A wildfire began from lightning in the Dolores Ranger District, northwest of the McPhee Reservoir.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A wildfire began from lightning in the Dolores Ranger District, northwest of the McPhee Reservoir.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 21, 3:00 PM MST, 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 400 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Models have initialized well this afternoon with regards to the closed low over eastern Oregon. Visible satellite imagery clearly shows clouds circulating around this low with some showers and thunderstorms noted along the periphery of these clouds. A few lightning strikes and showers have been found across northern Utah and as the low slowly moves eastward, showery precip will do the same. Latest guidance suggests this will happen with slight chances for a quick shower or rumble of thunder for the overnight hours over our portions of northeast Utah. The remainder of the forecast area will continue to see some shallow CU along with gusty surface south through southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph before the atmosphere decouples later this evening. Outside of the areas mentioned above, look for a quiet night. The deep low will have moved eastward some by Friday morning but really gets moving in the afternoon as the jet stream rounds the base of the low and starts forcing towards Wyoming. Look for another breezy day with winds of 25 to 35 mph being common with some gusts possibly reaching between 40...maybe 45 mph at times. Current guidance is keeping most of the gusts in the 40 mph range and thus, didn't issue any wind highlights. Something to keep an eye on as later model runs come in. A shallow surface cold front will move through between 6PM and 9PM, or thereabouts, and will likely wash out as it reaches the Bookcliffs. Previous guidance was highlighting a bit more widespread precip for the northern valleys as the front moved through but the latest runs have moved it even further northward. Slight chances remain in the forecast with best chances along the WY border for some showers or a quick storm. After midnight, precip will be over leading to a cool overnight as northwesterly flow ushers in cooler air. As far as fire weather concerns, duration and timing still look limited so while some localized critical fire weather conditions are expected, no highlights will be needed. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Behind the system, a ridge will build over the Intermountain West on Saturday. Saturday night, a shortwave moving through just to our south will provide just enough lift to support nocturnal showers mainly over the San Juan Mountains. However, moisture will be insignificant enough to only provide for slight chance pops over the highest elevations. The ridge axis moves east, through the forecast area, on Sunday. By Monday, the axis moves to the east over the western plains as a low pressure system moves toward the Pacific Northwest. This will leave the area under southwest flow through early to mid next week. A couple models indicate a shortwave kicking around this main low Monday night into Tuesday. Whether this shortwave comes to fruition and when it moves around the parent low remains uncertain at this point. It's not until late next week or next weekend that this longwave trough will finally move eastward into the northern plains. Given the persistent southwest flow pattern, throughout much of next week, the main story will be warm and slightly gusty afternoon winds across the area due to mostly sunny conditions, leading to deep mixing. Given the southwest flow pattern, expect near normal temperatures as the ridge builds overhead this weekend. Next week, southwest flow will support daytime temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Expect mostly clear skies and VFR conditions today before clouds begin to increase ahead of the next system across the northwestern Colorado tonight. Gusty winds will be the main aviation concern with widespread south/southwest winds gusting to at least 25 kts through the afternoon in many locations. Low level wind shear may also become a problem overnight. Some isolated showers and storms will begin to form over far northeast Utah late in the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...SS AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-221500- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms across the south this morning will diminish before midday. Apart from some isolated storms over the northern mountains this afternoon, dry weather will prevail area-wide. Gusty southwest winds paired with humidities in the teens will lead to areas of near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, favoring the Four Corners region. Tonight will see showers and a few embedded storms persist across northeast Utah and portions of northwest Colorado into sunrise. Light snow will also fall over the Eastern Uinta Mountains overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds and dry conditions will produce periods of localized near-critical fire weather conditions in the Four Corners area and the lower valleys along and south of the I-70 corridor Friday afternoon. Expect another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern areas on Friday as a system lifts overhead. Light winds and dry conditions under high pressure returns for the weekend and next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1120 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1057 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 W Douglas Pass 39.60N 108.82W
09/21/2023 M47 MPH Garfield CO Mesonet
Mesonet station CO098 139s034 Douglas Pass.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1132 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1107 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 W Douglas Pass 39.60N 108.82W
09/21/2023 M54 MPH Garfield CO Mesonet
Mesonet station CO098 139s034 Douglas Pass.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
114 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1259 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 W Douglas Pass 39.60N 108.82W
09/21/2023 M57 MPH Garfield CO Mesonet
Mesonet station CO098 139s034 Douglas Pass.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Hope Fire started in late September from lightning in the Dolores Ranger District, northwest of the McPhee Reservoir. The fire grew to 1,290 acres before it was contained in early October.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1139813.