NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 9, 2:50 AM PST, 11 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 9, 2:50 AM PST, 11 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
250 AM PST Thu Mar 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Increasing rain and high elevation snow chances
arrive in the Sierra and Owens Valley by late this afternoon.
Shower chances will spread eastward tomorrow but chances remain
slim outside of the higher mountain terrain and Spring Mountains.
Gusty conditions are expected Friday as well. Drier conditions
resume over the weekend but additional storm systems will arrive
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...through Friday night.
Changes are afoot this morning as a rather powerful atmopsheric
river takes aim at the California coast. Early morning satellite
imagery depicts deep subtropical moisture already in position off
the central California coast, with a rich moisture tap extending
back to the Hawaiian Islands. Radar echoes are already on the
increase off the coastal waters, and this plume of moisture will
begin to creep inland through the morning, and reach our eastern
Sierra zones by mid-afternoon. Confidence remains high on a
significant precipitation event across the Sierra, with rising
snow levels.
Confidence decreases heading downslope into the Owens
Valley with regards to precipitation amounts, as high resolution
guidance continues to suggest a rather strong rainshadowing from
the US-395 corridor eastward, and this makes sense given the
stronger dynamic forcing will be focused further north across
Northern California and the Great Basin. However, precipitable
water values will be at record levels for mid-March and snow
levels will be climbing into the 8000-9000 foot range by Friday
morning. So given the existing snowpack in parts of the Owens
Valley, relatively warm rain falling on melting snow (especially
west of US-395), and potential for at least brief periods of
enhanced rain rates, the flood risk remains regardless of exactly
how much rain falls.
Even further east, high resolution guidance has trended upward
with precipitation chances in the Spring Mountains late tonight
into Friday. This is where fairly strong moisture transport
entrained in the westerly flow will be forced upslope and
effectively "wrung out" over the terrain barrier. Snow levels will
be quite high, climbing above 9000 feet for the duration of the
rain chances, so winter impacts will be minimal. However, some of
the snowpack below the 7000 foot level could see an accelerated
rate of snowmelt that could lead to enhanced streamflows in the
area.
Outside of the above mentioned areas, not expecting much in the
way of precipitation impacts. While the atmospheric profile will
be quite moist Friday, this is largely just deep subtropical
moisture entrained in the jetstream that is lacking any larger
scale forcing to produce appreciable rainfall. So while clouds
will be abundant on Friday, most areas will struggle to see much
more than sprinkles.
Outside of the precipitation concerns, winds will be on the
increase Friday as well. Abudnant cloud cover could reduce the
mixing potential slightly, but winds gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be
common regardless across much of the Mojave Desert and Arizona
Strip. Gusty west winds may also surface in the Owens Valley,
epsecially south of Owens Lake and impact travelers on the US-395
corridor. Given these concerns, posted a wind advisory for Friday
for the above mentioned areas. Strongest winds around the Las
Vegas Valley will be on the western and southern sides of town
where downslope winds off the Spring Mountains will be strongest.
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
By Saturday morning, the low pressure system which helped direct
the atmospheric river into the Sierra will have moved away into
the northern Plains, and the AR will be winding down, with only
light precip persisting in the Sierra and southern Great Basin.
Gusty west to southwest winds will persist in the Mojave Desert
for one more day before settling down Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Zonal flow/flat ridging should bring generally dry
weather Sunday with high clouds passing by, and above normal
temperatures.
The long-awaited warmth could be as much curse as blessing, as
melting snow will continue to swell creeks and rivers. By Monday,
the next AR is forecast to be dumping on the Pacific Northwest,
and the main forecast challenges for our area are when it gets
directed this far south and how long it sticks around. Tuesday is
the model consensus for the best chance of another round of
significant precip in the Sierra, with snow levels somewhat lower
(6000 to 7000 feet) than with the first AR. Upper level troughing
is forecast to pass by to the north on Tuesday, not only focusing
the AR into the Sierra, but also potentially bringing enough
forcing to allow light precip to spill over into the deserts.
There is significant model spread with another storm system
immediately on the heels of the Tuesday one. Some solutions bring
another round of precip to much of the area, heaviest in the
Sierra, Wednesday and Wednesday night; others take the trailing
system so far south that precip is limited to areas southeast of
I-15.
At this time, the biggest takeaways should be that the
snowpack will continue to melt, possibly causing flooding issues
in the typical places, and another round of rain and snow looks
like a decent bet for Tuesday. There is some potential for another
storm Wednesday, but lots and lots of uncertainty associated with
it. Details should become clearer as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds of less than 10kts will
continue into this evening. Initially, winds will favor a
southwesterly direction, but a gradual shift to the southeast is
likely by mid-day. Winds will return to a southwesterly direction
by early evening. Speeds will increase overnight, and southerly
winds with occasional gusts over 25kts are likely by Friday
morning. No operationally significant cloud cover is expected
through this evening. However, clouds will thicken, and bases will
lower to around 6kft by Friday morning and remain in place
through Friday evening.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light south to southwest winds of generally 10kts or
less can be expected across southern Nevada and the Colorado River
Valley today. At KDAG, light westerly winds will continue into the
evening before increasing to around 15kts overnight. At KBIH, light
northerly winds will turn southerly this afternoon, and light rain
is expected after 02Z but will likely become more scattered and
showery overnight. All TAF sites, except KBIH, will see SCT to BKN
mid and high clouds through the forecast period. CIGs at KBIH will
lower to around 3kft by this evening and could go as low as 2kft in
any areas of heavier precipitation overnight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Planz
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter