A compact weather system moved through the region on Thursday May 11th and brought a round of severe storms during the late morning and afternoon hours. Most of the events were damaging winds but there were a few instances of hail and one tornado in SE Arkansas.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A compact weather system moved through the region on Thursday May 11th and brought a round of severe storms during the late morning and afternoon hours. Most of the events were damaging winds but there were a few instances of hail and one tornado in SE Arkansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 9:40 AM CST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1040 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023
Strong storms capable of producing tornadoes and hail up to
quarter size will be moving into NE Louisiana through the late
morning into afternoon hours. A few of these storms have already
produced tornadoes with strong TDS signatures earlier this
morning in north and central Louisiana. A tornado watch has been
issued for portions for most of N Louisiana and portions of
western MS until 5:00pm CDT. Flooding is also a main concern as
heavy downpours along with the training motions of these storms
can have areas in NE Louisiana & SW Mississippi to accumulate some
decent rainfall totals over the next few hours. We will continue
to keep you updated as these storms make their way eastward into
our CWA. /LCP/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023
Today through tonight: Isolated severe storms will be possible
today as global guidance continue to highlight a low pressure
system, enhanced by a mesoscale convective vortex, slowly shifting
northeastward across portions of northern Mississippi. Both the
GFS and the ECWMF are in better alignment with each other
regarding the timing of system. With steep lapse rates (between
6.5-7.4 C/km), decent MUCAPE values around 1800 j/kg, and some
decent deep layer shear, the environment overall appears favorable
for decent convection. Because of this, we are continuing to
advertise a "Marginal" risk (1/5) for severe weather for most of
our CWA. As mentioned in previous discussions, damaging wind gusts
along with hail up to quarter size will be the main hazards. A
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
In addition to the severe potential, some of these storms could
produce locally heavy downpours at times. Global ensemble guidance
show a much stronger QPF signal compared to yesterday. Because of
this, we are continuing to advertise a "Elevated" risk for flash
flooding along with a flash flood watch for northeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi. Rainfall amounts between 2 - 4 inches will
be possible during this timeframe with locally heavier amounts.
The severe potential should begin to decrease by tonight as
subtropical ridging builds from the ENE. /CRJ/
Friday through Wednesday: A weather pattern more typical of June
is expected for the weekend as anomalous ridging centers over the
forecast area. Moist, anticyclonic flow associated with the warm
ridge will support disorganized, diurnally driven showers and
storms as afternoon temperatures peak near to slightly above 90 in
many locations. There will be an upper level pattern change
however for early next week. The ridge is expected to break down
with northwest flow enveloping much of the eastern CONUS. This
should send a cold front through the area Monday and possibly
enhance storm potential. It's possible the front could hang up and
keep shower chances going through Wednesday, and high
temperatures should not be nearly as warm. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023
Current radar scans show a few scattered showers tracking northeast
across portions of northeast Louisiana. A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR will
occur across most of central Mississippi throughout the TAF period
due to low ceiling and the approaching line of convection. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to enter the forecast area by 15Z
Thursday and will last through 00Z Friday. Some of storms could
produce locally heavy rainfall at times which can lead to lower
visibilities across several TAF sites. Conditions will return to VFR
status by 03Z Friday after the main bulk of tracks northeastward out
of the area around this timeframe. Amendments may be necessary
as storms approach the CWA later this morning. /CRJ/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 84 67 88 68 / 80 40 50 30
Meridian 88 65 88 65 / 40 30 60 40
Vicksburg 81 67 88 69 / 90 20 40 20
Hattiesburg 87 67 87 68 / 50 50 50 30
Natchez 81 69 87 68 / 90 20 50 30
Greenville 78 67 87 70 / 90 30 30 20
Greenwood 83 67 87 70 / 80 40 50 30
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-047-053-
059>061.
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...None.
