Heavy Rain in Florida, August 5, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
120 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

As this mornings wave continues to work its way to the southeast,
diurnal heating has occurred behind it. This heating, along with
mid level troughing is producing another round of convection
northwest of Valdosta, GA.

Expect this activity to move southeast into the Suwannee valley then
across NE FL through this afternoon.  Several more rounds are
expected to move southeast across the area through Tonight, keeping
convective chances in the forecast. Lows Tonight will be in the
middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

On Saturday, a mid level trough will help create instability aloft
across southeast GA and northeast FL with waves moving through flow.
The upper pattern transitions into a zonal flow for Sunday and
Monday. At the surface, a cold frontal boundary pushes south into
northeast GA on Saturday creating a southwesterly flow ahead of it,
with this front then lifting out on Monday. Surface high pressure
will be centered to the southeast through this period. In general
daily rounds of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms expected
each day. Lows mid 70s this period, with highs ranging from the
lower 90s Saturday, to the mid 90s Sunday and Monday. The heat and
humidity will result in heat indices reaching around advisory levels
on Sunday, and possibly warning levels Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

On Monday night into Tuesday the region will be between surface high
pressure to the southeast, and a cold front to the northwest. At
500mb an upper trough will move into the eastern US. The surface
pattern will yield a prevailing southwest flow, which will push the
Gulf sea breeze well inland each afternoon, and keep the east coast
sea breeze largely pinned off shore. The combination of high PWAT
values, instability under upper trough will lead to above average
chances for convection Tuesday. Lows Monday night in the mid 70s
inland, upper 70s coast. Highs Tuesday in the middle 90s, with these
higher readings pushing all the way to the coast due to the
southwest flow. Heat index values Tuesday afternoon rise solidly
into advisory levels, and possibly warning levels. The timing of
convection will likely determine how high the heat indices get.

On Wednesday, the surface trough to the northwest lifts out, as the
upper pattern becomes more zonal. Surface high pressure will be to
the east southeast through Friday. With this pattern a gradual trend
toward a lighter west southwest flow is expected, allowing the east
coast sea breeze to push inland. An upper trough will dig into the
southeastern US Thursday in Friday, helping to provide an additional
source of instability. Daily rounds of showers and storms will be
expected each day, mainly diurnally driven. Lows Tuesday night
through Thursday night will be in the middle 70s. Highs Wednesday
through Friday in the middle 90s. Lower dewpoints are expected from
Wednesday on, so heat index values will be lower. Max indices may
reach into advisory levels briefly each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Active weather pattern will continue numerous showers/storms this
afternoon, so have kept current TAF forecast intact and have just
upgraded PROB30 groups to TEMPO for all TAF sites generally during
the 17-23Z time frame for gusty winds and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS then
becoming VFR with lingering showers (VCSH) around sunset and
possible through the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and
a front to the northwest through Sunday. Surface high pressure will
be to the southeast through the middle of next week.

Rip Currents:  SE GA Moderate Today, Low Saturday
               NE FL Moderate through Saturday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  93  74  95 /  30  40  20  40
SSI  80  92  81  94 /  50  40  30  40
JAX  74  93  76  96 /  60  60  30  50
SGJ  78  93  78  95 /  70  60  30  50
GNV  74  93  75  94 /  60  60  20  70
OCF  74  92  75  93 /  50  60  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&