Flash Flooding and Damaging Wind in Arkansas, May 11 to 12, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
524 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night )
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

H500 disturbance with its corresponding sfc based MCV will
continue to work their way E/NE away from the area throughout the
day. Prior to their departure, persistent rain and thunderstorms
are expected to lift north over the state. Some of this activity
will be efficient rainfall producers with 1-2 inch per hour
rainfall rates or higher expected at times. Main concern still
remains from southern into central AR. Overnight rain has already
produced totals over 4 inches in spots.

Precip will be east of the area by later this evening with precip
wrapping up sooner across western parts of the state. A break is
expected but as a more pronounced H500 low rotates its way
northeast across the Central Plains additional rain and storms
will be possible into Friday. Temperatures will again be lower
today given the expected cloudcover and precip, but will warm up
more for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

For now, no sig changes to note regarding the long term fcst...low
magnitude rain and storm chances wl persist across much of the FA
thru the end of the weekend and into early next week. Broad H500
troughing wl be located over the Ern half of the Frnt Range,
extending across the Cntrl Plains and into the Midwest. Broad upper-
lvl high pressure is progged across much of the S/Ern US to begin
the PD. Where showers and storms are not seen, seasonably warm
condns wl cont thru the end of the weekend for portions of the FA.

Medium-range guidance has remained optimistic on the evolution and
approach of an early summer-type cdfrnt early next week. S/Ern US
upper-lvl high pressure looks to erode Sun thru Mon as N/Ern US to
S/Ern Canada troughing begins to amplify w/ a handful of shortwave
perturbations pivoting through the mean trough flow. This wl set up
a fetch of N/Wrly upper flow across the Cntrl third of the CONUS.
Low-lvl mass fields indicate sfc high pressure wl sag S/wrd thru the
Cntrl Plains, w/ a weak cdfrnt approaching the FA sometime during
the day Mon. 'Cold' air wl not necessarily accompany this frnt,
however, drier air should begin to filter into the region over the
next few days, providing some relief from the muggier and higher
dewpoint values that have been prevalent across much of the FA over
the last week. Low Chc PoPs wl accompany the FROPA, however given
the weak parameters of the synoptic environment, severe weather is
not anticipated.

Following the FROPA on Mon, sfc high pressure wl settle over the
Cntrl US, keeping Nrly sfc winds over the state thru the remainder
of the fcst PD. Much of the FA wl see temps moderate towards more
seasonable values, w/ slightly cooler overnight lows resuming. Low
Chc daily PoPs are currently fcst, as a handful of shortwave
perturbations look to maneuver thru the mean N/Wrly flow thru the
first half of next week. However, persistently Nrly sfc winds, and
lower afternoon buoyancy potential given lower sfc moisture content
should keep convective development to a minimum, w/ no significant
or severe wx expected thru the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will lift north across the state
through the early afternoon hours with precip tapering off from
west to east. Some activity may linger across E AR into the
evening hours. MVFR and lower conditions are expected through
nearly all of the TAF period. Winds will generally be out of the
S-SE but could vary in speed and direction near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  67  84  69 /  90  30  60  30
Camden AR         76  67  86  67 / 100  10  40  20
Harrison AR       74  65  83  65 / 100  30  60  20
Hot Springs AR    78  67  85  67 /  90  20  60  30
Little Rock   AR  78  69  86  70 / 100  20  50  30
Monticello AR     76  68  86  70 /  90  10  30  20
Mount Ida AR      79  67  84  66 /  90  30  60  30
Mountain Home AR  74  65  83  65 / 100  30  60  20
Newport AR        79  68  84  70 /  90  40  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     76  68  87  69 /  90  20  40  20
Russellville AR   77  67  84  68 / 100  40  60  30
Searcy AR         77  66  84  68 /  90  30  50  30
Stuttgart AR      77  69  86  70 /  90  30  40  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ042-043-052>055-
062-066-067-141-241-341.

&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
406 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-121000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
406 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the state
for much of the day. Severe weather chances are low. Heavy rain
is the main concern with some locations across central and
southern Arkansas set to receive an additional 2-4 inches of rain
which could lead to flash flooding. Some locations overnight
picked up several inches of rain already.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
coming days. Rain chances will be highest during the heat of the
afternoon and early evening. The severe weather threat should
stay limited at most. No other hazardous weather is forecast
through the long term period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not expected as this time.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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