Downslope high winds developed from an encroaching low pressure center. The event was well forecast with some wind gusts reaching above 70 mph.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
Downslope high winds developed from an encroaching low pressure center. The event was well forecast with some wind gusts reaching above 70 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 3, 10:29 AM MST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1129 AM MDT Mon Apr 3 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 403 AM MDT Mon Apr 3 2023 ...Severe and potentially damaging winds will occur from this afternoon through Tuesday evening along with the possibility of blowing dust and very critical fire weather conditions over portions of southeast Colorado... Key Messages: 1) High Fire Danger once again expected across much of south central and southeast Colorado today. 2) Damaging winds/gusts expected across the southern mountains and San Luis Valley this afternoon into tonight. 3) Snow increases in coverage and intensity across the Continental Divide through the period. Relatively quiet across southern Colorado at this time, as a weak front continues to move south across the plains. Some slight cooling noted post FROPA, but the more notable trend is the quick rise in dew points with mid to upper 20s observed across the eastern plains at this time. Don't anticipate either the cooler or more moist weather to last long today, as southwest flow quickly ramps up ahead of an approaching deep upper trough to the west. Similar cooler/moist weather with lighter winds expected to be in place this morning, but by midday, increasing flow and ascent along with deepening low pressure is expected. This will all assist with pushing the current air mass in place over the plains back east and/or helping to erode it. The current low dew points in the single digits to around zero will once again spread back east over much of the CWA through the afternoon hours. In this setup, another warm day is expected, and once again went above guidance with the forecast highs. Temps in the 50s and 60s are expected across the mountain valleys, with temps well into the 70s to around 80 likely over the plains. This will all support another day of rather low humidity values, likely falling to around 6 percent. The increasing westerly flow during this time, will then support high fire danger across much of southern Colorado. Across the San Luis Valley where highest gusts will easily exceed 60 mph, think critical to extreme fire weather will be likely. Just lee of the mountains and into the I-25 corridor, highest gusts will be in the 50 to 60 mph range. Speeds/Gusts will diminish further to the east over the plains, though will still support critical fire weather conditions. Did not make any changes to the current Red Flag Warning in place, however, parts of the far southeast plains may observe critical fire weather conditions slightly longer into the evening. If so, the day shift will need to monitor the need to extend the Warning. Once again, increasing flow and ascent will be the trend later today into tonight ahead of the upper trough. Think the current High Wind Warnings in effect for the southern mountains and San Luis Valley are still on track given overall trends. Have maintained similar gusts up to around 55kt for the San Luis Valley but the bigger change was to extend the Warning for the San Luis Valley longer into the evening. Flow only really increases later this afternoon into the evening, and see no reason why gusts will diminish during that time. Have also maintained the highest coverage of blowing dust over the San Luis Valley and definitely see these blowing dust concerns increase this afternoon. Flow will ramp up over all of the higher terrain later this evening, however, don't expect winds/gusts to support expansion of the current High Wind Warning. Also, do think there could be some brief/isolated gusts up to 60 mph over and just lee of the Ramparts. Don't think its enough to expand the Warning at this time. Lastly, snow will increase over the Continental Divide today but more so later this evening as the trough draws near. Did not make any changes to the current Winter Weather Advisory in effect for portions of the central and southwest mountains. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 403 AM MDT Mon Apr 3 2023 Key messages: 1) Severe and potentially damaging winds are expected through Tuesday evening over most of Southeast Colorado. High impacts to travel will be likely, especially for the southern I-25 corridor. 2) Fire weather conditions are expected over much of the plains and the San Luis Valley during the afternoon and early evening on Tuesday. Spotty critical fire weather conditions will still be possible Wednesday through Friday during the afternoon hours. 3) Some areas of blowing dust will be possible in the San Luis Valley, and also the plains during the late morning and afternoon on Tuesday. 4) Snow over the ContDvd will spread eastward on Tuesday, with some of the snow showers making it over the I-25 corridor and Palmer Divide. Highest snowfall amounts expected in the Sawatch Range and San Juan Mountains. 5) There will be snow possible over portions of the higher terrain and adjacent plains on Wednesday, mainly along the northern I-25 corridor and Palmer Divide area. 6) A cold front will cool things down on Tuesday, and highs will remain below the seasonal average through Wednesday, with a steady warming trend thereafter and then becoming very warm going into the weekend. Detailed discussion: Tuesday... An associated area of lower heights with the major shortwave trough will deepen and close off at the 500 and 700 mb levels right around the tri-state point of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming early in the morning on Tuesday. This will allow for a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, coupled by stronger winds aloft moving overhead out of the southwest to produce very strong southwesterly winds over southeast Colorado. Brute force mixing will also help to force stronger southwest to westerly winds over most of the CWA later in the day, with very strong and dangerous winds spreading over the plains by later in the morning and through into the early evening hours. Also, there is some indication of a possible mountain wave taking shape downwind of the southern Sangres during the early morning hours with weak reverse shear showing up in some of the cross sections. This could further enhance winds at the surface if this comes to fruition. All of these factors aforementioned could produce winds of High Wind Warning criteria for several hours along portions of the southern I-25 corridor, mainly from southern Pueblo County down to Trinidad. Flow through the gap over La Veta Pass may also accelerate winds around the Walsenburg area. There will be areas of blowing dust possible again for the San Luis Valley and also the plains once the winds start peaking near High Wind criteria by later in the morning. These strong to severe crosswinds could cause impacts to high profile vehicles on the I-25 corridor from Pueblo County south to the CO/NM border. All things considered, confidence of winds reaching High Wind criteria are lessening a bit as the belt of the higher winds aloft moves much further southeast by the afternoon hours, with the more likely location hitting criteria over Baca County where the stronger jet max winds aloft will be located around peak daytime mixing. Most of the snow showers with this system will be confined