Multiple mesoscale convective systems developed in northwest flow aloft and tracked across the Mid-South. The first tracked from southeast Missouri and southwest Kentucky into West Tennessee during the early-mid afternoon on July 18th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Multiple mesoscale convective systems developed in northwest flow aloft and tracked across the Mid-South. The first tracked from southeast Missouri and southwest Kentucky into West Tennessee during the early-mid afternoon on July 18th. The second mesoscale convective system developed over southern Missouri and tracked across northeast Arkansas, the Memphis metropolitan area, and north Mississippi. These systems were supported by a very moist and unstable airmass with surface-based convective available potential energy values exceeding 6000 J/kg and precipitable water values greater than 2 inches. Adequate amounts of wind shear aloft helped to organize storms as well. Numerous severe storms occurred across the Mid-South with a few reports of large hail and many reports of damaging wind. The Memphis area was among the hardest hit with power outages to over 130,000 utility customers in Shelby County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 1:57 PM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
A complex of showers and thunderstorms will affect portions of the
Mid-South mostly across portions of west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River into this evening with a few strong to severe
thunderstorms possible through early evening. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday mainly north
of I-40, then gradually spreading across the remainder of the
Mid-South for Friday into Saturday as a weak cold front moves into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Very hot and humid conditions will
persist ahead of the approaching cold front with heat index values
ranging between 105 to 115 degrees on Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
GOES-16 Satellite trends depict a mature Mesoscale Convective
System (MCS) over portions of southeast Missouri and western
Kentucky. KNQA/KPAH WSR-88D radar trends show the leading edge of
convection over portions of the Missouri Bootheel and Northwest
Tennessee gradually propagating east-southeast with time.
Otherwise, a hot and humid airmass is in place across the Mid-
South with surface temperatures mainly in the lower 90s with
surface dewpoints in the 70s to lower 80s as low-level moisture
pools ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary located along the I-70
corridor. Strong to severe thunderstorm and heat concerns remain
the primary focus in this afternoon's forecast issuance.
The aforementioned MCS will continue to propagate east-southeast
into the Tennessee Valley through this evening. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are possible along the southern periphery of
this system for areas mainly north and east of a line from
Blytheville, AR to Jackson and Savannah, TN. Surface-based CAPE
values around 5000 J/kg, moderately-steep 700-500 mb layer mid-
level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, 0-6 km Bulk Shear values around
40 kts may support a strong to severe thunderstorm threat for the
remainder of the afternoon into perhaps early evening. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat for any thunderstorms that become
severe. QPF values across portions of northwest Tennessee near the
Tennessee River may receive 1 to 2 inches of rain through late
tonight. Confidence is low that these areas will exceed Flash
Flood guidance and subsequently held off on any flood watches for
the time being.
Elsewhere, the Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning for areas
around and southwest of Memphis along the Mississippi River will
continue through early this evening. Lows tonight will remain
quite warm this evening. A very hot and humid airmass is expected
to build across the Mid-South on Wednesday as temperatures rise
into the middle to upper 90s. These very hot temperatures combined
with surface dewpoints pooling across the region will result in
heat index values rising to between 105 to 115 degrees with the
warmest readings occurring mostly along and west of the
Mississippi River. An Excessive Heat Warning was issued for areas
along and west of the Mississippi River and a Heat Advisory for
the remainder of the forecast area from noon through 8 PM
Wednesday. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Wednesday and Thursday with the
Latest mid to long range model solutions indicate the surface
boundary will begin to move south into the Lower Mississippi
Valley Friday into Saturday as mid-level heights weaken and a
series of shortwaves move through the northwest flow aloft. This
will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms for most
of the forecast area. Cooler and slightly drier air will build in
for late weekend into early next week.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
Highly uncertain forecast this afternoon and evening as we watch a
thunderstorm complex move east southeast across Missouri.
Confidence is highest that MKL will see on station thunderstorms
and lowest at TUP and JBR. Included a tempo for TSRA at both MEM
and MKL based on HRRR timing. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions due to
heavy rain can be expected with on station thunderstorms along
with gusty wind, most likely from the west to northwest.
Overnight, thunderstorms should diminish in both coverage and
intensity. LLWS is expected after midnight tonight at JBR and MKL
and may last through mid morning especially at JBR. Gradient winds
tomorrow are expected to increase to around 10kts with gusts
around 20kt.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-
058.
MO...Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-002-008-012-
013-020>022.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-
010-011.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ002>006-009-
013>017-021>024.
TN...Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
TNZ001-019-048-049-088.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ088-089.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ002>004-
020>022-050>055-089>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDSPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
304 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0250 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 NW Middle Fork 35.89N 88.55W
07/18/2023 Carroll TN Fire Dept/Rescue
Power lines down from winds causing a fire.
&&
DNMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0251 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 E Huntingdon 36.01N 88.37W
07/18/2023 Carroll TN Fire Dept/Rescue
Power lines down.
&&
DNMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
308 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0140 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Tiptonville 36.38N 89.47W
07/18/2023 Lake TN Public
A carport was lifted and tossed on TN 78
across from Lake County Health Dept in
Tiptonville. Time is radar estimated.
&&
DNMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
319 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
TNZ020-050>052-182045-
Madison TN-Crockett TN-Haywood TN-Gibson TN-
319 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Crockett,
southwestern Gibson, northeastern Haywood and central Madison
Counties through 345 PM CDT...
At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alamo, or 13 miles west of Humboldt, moving southeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Humboldt, Fairview, Alamo, Bells, Three Way, Adair, Carroll,
Maury City, Gadsden, Neely, Quincy, Huntersville, Westover, Jones,
Gilmore, Mason Grove, Coxville, Fruitvale and Youngs Crossing.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for
west Tennessee.
&&
LAT...LON 3579 8928 3590 8911 3572 8864 3551 8897
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 309DEG 33KT 3579 8914
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MJ<!doctype html>
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</html>The Memphis radar (KNQA), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:42 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Power line down on Highway 61 south of Blytheville near Highway 312.
A large tree was knocked down near Gee Street in Jonesboro.
A tree was knocked down near Oak Avenue and Main Street along with other reports of trees down in Jonesboro.
A tree was knocked down on Freer Road.
A tree and flag pole were knocked down in Trumann.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1125738, 1125754, 1125750, 1125732, 1125758, 1125760, 1127562.