NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 27, 4:47 PM MST, 4 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 27, 4:47 PM MST, 4 hours 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
547 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023
Updated forecast to bump up snowfall amounts for the southern I-25
corridor, and to begin the advisories a few hours earlier. \/Hodanish
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023
Key messages:
1) A quick moving, but strong upper shortwave to move across
southern Colorado tonight into Friday.
2) Snow, heavy at times, expected over the Palmer Divide, Eastern
Mountains and Raton Mesa regions.
3) Strong northerly winds are expected behind a cold front from this
evening, through much of the day Friday.
Currently...satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much
of southeastern Colorado this afternoon, with a few bubbly cumulus
clouds developing over the Pikes Peak Region. Radar at this time is
clear with the exception of a few sprinkles under the cumulus.
Temperatures are quite nice, with 60s and even a few low 70s
across the Plains, and 60s across the San Luis Valley.
Rest of today...jet energy ahead of a strong shortwave trough will
settle across Colorado into this evening. Weak instability exists
with CAPE values of 150 to 300 j/kg, mainly from the Palmer Divide,
southeast across Kiowa County. This may be enough to spark a couple
of thunderstorms this afternoon. The main thunderstorm risk this
afternoon looks to be gusty outflow winds to near 50 mph. Pea size
hail may accompany stronger storms.
Tonight...the strong upper shortwave will drop south over western
Colorado overnight. A strong cold front associated with this upper
feature will drop south across the Plains by 9 PM. Northwesterly
flow will turn northeasterly upslope, with gusts 40 to 50 mph
expected. Peak winds look to occur after 9 PM and persist through
much of the overnight hours. Moisture behind the frontal boundary
looks to pool up along the Eastern Mountains, with strong
northeasterly upslope flow. This will allow for precipitation to
develop behind the front. A couple of regions are of concern for
snowfall. One is Teller County into the Palmer Divide. Weak
instability across the Palmer Divide, along with gusty north winds
could lead to snow squall potential. Near zero visibility is
possible along with slushy roadways, which could impact the early
morning commute. The second area is south, along the Sangre de
Cristo and Wet Mountains, south into the southern I-25 corridor over
Raton Pass. This area will see the potential for moderate to heavy
snow later tonight into Friday morning. As with the Palmer Divide,
the morning commute could be hazardous.
For the rest of the Plains, temperatures look to be a key factor in
areas that see snow. Currently, overnight lows in the mid 30s are
expected, however, heavier precipitation bands could drive snow
levels down to under 5 kft. At this time, for areas below 5 kft
look to remain all rain through morning. But, if temperatures can
cool off a bit more than currently progged, snow could be more
widespread across the Plains.
Given the northerly flow, areas along the lower Arkansas River
Valley will likely see limited amounts of precipitation. This is
mainly due to downslope effects off the Palmer Divide. But if winds
turn more northeasterly behind the cold front, more precipitation
may be possible.
Friday...the upper shortwave will quickly shift southeast across New
Mexico into the Texas Panhandle by Friday evening. Precipitation
will continue, especially for areas along the southern I-25
corridor, through the morning, finally dissipating during the
afternoon as the upper system pulls away from the area. Winds look
to remain strong across the Plains. Northwesterly winds, gusting in
excess of 35 mph will continue well into the afternoon. Temperatures
will remain cool, with most areas seeing highs in the 40s to low 50s.
As for snow totals, Teller County looks to see amounts in the 4 to 8
inch range, while areas on the Palmer Divide see 2 to 4 inches. For
areas over the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, most areas will
see 4 to 8 inches, however, higher amounts over the Wet Mountains
and southern Sangre de Cristo Ranges could see upwards of a foot of
snow. For lowe elevations of the southern I-25 corridor, 1 to 4
inches are possible. At this time, less than an inch of snow is
expected from Colorado Springs, south across Pueblo County.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023
Key Messages:
1) Relatively quiet weekend in regards to weather, with warming
temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
2) Warm next week, with daily chances of rain showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday - Sunday: For the weekend timeframe, a relatively quiet
period of weather is expected for southern Colorado. A ridge of high
pressure will build across the western US and slowly expand over the
region. This ridge will start to increase subsidence across southern
Colorado, and given that, mostly dry conditions are expected. With
that all said though, a weak and amorphous couple of short waves
will drift around the northern periphery of the ridge. These waves
are not expected to have strong lift with them, but will have enough
modest forcing to increase clouds each afternoon, and to pop
isolated showers along the mountains, particularly on Sunday.
Looking at temperatures, a warming trend is anticipated for southern
Colorado. With the ridge in place, and mostly clear skies, much of
the area is expected to warm to around and slightly above average
temperature values for this time of year.
Monday - Thursday: For the rest of the long term period, and most of
next week, an active Spring time pattern is anticipated. Ensemble
model guidance are in strong agreement about an omega block
developing across the US. This means the aforementioned ridge will
become squeezed over southern Colorado between two large low
pressure centers. Overall, with the ridge still in place, no
widespread precipitation is expected as synoptic descent persist.
With that said though, one of the large low pressures will develop
across the western US, where it will get "stuck" given the blocking
pattern. This will allow for numerous short wave troughs to swing
around the southern and eastern periphery of the low and over
Colorado throughout next week. These waves will bring daily
afternoon chances of isolated to scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms to southern Colorado. As for temperatures, another
warm set of days is expected for southern Colorado, with much of the
area slightly above average values for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023
KALS...VFR conditions into this evening with gusty northwest winds
at 25 to 30 kts. A boundary will push across the San Luis Valley
overnight with winds shifting northeasterly. An area of light snow
is likely with this boundary, in the 08-13z time period. Reduced
CIGS and VIS are likely, with CIGS lowering to near 2 kft. Improving
conditions are expected through Friday morning, returning to VFR by
afternoon.
KCOS...weak southeasterly winds will shift northwesterly this
afternoon with increasing cloud cover at the terminal. A brief rain
shower may be possible into this evening. A strong cold front is
expected this evening, with northerly winds gusting in excess of 40
kts possible. Rain and snow showers are expected overnight with low
CIGS and VIS, especially in the 03-08z time frame. Showers will
diminish into Friday morning, with a return to VFR conditions by
afternoon. Winds will remain strong out of the north well into the
afternoon.
KPUB...light winds will become northwesterly this afternoon. A cold
front is expected to arrive this evening, with winds shifting strong
northeasterly behind it. Gusts will approach 40 to 45 kts. Rain
and snow showers will be possible with the front, mainly in the 04-
08z time period. Low CIGS and VIS are expected through morning,
with improving conditions into the afternoon hours. Northerly
winds will remain strong into the afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Friday
for COZ072>075-079-080-087-088-094.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT
Friday for COZ081-082.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT
Friday for COZ084.
&&
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY