Drought in Texas, September 21 to 27, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1128 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Some updated made to POPs and cloud cover based on current and
forecasted trends. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast
remains the same. Short-term progs continue to suggest a weak
disturbance will kick off some additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms overnight. Most of this activity will be confined to
areas of northeast Texas and SW Arkansas north of I-30, along
with McCurtain County Oklahoma. Can't rule out an isolated strong
storm producing a hail threat, but the risk remains marginal. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Tonight and Thursday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1011mb
low just east of the Texas panhandle with a warm front stretching
across the ArkLaTex and back across the central portions of our CWA.
This warm front has been beaten back to the south by a cold pool
associated with the convection that local radars continued to show
moving into the CWA from the northwest. This has led to temperatures
in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the northwest this afternoon while
temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s across the south. Mid
afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough
axis nearly to the Mississippi river. In the wake of this feature
convection is not anticipated to be as vigorous as previously thought
this afternoon. However, northwest flow aloft will continue across
the warm front and help develop additional convection into this
evening that will become increasingly confined to our northern most
zones tonight. Thursday the warm frontal boundary is expected to be
across the northern zones. Daytime heating will combine with a more
subtle shortwave to develop convection across the stalled boundary
that will spread across the northern half of the CWA; and mainly
during the afternoon. A few strong storms with gusty winds will be
possible over the northwest zones again. /22/

Thursday night through the weekend...

Current hi-res guidance continue to show a 593 dm sfc high in a
stalled position across northmen Mexico. Behind this sfc high is a
561 dm low pressure system currently tracking east across the NW
CONUS. There is some disagreement between between the GFS and the
ECWMF regarding the placement of this sfc low by early Friday
morning. The GFS keeps the low centered across portions of southwest
Oregon while the ECMWF places the sfc low a little further east
towards northern Nevada. As this sfc low shifts further east across
the northern Plains, the northern part of the ridge axis will start
to weaken across central Louisiana as a frontal boundary starts to
move across the ArkLaTex region by early Friday morning. This will
support a build up of sufficient southerly low level moisture from
the Gulf Coast bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the area by Friday afternoon. Rain chances will begin to decrease by
Saturday morning with the best chances for rain mainly along and
north of the I-20 corridor, with slightly higher chances for showers
north of I-30 towards the Arkansas and Louisiana state line. For
this reason, went ahead and kept the PoPs between 20 - 30%.  Rain
chances will increase on Sunday with a few storms producing locally
heavy rainfall at times mainly along and north of I-30 which could
lead to localized flash flooding.

Monday through Thursday...

Widely scattered showers and storms will continue through the
remainder of the extended period before ending on Tuesday. This is
largely due to the lingering frontal boundary and the somewhat
stationary 574 dm sfc low across the Ohio Valley region. As the
previously mentioned sfc low continues to stall across the Ohio
Valley heading into Tuesday night, a well defined trough axis will
settle across Louisiana allowing for a brief build of moisture flow.
In response to this, showers will likely make a brief appearance by
Wednesday. Future guidance hints at a sfc low towards southern Iowa
which could suppress rain chances heading into  Thursday. However,
confidence is low regarding the timing of this system as there is
much discrepancy between the GFS and the Euro late in the period.
/CR/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Thursday night through the weekend...

Current hi-res guidance continue to show a 593 dm sfc high in a
stalled position across northmen Mexico. Behind this sfc high is a
561 dm low pressure system currently tracking east across the NW
CONUS. There is some disagreement between between the GFS and the
ECWMF regarding the placement of this sfc low by early Friday
morning. The GFS keeps the low centered across portions of southwest
Oregon while the ECMWF places the sfc low a little further east
towards northern Nevada. As this sfc low shifts further east across
the northern Plains, the northern part of the ridge axis will start
to weaken across central Louisiana as a frontal boundary starts to
move across the ArkLaTex region by early Friday morning. This will
support a build up of sufficient southerly low level moisture from
the Gulf Coast bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the area by Friday afternoon. Rain chances will begin to decrease by
Saturday morning with the best chances for rain mainly along and
north of the I-20 corridor, with slightly higher chances for showers
north of I-30 towards the Arkansas and Louisiana state line. For
this reason, went ahead and kept the PoPs between 20 - 30%.  Rain
chances will increase on Sunday with a few storms producing locally
heavy rainfall at times mainly along and north of I-30 which could
lead to localized flash flooding.

Monday through Thursday...

Widely scattered showers and storms will continue through the
remainder of the extended period before ending on Tuesday. This is
largely due to the lingering frontal boundary and the somewhat
stationary 574 dm sfc low across the Ohio Valley region. As the
previously mentioned sfc low continues to stall across the Ohio
Valley heading into Tuesday night, a well defined trough axis will
settle across Louisiana allowing for a brief build of moisture flow.
In response to this, showers will likely make a brief appearance by
Wednesday. Future guidance hints at a sfc low towards southern Iowa
which could suppress rain chances heading into  Thursday. However,
confidence is low regarding the timing of this system as there is
much discrepancy between the GFS and the Euro late in the period.
/CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Should see mostly VFR conditions during the forecast period, with
mid to high cigs passing over the region. There is a possibility
for some brief low cigs to move over our East Texas sites near
daybreak, but any reduced flight categories would be brief. In
addition to this, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could
move across TXK during the first half of the period, but
confidence remains too low to include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  94  73  90 /  10  10  20  50
MLU  67  93  70  89 /   0  10  10  40
DEQ  65  87  66  81 /  40  50  40  70
TXK  67  89  69  83 /  30  30  30  60
ELD  65  87  67  82 /  20  20  20  60
TYR  73  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  30
GGG  70  93  72  90 /  10  10  20  40
LFK  71  95  72  94 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS
308 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-212015-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
308 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly northeast
Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and extreme southwest Arkansas this
afternoon into this evening. A few strong storms may be possible
with small hail and gusty winds being the main threats. The
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the region each day through the remainder
of the workweek. A cold front may bring more widespread rain with
embedded thunderstorms areawide through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

22