&&
LCP/EC/CRHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 ARZ074-075-MSZ034-035-121615- Ashley-Chicot-Washington-Humphreys- 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size. A tornado cannot be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Early this morning through this afternoon, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight. MSZ018-019-121615- Bolivar-Sunflower- 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Wednesday. MSZ025>033-121615- Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw- Oktibbeha- 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Wednesday. LAZ007>009-MSZ047-121615- Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Warren- 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Today Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Today, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high water. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight. LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ053-059>061-121615- Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia- Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS- 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Early this morning through this afternoon, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high water. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight. MSZ036-065-073-121615- Holmes-Covington-Lamar- 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size. A tornado cannot be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight. MSZ040>043-048-049-054-055-062-063-121615- Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Hinds-Rankin-Copiah-Simpson- Lincoln-Lawrence- 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Early this morning through this afternoon, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight. MSZ037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-066-074-121615- Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton- Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jones-Forrest- 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size. A tornado cannot be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight. MSZ064-072-121615- Jefferson Davis-Marion- 1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight. 11 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. *FLOODING* Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely. Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible. Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely. Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/ ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1054 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023
LAZ007-111630-
Morehouse LA-
1054 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Morehouse Parish through 1130 AM CDT...
At 1054 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Sterlington, or 10 miles northwest of Bastrop, moving
northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Morehouse Parish.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for southeastern
Arkansas...and northeastern Louisiana.
&&
LAT...LON 3298 9208 3300 9207 3301 9207 3301 9182
3276 9206 3280 9205 3282 9207 3283 9207
3284 9206 3287 9208 3293 9207 3296 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 206DEG 27KT 3285 9208
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
19PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1247 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE TALLULAH 32.42N 91.15W
05/11/2023 M52 MPH MADISON LA PUBLIC
A 52 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT A PRIVATE
WEATHER STATION AT THE SCOTT AIRPORT NEAR
TALLULAH.
&&
DLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1256 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1204 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNE ARCHIBALD 32.39N 91.75W
05/11/2023 RICHLAND LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWNED.
&&
KPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1259 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023
ARZ074-111900-
Ashley AR-
1259 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Ashley
County through 200 PM CDT...
At 1259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Berlin, or 8 miles southeast of Hamburg, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Wilmot around 115 PM CDT.
Parkdale around 125 PM CDT.
Portland around 135 PM CDT.
Montrose around 140 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for southeastern
Arkansas.
&&
LAT...LON 3335 9146 3301 9146 3301 9178 3324 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 251DEG 19KT 3312 9170
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DLThe Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:14 UTC.
27 thunderstorm wind, 6 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees downed in town.
A few trees downed on the south side of town.
Tree down across old port Gibson Road.
Tree down near Middle Road and Old Port Gibson.
Tree downed near Satartia.
Tree downed near Bentonia.
Tree downed near little Yazoo.
Tree blocking Road southwest of Pocahontas.
Tree downed on MacLean road.
Tree downed on Davis and Dunn Roads.
Two trees downed in the median between mile markers 62 and 63 on Interstate 55.
Tree downed on spillway road.
Tree downed near Holly Bush and Highway 43.
Trees downed around Goodman and Pickens Mississippi.
Tree fell on a shed in Lexington.
Couple trees downed in the western part of the county including one on County Road 4202 and one near Mcadams.
Golfball size hail reported near Roxie.
Tree down on Highway 16 West.
Trees downed on Middleton Road and Fairground Street in Winona.
Quarter size hail fell.
Tree downed on Mississippi 413 in Kilmichael.
Tree downed blocking Highway 487.
Tree downed on Highway 18 near Puckett.
Tree down on Concord Bethsalem Road.
Tree down across the Trace near mile marker 198.
Quarter size hail fell near Bogue Chitto Mississippi.
Trees and power lines downed along Lake Valley Drive near Westwood Road.
Penny to quarter sized hail fell for about four minutes.
A utility pole was damaged in the Zero Community.
Tree downed in the Carmichael Community.
Tree downed in the Glade Commnunity.
Quarter size hail fell near Oak Grove Mississippi.
Hail up to the size of nickels fell on the south side of Hattiesburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1107390, 1107391, 1107404, 1107399, 1107393, 1107394, 1107395, 1107397, 1107406, 1107392, 1107428, 1107412, 1107415, 1107396, 1107427, 1107398, 1107431, 1107407, 1107401, 1133668, 1107403, 1107408, 1107420, 1107411, 1107410, 1107433, 1107419, 1107434, 1107442, 1107425, 1107426, 1107436, 1152744.