levels before the end of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 A surface front will slide southward across Georgia today while high pressure extends across south Florida. Elevated WSW winds early this morning were 15-20 kts across the outer waters and initialized with as Small Craft Exercise Caution headline over the outer waters. Waves of showers and storms will move across the local waters through this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes and winds become more SW 10-15 kts into the evening. The front will linger across Georgia Tuesday, then high pressure will build northward across the Florida peninsula Wednesday. High pressure will extend across central Florida through the end of the week with prevailing southwest winds over the local waters which will become southeast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Rip Currents: Low risk today and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 73 91 73 / 80 50 30 10 SSI 86 76 92 78 / 90 60 50 10 JAX 87 75 92 73 / 80 50 80 20 SGJ 88 76 90 74 / 70 40 80 20 GNV 87 75 87 73 / 80 40 90 20 OCF 89 75 86 74 / 80 50 90 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
FLZ020-023-122-GAZ162-163-250-350-364-101515-
Baker FL-Hamilton FL-Northern Columbia FL-Clinch GA-
Western Charlton GA-Echols GA-Northern Ware GA-Southern Ware GA-
1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Baker,
northeastern Columbia, northeastern Hamilton, eastern Echols, central
Ware, Clinch and west central Charlton Counties through 1115 AM
EDT...
At 1025 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Mayday to Jasper to Wellborn. Movement was east
at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Homerville, Fargo, Argyle, Du Pont, Needmore and Manor.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3115 8243 3071 8237 3054 8234 3053 8261
3055 8284 3101 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1425Z 247DEG 42KT 3085 8302 3051 8298 3021 8282
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
NELSONSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1044 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
FLZ023-030-031-122-136-222-236-GAZ364-101530-
Eastern Alachua FL-Southern Columbia FL-Western Alachua FL-Baker FL-
Union FL-Bradford FL-Northern Columbia FL-Western Charlton GA-
1044 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Bradford, central
Alachua, Baker, Union, northeastern Columbia and south central
Charlton Counties through 1130 AM EDT...
At 1044 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Needmore to Olustee to 6 miles east of Archer.
Movement was northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Starke, Lake Butler, Keystone Heights, Raiford,
Worthington Spring, Taylor, Alachua, Macclenny and Glen St. Mary.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3055 8269 3059 8251 3059 8244 3057 8222
3066 8219 3066 8218 3043 8205 2966 8206
2950 8246 3015 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1444Z 229DEG 23KT 3070 8265 3022 8243 2954 8240
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
NELSONSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1101 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
FLZ023-024-GAZ152-165-250-264-350-364-101545-
Baker FL-Inland Nassau FL-Northeastern Charlton GA-Inland Camden GA-
Western Charlton GA-Brantley GA-Northern Ware GA-Southern Ware GA-
1101 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Nassau,
northwestern Baker, western Camden, Brantley, southeastern Ware and
Charlton Counties through 1145 AM EDT...
At 1100 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Manor to Fargo to near Belmont.
Movement was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hilliard, Folkston, Nahunta, Stephen Foster State Park, Homeland,
Hickox, Boggy Bay, Race Pond, Fort Mudge and Braganza.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3056 8185 3051 8242 3073 8242 3116 8248
3126 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1500Z 253DEG 35KT 3109 8245 3068 8256 3042 8277
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
NELSONSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1113 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
FLZ033-125-132-133-232-325-101600-
Eastern Clay FL-Coastal St. Johns FL-Western Clay FL-
South Central Duval FL-Coastal Duval FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
1113 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern St. Johns,
northeastern Clay and southeastern Duval Counties through NOON EDT...
At 1113 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Green Cove Springs, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Orange Park, Green Cove Springs, Unf, Mandarin, Fruit Cove, Ponte
Vedra Beach, Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach and
World Golf Village.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2993 8175 3008 8181 3052 8145 3052 8144
3054 8144 3057 8141 3044 8137 3025 8135
2999 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1513Z 258DEG 28KT 3002 8169
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
NELSONSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1119 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
FLZ023-024-031-033-124-125-132-136-137-225-232-237-325-425-GAZ165-
364-101600-
Western Clay FL-South Central Duval FL-Eastern Putnam FL-
Inland Nassau FL-Bradford FL-Eastern Clay FL-Eastern Alachua FL-
Baker FL-Western Duval FL-Western Putnam FL-Trout River FL-
Coastal Nassau FL-Coastal Duval FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
Inland Camden GA-Western Charlton GA-
1119 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Nassau, eastern
Bradford, east central Alachua, western St. Johns, eastern Baker,
northern Putnam, Clay, Duval, southern Camden and southeastern
Charlton Counties through NOON EDT...
At 1119 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Stephen Foster State Park
to 6 miles west of Bryceville to near Hawthorne. Movement was east at
35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Palatka, Orange Park, Green Cove Springs, Starke,
Hilliard, Interlachen, Keystone Heights, Callahan and East Palatka.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2960 8152 2956 8211 3034 8212 3056 8227
3079 8171 3042 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1519Z 263DEG 32KT 3069 8227 3037 8204 2959 8203
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
NELSONSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1136 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
FLZ021-030-035-136-222-236-101615-
Eastern Alachua FL-Southern Columbia FL-Western Alachua FL-Union FL-
Suwannee FL-Gilchrist FL-
1136 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gilchrist,
northwestern Alachua, western Union, southern Columbia and southern
Suwannee Counties through 1215 PM EDT...
At 1136 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mayo, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Bell, Ichetucknee Spring, Columbia, High Springs, Fort White,
Providence, Mcalpin, Luraville, Upland Pines and Lulu.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3023 8316 3013 8245 2966 8252 2970 8294
2976 8295 2980 8292 2981 8293 2983 8289
2989 8288 2990 8290 2989 8292 2996 8293
2996 8295 2999 8296 3001 8300 3008 8307
3011 8312 3011 8316 3009 8319 3011 8320
TIME...MOT...LOC 1536Z 276DEG 40KT 3005 8310
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
NELSONThe Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 32 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:40 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down near the Haddock Drive and Haddock Road intersection. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
A tree was blown down along Owenby Lane near the Jacksonville International Airport. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
The mesonet WeatherStem sensor at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville measured a wind gust of 62 mph. Note that this station has an elevated anemometer.
A tree was blown down at the intersection of Buccaneer Trail and 1st Coast Highway. The time of damage was based on radar.
A tree was blown down by thunderstorm winds. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated to include the event in Storm Data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1106392, 1106397, 1106403, 1106402, 1106399.