to the higher terrain, but a few snow showers could spill over into the adjacent valleys and plains. It is possible that the Palmer Divide may receive an inch or two of snow before it is all said and done.An associated cold frontal boundary will move through by later in the day on Tuesday, which will allow for winds to switch to a more WNW'ly direction and advect in some cooler temperatures, therefore highs will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday, and below the seasonal average for most locations. Although it will be cooler, there will still be very dry air in place, with widespread areas of critical fire weather conditions likely over much of the plains, mainly south of Highway 50. Due to it being so dry in the lower levels, it is likely that much of the precipitation falling over the adjacent plains will be in the form of virga. This could also enhance some of these gusty winds during the afternoon on Tuesday. Higher pressure will subsequently build in with clearing and weakening winds by later in the evening as the low pressure moves further to the northeast of Colorado and winds on the backside turn to a more northerly direction. Wednesday through Sunday... Ensemble members and deterministic models continue to show a flattening of the longwave trough with more zonal flow in the upper levels going into the later half of the week. There looks to be a building and amplification of the ridge out west that will begin to move in over the region going into the weekend. A weak perturbation in the longwave trough as it is exiting will allow for a few snow showers on Wednesday to be possible, mainly over the mountains, but possibly over the plains as well. Best chances for the plains look to be over the northern I-25 corridor and Palmer Divide. The cP airmass in place will also keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs on Wednesday being below the seasonal average, and then a slow warming trend thereafter through the end of the week as the airmass becomes more modified under a building ridge. With drier air still in place and some gusty afternoon winds, there will be portions of the plains that could still have spotty critical fire weather conditions from Wednesday through Friday during the afternoon hours. By the weekend, as the well-amplified ridge moves over, conditions will be very dry with lighter winds and a break in the fire weather conditions. Temperatures will also become quite warm, and be slightly above average for the entire CWA. -Stewey && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1128 AM MDT Mon Apr 3 2023 For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected at both terminals for the next 24 hours. Southerly and southeasterly winds are expected to shift more southwesterly by around 19Z to 20Z, with gusts up to 45kt possible through max heating this afternoon. Gusts are expected to weaken through the overnight hours, with southerly and southeasterly winds taking over for a few hours after 06Z at both terminals. Mid- level cloud decks are expected to move in late in the period, with snow showers possible in the vicinity of KCOS tomorrow morning, especially north and west of the terminal. Blowing dust with MVFR visibility will also be possible at KPUB both afternoons, but have left mention out of the TAF for now as confidence is low. For KALS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with MVFR visibility in blowing dust possible this afternoon, mainly from around 20Z to 01Z. Southwesterly winds gusting up to 55kt are likely throughout this afternoon, with gusts to around 45kt continuing through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. Snow showers are likely along the higher terrain surrounding the terminal, but are not expected on station at this time. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ060. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ068. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ068. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-224- 226>237. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ069>071. High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ072>075-078>080- 087. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ227>233-235>237. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for COZ086>088-093-094-097>099. && SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...STEWARD AVIATION...EHR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 437 AM MDT Mon Apr 3 2023 COZ058>089-093>099-041045- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 437 AM MDT Mon Apr 3 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Very strong southwest winds and gusts and low relative humidity values are once again expected today, with widespread critical fire weather conditions anticipated across much of south central and southeast Colorado from mid morning through this evening. Damaging winds and gusts are expected across the southern mountains and San Luis Valley this afternoon into tonight, with blowing dust possible across the San Luis Valley. Snow is expected to increase in coverage and intensity across the Continental Divide later today into tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Severe and potentially damaging winds are expected through Tuesday evening over most of Southeast Colorado. High impacts to travel will be likely, especially for the southern I-25 corridor. Some areas of blowing dust will be possible in the San Luis Valley, and also the plains during the late morning and afternoon on Tuesday. Fire weather conditions are expected over much of the plains and the San Luis Valley during the afternoon and early evening on Tuesday. Snow over the Continental Divide will spread eastward on Tuesday, with some of the snow showers making it over the I-25 corridor and Palmer Divide. Highest snowfall amounts expected in the Sawatch Range and San Juan Mountains, with locally up to a foot possible. Spotty critical fire weather conditions will still be possible Wednesday through Friday during the afternoon hours. There will be snow possible over portions of the higher terrain and adjacent plains on Wednesday, mainly along the northern I-25 corridor and Palmer Divide area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be likely over portions of the region. RODRIGUEZ/STEWARD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT MON APR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0223 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S ALAMOSA 37.43N 105.87W
04/03/2023 M63 MPH ALAMOSA CO ASOS
ASOS STATION KALS ALAMOSA AIRPORT.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
241 PM MDT MON APR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0219 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NNW WALSENBURG 37.75N 104.84W
04/03/2023 M62 MPH HUERFANO CO MESONET
MESONET STATION CO030 025S05910RWS1RHS - 0.4
MI N OF B.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
257 PM MDT MON APR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0248 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S ALAMOSA 37.43N 105.87W
04/03/2023 M71 MPH ALAMOSA CO ASOS
ASOS STATION KALS ALAMOSA AIRPORT.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Recording came from a mesonet site.
Came from Alamosa Bergam Field Airport.
Measured from Wolf Creek Pass.
From Pueblo Memorial Airport.
Measured from Perry-Stokes Airport.
Measured from Springfield Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, April 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1098402, 1098403, 1098404, 1098405, 1098406, 1098407.