Hail in Arkansas, January 11, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
601 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Temperatures are topping out in the 70s Wednesday afternoon (more
than 20 degrees above average in places). METSAT imagery shows low
circulation over SW KS this afternoon. This system will track ESE,
moving across S MO/N AR through Thursday morning.

The storm system and cold front will move across the state
overnight, producing rain and isolated storm chances. Better chances
for thunderstorms will be across NNE portions of the CWA (closer to
the system circulation). One-quarter to one-half inch of rainfall is
expected across portions of west and north AR, with lesser amounts
elsewhere. Higher amounts will be possible where strong to severe
storms develop. At this time, the threat for severe weather remains
marginal, with large hail and damaging wind being the main hazards
expected.

Some of the moisture wrapping around the system circulation may
result in a brief period of winter precipitation types across
northern portions of the CWA Thursday morning, before warming/drying
up enough to produce slight chances for drizzle Thursday afternoon,
before moisture moves out of the area. Dry conditions are forecast
through the remainder of the short term period.

Low temperatures through Thurs morning will be in the lower to mid
30s across NW AR, in the lower 40s to mid 50s elsewhere in the
state. Temps will drop into the lower 20s to lower 30s by Friday
morning, with highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s Friday afternoon
(near average for this time of year).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

The period will initiate with strong NW flow over Arkansas with
the upper ridge planted over the Southern Plains. This will lead
to a predominately dry and cool weekend. Expect a pattern shift
by early next week with the return of SW flow by late Sunday. Went
ahead and increased POPs heading into the early part of the week
as zonal flow provides an axis for several storm systems to move
across the Natural State. With warm air in place and arctic air
cut off to the north, precipitation will remain in liquid form
Monday then again Wednesday. Wednesdays system looks to be a
little more organized, but the models are hinting at an even more
robust cut off low by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Storm system to our W will track quickly just to the north of AR
later tngt into Thu. Sctd convection wl accompany this sys as the
assocd CDFNT pushed thru the FA. Most of the coverage wl be
confined to N AR, along and just ahead of the fnt. South winds wl
cont to incrs ahead of the sys tngt, then veer to the W/SW and
eventually NW on Thu. VFR conds wl prevail most of the night, with
MVFR CIGS returning along and behind the FROPA. Cannot rule out a
RASN mix at KHRO/KBPK before precip ends Thu mrng.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
221 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-121100-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
221 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible this evening and overnight as a cold front moves
southeast into the state. The overall threat for strong to severe
weather remains low...but an isolated strong storm could be
seen...mainly over portions of northern and northeast Arkansas.
Otherwise...the threat for hazardous weather will remain low
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Breezy conditions will be noted on Thursday, with northwest winds
at 15 to 20 mph and gusts over 30 mph in places. Otherwise, no
significant weather impacts are expected.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

71/61